The Cycle, Issue 9: A's in the East
Eastern Division Offseason Report Cards, Grades for all 30 teams, the Benintendi trade, and more . . .
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
I conclude my Offseason Report Cards series with the ten Eastern Division teams and compile the grades for all 30 teams.
Also:
Transaction Reactions: The Benintendi trade, Marwin, Mazara, an accidental challenge trade, riding the waive, and more . . .
Feedback
Closing Credits
Before we get started, word of mouth is very important to the growth and survival of The Cycle. Please spread the word, on social media and in person. Let people know how much you like The Cycle, and why they should sign up!
If you have any trouble seeing all of this issue on your email, you can read the entire issue at cyclenewsletter.substack.com. If you are already reading it there because you haven’t subscribed yet, you can fix that by clicking here:
The Cycle will be moving to paid subscriptions soon, but it remains free for now.
Offseason Report Cards: Eastern Parade
Spring Training starts on the other side of Presidents’ Day weekend, so this week The Cycle has been evaluating how every team did this offseason. I graded the Hot Stove performances of the teams in the American and National League Central Divisions on Monday, and the Western Divisions on Wednesday. Today, I continue with the NL and AL East.
To provide context for the grades, and maintain the theme of The Cycle, I’ve assigned each team a “season” representing where they are in the lifecycle of a contending team. Summer teams are full-blown contenders. Winter teams are deep in a rebuild. Spring and Fall are the in-between stages. Not every Spring team will blossom into Summer, and not every Fall team is headed for a cold Winter. Only Winter teams are graded on a curve. After all, an ice-cold team can only thaw so much on the Hot Stove. Also included, for context, is my rough estimation of what each team’s Biggest Needs were heading into this offseason.
Following the Season and Biggest Needs, I’ve listed all of the players each team has Added to their 40-man roster this offseason, Renewed (those are free agents they’ve re-signed), and Subtracted. The last category only includes players who appeared in the majors with the team in question in 2020 (or opted out or spent the year on the major-league disabled list) and either reached free agency or were otherwise acquired by another team after the end of the 2020 regular season. For each of those players, I’ve indicated their current team with a three-letter abbreviation in parentheses. Unsigned free agents are indicated with “(FA)”. Teams are presented in order of the final 2020 standings.
American League East
Tampa Bay Rays
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: catcher
Added: RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Chris Archer, RHP Luis Patiño, C Francisco Mejía
Renewed: C Mike Zunino
Subtracted: LHP Blake Snell (SDP), RHP Charlie Morton (ATL), LHP Aaron Loup (NYM), LHP José Alvarado (PHI), RHP Aaron Slegers (LAA), RHP Edgar García (CIN), 1B Nate Lowe (TEX), OF Hunter Renfroe (BOS), OF Brian O’Grady (SDP), C Michael Pérez (PIT); RHP Oliver Drake (FA), LHP Sean Gilmartin (FA)
How one feels about the Rays’ offseason hinges on their opinion of the Blake Snell trade, and their opinion of the Blake Snell trade hinges on one’s faith in the Rays’ near-ready pitching prospects. Those prospects now include righty Luis Patiño, whom the Rays acquired in the Snell swap. Patiño is the consensus twentieth-best prospect in all of baseball according to the aggregated list I assembled two weeks ago, and the sixth-highest-ranking pitcher on that list. The Colombian right-hander has four above-average pitches (mid- to upper-90s fastball, slider, curve, and change) and saw some major-league action last year, but he’s also 21, skipped Triple-A, and could use a little more seasoning to refine his command.
That leaves the Rays with Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough, veteran offseason additions Michael Wacha and Chris Archer (the latter the oldest starter on the Rays’ roster by three years and possibly a shadow of his former self after having surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome last year), youngsters Josh Fleming and Shane McClanahan, both lefties who debuted in 2020, and Trevor Richards.
At this point in their careers, Snell is better than everyone on that list other than Glasnow, and he’s under contract for three more years, though his age-30 season, for a mere $38.5 million, which is less than Trevor Bauer will make this year alone. Still, despite his 2018 Cy Young award (which should have gone to Justin Verlander), Snell is not an ace. He might be a number-two, which is more than the Padres need him to be. He certainly gets plenty of strikeouts, but his control is soft, he allows more than his share of home runs, and he has never pitched a full season. Even in his Cy Young year, he missed the second half of July and averaged fewer than six innings per start.
The Rays’ farm system is widely considered the best in baseball entering the 2021 season. Baseball Prospectus thinks it could be one of the best collections of minor league talent ever. When BP ranked the organization’s top talents under the age of 26 two weeks ago, Patiño and catcher Francisco Mejía both made the top six; righty Cole Wilcox ranked tenth. The Rays acquired all three in the Snell trade, which also netted another catching prospect with significant upside in Blake Hunt. That’s the quality of talent the Rays got back for a non-ace.
Of course, the Rays offseason wasn’t only the Snell trade. They also let Charlie Morton leave for a mere one-year $15 million contract and traded first baseman Nate Lowe to the Rangers. The Rays had no room for Lowe, but keeping Morton, who finished third in the Cy Young voting for the Rays in 2019 and has been great in the postseason (5-1 with a 2.10 ERA in six postseason starts for Tampa Bay), would have made the Snell trade go down easier.
Grade: C
New York Yankees
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: a middle infielder,starting pitching
Added: RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Darren O’Day, CF Greg Allen
Renewed: 2B DJ LeMahieu
Subtracted: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (NPB), RHP J.A. Happ (MIN), RHP Adam Ottavino (BOS), RHP Tommy Kahnle (LAD), RHP Jonathan Holder (CHC), LHP Luis Avilán (WDC), RHP Miguel Yajure (PIT), SS Jordy Mercer (WDC); OF Brett Gardner (FA), C Erik Kratz (FA), LHP James Paxton (FA)
Re-signing LeMahieu was a bit of a foregone conclusion, but also an essential move. Yes, the Yankees could have signed a shortstop who would have pushed Gleyber Torres back to second base and improved the Yankees’ defense up the middle, but LeMahieu was better the last two years than any of the available shortstops, and Torres’s fielding should improve as he reacclimates to what was his original position. Remember, there was a shortened spring training and only 60 regular season games last year.
As for the Yankees’ pitching additions, they’re all upside plays that come with serious concerns. For starters, Kluber, Taillon, and O’Day have combined for just 95 2/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, with Kuber and Taillon making just 15 starts between the two of them, and O’Day tossing just 21 2/3 innings of relief. O’Day is 38 and fragile. Kluber is 35 and increasingly fragile. Taillon hasn’t pitched competitively since having his second Tommy John surgery in August 2019. As I wrote in the very first issue of The Cycle, the list of pitchers who have held up under a starters workload after a second Tommy John surgery is alarmingly short. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka returned to Japan after failing to get a satisfactory offer from a major-league team.
Maybe it all works out. I’d love to see that for the simple reason that I’d like to see all three of those pitchers succeed, but the expectations for that trio should be set low, and that might require lowering the expectations for the Yankees, as well.
Grade: C
Toronto Blue Jays
Season: Spring
Biggest Needs: third base, pitching
Added: CF George Springer,SS Marcus Semien, LHP Steven Matz, RHP Kirby Yates, RHP David Phelps, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP Joel Payamps
Renewed: RHP Robbie Ray
Subtracted: RHP Chase Anderson (PHI), RHP Ken Giles (SEA), RHP Anthony Bass (MIA), RHP Sean Reid-Foley (NYM), RHP Wilmer Font (KBO), RHP Hector Perez (CIN), IF Jonathan Villar (NYM), UT Brandon Dury (NYM); IF Travis Shaw (FA), IF Joe Panik (FA), C Caleb Joseph (FA), RHP Taijuan Walker (FA), RHP Matt Schoemaker (FA)
Springer and Semien represent the best two-player free-agent combo any team landed this offseason, unless you count the Phillies re-signing J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. Even then, it’s open to debate. Signing Semien to play second base and pushing Cavan Biggio to third was a creative solution to the team’s hole at the latter position, and Springer’s $150 million, six-year deal was the biggest contract given out by any team this offseason (despite what Trevor Bauer might tell you). I applaud the Jays for their boldness there. Unfortunately, they fell short on the other side of the ball, where their need was greater.
The Jays needed an upgrade in the rotation, but their only moves there were to re-sign Robbie Ray, who was terrible last year, and trade for lefty Steven Matz, who was worse. They did better in the bullpen, betting on Kirby Yates to rebound from surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow and adding depth with righties David Phelps and Tyler Chatwood. However, Phelps gives up too many home runs (see below), and Chatwood issues too many walks. The Jays are betting a lot, including their one year of control over Semien, that Nate Pearson, the consensus 16th-best prospect in baseball (and fourth-ranked pitcher), will break out, and that Ray and Ross Stripling will somehow pitch better in 2021. I’m skeptical and wonder, again, why this team couldn’t keep Tanaka in the States. Still, you can’t accuse them of sitting idle.
Grade: B-
Baltimore Orioles
Season: Winter
Biggest Needs: patience
Added: SS Fredy Galvis, IF Yolmer Sánchez, 2B Jahmai Jones, RHP Ashton Goudeau, RHP Tyler Wells, RHP Mac Sceroler
Subtracted: SS José Iglesias (LAA), IF Hanser Alberto (KCR), UT Andrew Velazquez (NYY), 1B Renato Núñez (DET), OF Dwight Smith Jr. (CIN), C Bryan Holaday (AZD), RHP Alex Cobb (LAA), Asher Wojciechowski (NYY), RHP David Hess (TBR); RHP Branden Kline (FA)
The Orioles were surprisingly not terrible in the shortened 2020 season, but they seem to have correctly recognized that as a fluke. Indeed, the bullpen over-performed, a classic fluke-season symptom, as did many of Baltimore’s hitters, who were still barely league average. So, the O’s traded the veteran hitter who had the most uncharacteristic season (shortstop José Iglesias, who had an 160 OPS+ over 150 plate appearances in his age-30 season after posting an 84 OPS+ in his twenties). Having enjoyed a healthy and effective season from Alex Cobb in the penultimate year of his contract, they flipped the veteran groundballer, as well. In both cases, Baltimore identified the Angels as their mark.
Neither of the two young pitchers they got for Iglesias has thrown a competitive professional pitch in the United States, and Jahmai Jones, the lone return for Cobb, hasn’t been productive above High-A. Still, the Orioles know where they are in their rebuild, and they avoided jumping the gun, which is its own kind of accomplishment. Kudos to Baltimore, also, for replacing Iglesias with a legitimate major-league shortstop in Galvis, though he won’t make them significantly less difficult to watch in 2021.
Grade: C
Boston Red Sox
Season: Winter
Biggest Needs: pitching (all kinds)
Added: CF Franchy Cordero, OF Hunter Renfroe, UT Marwin González, UT Enrique Hernández, RHP Garrett Richards, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Matt Andriese, RHP Garrett Whitlock, MGR Alex Cora
Renewed: LHP Martín Pérez
Subtracted: OF Andrew Benintendi (KCR), IF José Peraza (NYM), IF Tzu-Wei Lin (MIN), 2B Dustin Pedroia (retired), C Deivy Grullón (CIN), LHP Mike Kickham (LAD), RHP Robert Stock (CHC), Domingo Tapia (SEA); RHP Andrew Triggs (FA), RHP Robinson Leyer (FA), RHP Collin McHugh (FA), 1B Mitch Moreland (FA), CF Jackie Bradley Jr. (FA)
In its immediate wake, the Benintendi trade (detailed in Transaction Reactions below) reflects poorly on Benintendi. The Red Sox are the organization that knows him best, and it has decided he’s not worth keeping around at arbitration prices for two more years. However, in time, it could reflect poorly on the Red Sox. Time will have to tell on that one. In the meantime, the Sox have made numerous compelling but low-stakes additions to their lineup.
González and Hernández can play almost anywhere and can keep a team from collapsing at any one position. Ex-Padres Cordero and Renfroe have tremendous power and neither has ever played his home games in a hitter-friendly ballpark. All four are unlikely to all start at the same time, at least not regularly, but they add some depth and intrigue to a team that, just two seasons removed from its last championship, has shed the entire starting outfield from that title run. Then again, all four had on-base percentages below .300 last year.
What the Sox really needed, however, was pitching. Richards, like the other ex-Padres, is an intriguing former prospect, but he’s also a pitcher who has struggled to stay healthy and whose fly-ball rates have been increasing. He’s a darn sight better than Martín Pérez, however. Ottavino and Andriese are more reliably competent, but none of those four is the solution Boston needed. If Alex Cora can win with this bunch without cheating, he’ll have more than repaired his standing as one of the game’s top managers.
Grade: C-
National League East
Atlanta Braves
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: an outfielder, veteran starting pitching
Added: RHP Charlie Morton, LHP Drew Smyly, RHP Víctor Arano, IF Jack Mayfield
Renewed: LF Marcell Ozuna, RHP Josh Tomlin
Subtracted: OF Adam Duvall (MIA); OF Nick Markakis (FA), OF Scott Schebler (LAA), C Tyler Flowers (FA), UT Charlie Culberson (TEX), RHP Darren O’Day (NYY), RHP Mike Foltynewicz (TEX), RHP Jhoulys Chacín (NYY); SS Adeiny Hechavarría (FA), RHP Mark Melancon (FA), Shane Greene (FA), LHP Tommy Milone (FA), LHP Cole Hamels (FA)
See their Biggest Needs above? How does re-signing Marcell Ozuna plus one-year deals for Charlie Morton and a rejuvenated Drew Smyly sound? Sure, Morton’s 37, and Smyly’s fragile, but the Braves did exactly what they needed to do, and how many teams did that?
Grade: A
Miami Marlins
Season: Spring
Biggest Needs: an outfielder, relief pitching
Added: OF Adam Duvall, RHP Anthony Bass, RHP Adam Cimber, LHP Ross Detwiler, RHP Paul Campbell, RHP Zach Pop
Subtracted: OF Matt Joyce (PHI), C Francisco Cervelli (retired), RHP José Ureña (DET), RHP Jordan Yamamoto (NYM), RHP Nick Vincent (TEX), RHP Ryne Stanek (HOU), LHP Stephen Tarpley (NYM), RHP Robert Duggar (SEA); IF Logan Forsythe (FA), UT Sean Rodríguez (FA), C Ryan Lavarnway (FA), RHP Brad Boxberger (FA), RHP Josh A. Smith (FA), LHP Brandon Leibrandt (FA), LHP Brian Moran (FA), P Pat Venditte (FA), RHP Johan Quezada (STL)
The Marlins also did a good job of identifying their needs this winter, but they were less effective than the Braves in addressing them. Adam Duvall injects a veteran bat with serious pop into their outfield mix, but he’s not an everyday player on a good team (such as last year’s Braves). Bass, Cimber, and Detwiler add depth to the bullpen, and Bass could compete with Yimi García for closing opportunities, but none of those three are dominant relief arms. Campbell and Zach Pop are both Rule 5 picks, who have to stay on the roster or be returned to their former teams; neither has pitched above Double-A, and Pop is working his way back from May 2019 Tommy John surgery. I hope Marlins fans enjoyed that fluky playoff run last year.
Grade: C-
Philadelphia Phillies
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: catcher, shortstop, relief pitching
Added: RHP Chase Anderson, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Archie Bradley, RHP Samuel Conrood, LHP José Alvarado, SS C.J. Chatham
Renewed: C J.T. Realmuto, SS Didi Gregorius
Subtracted: UT Phil Gosselin (LAA), OF Kyle Garlick (ATL), RHP David Phelps (TOR), RHP Heath Hembree (CLE), RHP Deolis Guerra (OAK), LHP Cole Irvin (OAK), RHP Reggie McClain (NYY), RHP Trevor Kelley (CHC), LHP Garrett Cleavinger (LAD); OF Jay Bruce (FA), RHP Jake Arrieta (FA), RHP Tommy Hunter (FA), RHP Brandon Workman (FA), RHP Adam Morgan (FA), LHP José Álvarez (FA), RHP David Robertson (FA)
Sometimes the greatest gift is to keep what you already had. Retaining Realmuto and Gregorius was huge for Philadelphia, even if it doesn’t really move the needle from last year’s sub-.500 performance. One reason for that performance was an astonishing 7.06 bullpen ERA, but that number is deceptive in a few different ways. To start, it is obviously fluky. Second, it was driven up by the team’s fringe relievers; the guys who only made a handful of appearances. Of the 13 Phillies relievers who threw fewer than 10 innings for Philadelphia last year (not counting infielder Neil Walker), nine of them posted four-digit ERAs for the Phils last year. The team’s more established relievers weren’t nearly as terrible, and two of the worst, Adam Morgan and Brandon Workman, are gone via free agency. Trimming the fat and adding Archie Bradley to the core group should provide a very different result in 2021.
Grade: A
New York Mets
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: starting pitching
Added: SS Francisco Lindor, C James McCann, IF Jonathan Villar, CF Albert Almora Jr., OF José Martínez, CF Khalil Lee, RHP Carlos Carrasco, LHP Joey Lucchesi, , RHP Jordan Yamamoto, RHP Sean-Reid Foley, RHP Trevor May, LHP Aaron Loup, RHP Jacob Barnes, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Yennsy Díaz
Renewed: RHP Marcus Stroman
Subtracted: SS Andrés Giménez, SS Ahmed Rosario, IF Jed Lowrie (OAK), C Wilson Ramos (DET), CF Jake Marisnick (CHC), RHP Michael Wacha (TBR), LHP Steven Matz (TOR), LHP Chasen Shreve (PIT), LHP, RHP Erasmo Ramírez (DET), RHP Paul Sewald (SEA), Hunter Strickland (TBR); 3B Todd Frazier (FA), IF Eduardo Núñez (FA), OF Ryan Cordell (FA), OF Yoenis Céspedes (FA), C Robinson Chirinos (FA), C René Rivera, RHP Rick Porcello (FA), Justin Wilson (FA), RHP Jared Hughes (FA), RHP Ariel Jurado (FA)
Marcus Stroman should really count as “Added,” because he opted out of last season. So, the top line here is that the Mets added Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, and James McCann. That’s a tremendous offseason all by itself. Those aren’t just good-to-great players, they’re excellent character guys, as well, great ambassadors for the game and the team’s new era under new owner Steve Cohen, and great leaders in the clubhouse.
But that’s not all! They made depth moves, as well. Righty Trevor May and lefty Aaron Loup should be key arms in the bullpen. Jonathan Villar adds a starting-quality backup to the infield. Slick-fielding righty Albert Almora Jr. serves as a complementary piece to a heavily left-handed and bat-first outfield. José Martínez adds another righty bat to the bench, and Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto serve as rotation depth. The Mets may not be done yet, but they’ve already aced this offseason.
Grade: A+
Washington Nationals
Season: Fall
Biggest Needs: first base, starting pitching
Added: 1B Josh Bell, OF Kyle Schwarber, C Alex Avila, LHP Jon Lester, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, LHP Sam Clay
Renewed: 1B Ryan Zimmerman, IF Josh Harrison
Subtracted: 1B Eric Thames (NPB), 2B Howie Kendrick (retired), IF Wilmer Difo (PIT), RF Adam Eaton (CWS), CF Michael A. Taylor (KCR), C Kurt Suzuki (LAA), RHP Wil Crowe (PIT), LHP Sean Doolittle (CIN), RHP James Bourque (CHC); IF Asdrúbal Cabrera (FA), UT Brock Holt (FA), RHP Javy Guerra (FA), LHP Sam Freeman (FA)
Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber are upside plays worth making, but it says something about the Nats’ offseason that those two bat-only players, both coming off lousy seasons at the plate, were the best moves they made. I mean, sure, okay, Brad Hand. Hand’s results have been great, but his velocity has been declining, and some of the advanced stats have been warning of a coming fall. That fall has already come for the 37-year-old Jon Lester, who looks thoroughly cooked. Also, backup catcher Alex Avila’s reputation as a hitter far outstrips the reality.
Schwarber, who was non-tendered by the Cubs, is entering his walk year, but Bell has two years of team control remaining. Everything went in the wrong direction for Bell last year (walks, strikeouts, contact, his launch angle was way down), so there’s a lot of work to do there, but the reward could be great. It’s also possible that this offseason could prove to be a total bust for the Nats, instead of just half of one.
Grade: C-
Here, then, is the distribution of the grades of all 30 teams. Note, I raised the Royals from a C to a C+ in light of their acquisition of Andrew Benintendi, a gamble worth taking for a second-division team like Kansas City.
I didn’t give out an A-, but the distribution seems pretty fair. I didn’t pay any attention it as I went, but there are 12 teams that graded above a C, and 13 that graded below, with the largest groups getting a C- or a C. That’s how the curve should work. There are still some quality free agents out there, and there may yet be some notable trades between now and Opening Day, but as things stand heading into the final weekend before camp’s open, the Mets won the winter. Of course, the summer is what counts.
Transaction Reactions
Royals acquire OF Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox for OF Franchy Cordero and two players to be named later. Mets acquire minor league OF Khalil Lee from Royals, send minor league RHP Josh Winckowski and a player to be named later to the Red Sox
First, let’s break down the pieces of this three-team deal:
The Royals get OF Andrew Benintendi for OF Franchy Cordero, OF Khalil Lee, and two PTBNLs
The Red Sox get OF Franchy Cordero, RHP Josh Winckowski, and three PTBNLs for OF Andrew Benintendi
The Mets get OF Kalil Lee for RHP Josh Winckowski and a PTBNL
Now let’s work our way back up that list. The Mets got Winckowski from the Blue Jays in the Steven Matz trade. I barely even gave him a mention in my reaction to that deal, calling the 22-year-old, “another undistinguished right-handed minor-league starter who did not pitch last year.” So, the Mets get a prospect that clearly interested them for two warm bodies. Good for them.
Lee, who will turn 23 in June, was the Royals’ third-round pick in 2016 and is on the 40-man roster. Those facts make him sound more fully formed than he is. An undersized left-handed hitter, Lee has speed but not power, will walk but will also strike out in abundance. He’s a centerfielder . . . maybe. There are pieces of a compelling player there, but Lee’s getting a bit old for them not to be coalescing. It didn’t help that, instead of debuting in Triple-A last year, he was limited to the Royals’ alternate training site. It will be interesting to see if the Mets can make anything out of him.
To me, despite the three teams and seven players involved, this boils down to a challenge trade of talented but frustrating outfielders: Benintendi for Cordero.
Both are 26-year-old left-handed hitters (Cordero is three months younger). Both can do a little bit of everything on the field. Benintendi is far more established, due in large part to Cordero’s lengthy injury history, but Benintendi is a player the Red Sox seemed eager to unload this offseason after an ugly season in which he struggled to get a hit (he went 4-for-39, .103) and missed a ton of time with a rib injury.
As AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2017, Benintendi hit 20 homers, stole 20 bases, reached base at a .352 clip, and played a superlative left field. The next year, he hit .290 with 41 doubles, six triples, 21 steals, and a 123 OPS+, a 4.5-win season per Baseball-Reference. He then made several key catches in the postseason as the Red Sox went on to win the World Series. In 2019, however, Benintendi’s batting average dropped 24 points despite an increase in BABIP, his walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong direction, he slugged just .379 outside of Fenway Park, he stole only half as many bases as the previous two seasons, his play in the field dipped below average, and he stopped hitting almost completely in September. That season adds a context to his ugly 2020 that makes you wonder about the Red Sox’s motivations for cutting bait on such a talented player with two years of team control remaining.
As for Cordero, he’s a centerfielder with monstrous power and blazing speed, but he was struggling to translate his raw tools into in-game skills even before he started battling injuries. Cordero hasn’t played more than 50 games in a season since 2017 and was only healthy enough to get into 25 total over the last two years. That has cost him valuable development time, such that he may still look like an unrefined rookie out there. Not that we’d know given how rarely he’s been on the field. Still, the prospect of a healthy Franchy remains extremely tantalizing, and he has one more year of team control remaining than Benintendi does, making him Red Sox property through 2023.
Think of Winckowski and the three players to be named as Franchy insurance. What the Red Sox want out of this deal, beyond saving on Benintendi’s arbitration prices, is for Cordero to stay healthy and play up to his potential, or even a fraction of it. What the Royals got, at least based on track record, is much more of a sure thing, a player who had been on a star track that they hope to get back on that train. The Mets dipped their toe in and got a talented outfielder who may or may not be a viable major-leaguer. Cordero, Lee, and Benintendi will all be very interesting to watch this season and beyond.
Red Sox sign UT Marwin González ($3M/1yr)
González, who will turn 32 in March, is a switch-hitter with a league-average bat and no discernable platoon split who can play anywhere but centerfield and catcher. That’s an awfully useful player to have on your team, as the Red Sox know well from their experience with Brock Holt, who only hit lefty. González and Kiké Hernández, who only hits righty but can play centerfield, give the Sox two super-utility men, each of whom should play regularly, even if they don’t have a regular position.
Tigers sign OF Nomar Mazara ($1.75M/1yr)
Mazara was once one of the game’s top prospects, a supposedly can’t-miss bat who peaked at number-five on Baseball Prospectus’s top-101 prospects list prior to the 2016 season. Five years later, he’s a career .258/.318/.426 (92 OPS+) hitter who has yet to top 20 home runs in a season; not brutal, but not good. Mazara won’t turn 26 until April, so he’s not a complete bust just yet. The idea of a rebuilding team trying to help a guy like this find his lost potential is very intriguing. It’s a stretch to make this comparison, I realize, but J.D. Martinez was 26 when he joined the Tigers in 2014 and suddenly emerged as one of the best hitters in the game. Martinez did that largely with the help of outside coaches, and the Tigers were still winning divisions back then, but the parallel is intriguing.
That said, the Tigers shouldn’t let Mazara’s last-ditch attempt to break out before his free agency in the fall step on opportunities for their other young outfielders, particularly given that Mazara is a brutal fielder. Miguel Cabrera has designated hitter locked down for [checks contract] three more years (oof), and the Tigers already signed veteran Robbie Grossman, another DH-type, for one outfield corner. It’s getting crowded in Comerica for guys like Daz Cameron, and having Grossman and Mazara in the corners won’t help young pitchers like Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. If Mazara doesn’t make a meaningful improvement in the first half, the Tigers should cut him loose.
Blue Jays sign RHP David Phelps ($1.75M/1yr)
Since returning from his March 2018 Tommy John surgery, Phelps has thrown 55 innings and allowed 12 home runs. To get a better sense of how many that is, multiply both figures by four: you get 220 innings, a typical ace’s workload, and a whopping 48 home runs. Per Statcast, hitters barreled up 14.6 percent of the pitches Phelps threw last year; the league-average is 6.4 percent. That Phelps still managed to be a league-average pitcher over those 55 innings is a testament to the quality of his stuff, which yielded 65 strikeouts in those 55 innings, but his command is clearly a problem. Here’s hoping the Jays have a solution.
Cubs sign CF Jake Marisnick ($1.5M + $4M mutual option)
Well, that’s nifty. On Tuesday, the Mets signed Albert Almora Jr., whom the Cubs non-tendered in December, so this amounts to a challenge trade of right-handed backup centerfielders. Marisnick will be 30 at the end of March and is into his free-agent years. Almora will be 27 two weeks later and has another year of team control beyond the one-year, $1.25 million contract the Mets just gave him. Both are speed-and-defense players with poor career hitting lines. Almora has hit .271/.309/.398 (84 OPS+) in 1,316 career plate appearances. Marisnick has hit .229/.281/.385 (81 OPS+) in 1,884 career PA.
Almora makes more contact than Marisnick, but Marisnick, who is the larger man at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, has more power and is more of a stolen-base threat with 73 steals in exactly 100 career attempts. However, Almora has the better career line against left-handed pitching, hitting a downright respectable .280/.332/.402 against southpaws. The most important difference may be that Almora’s hitting has been trending downward, while Marisnick has bettered his career line in each of the last four seasons, posting a 96 OPS+ over that stretch. Given a choice, I’d probably rather have Marisnick, but this adds a nice little subplot to the season for Mets and Cubs fans.
Mariners sign RHP Ken Giles (2yrs)
Giles can be one of the game’s most dominant closers, but he had Tommy John surgery in September and won’t pitch for Seattle until 2022, which is why this is a two-year deal. So much for Giles’ Saberhagen-like odd-year magic. Salary information was not public at the time of publication.
Cardinals acquire RHP Johan Quezada from Phillies for cash
Quezada is 6-foot-9 and throws in the upper 90s, so that’s fun. The Phillies claimed the 26-year-old Dominican righty off waivers from the Marlins in October and have now cashed in him by selling him to the Cardinals. Why so little interest in a rocket-balling giant with a put-away slider? Control problems, of course.
Reds claim UT Max Schrock off waivers from the Cubs
Not to be confused with Max Schreck, the enigmatic German silent-film star who played Count Orlok in F.W. Murnau’s 1922 classic Nosferatu, and was fictionalized by Wilem Dafoe in 2000s Shadow of the Vampire, Max Schrock is a short, muscular, well-traveled, 26-year-old, left-handed-hitting infielder now joining his fifth organization and third of this offseason (the Cubs claimed him off waivers from the Cardinals in October). Schrock can play anywhere in the infield (though he’s stretched at shortstop), a bit of outfield, and even pitched a 1-2-3 inning for the Cardinals last year. A career .300/.354/.406 hitter in the minors, the 5-foot-9 Schrock doesn’t have much power and doesn’t walk much, but he makes a ton of contact, can steal a bag, and seems like a generally useful guy to have around. Plus, you don’t have to worry that he might actually be a vampire.
Twins claim OF Kyle Garlick off waivers from the Braves
See, Schrock couldn’t be a vampire, because he doesn’t mind being this close to Kyle Garlick. I’d love to make a “this guy stinks” joke, but Garlick hit .288/.345/.536 in the minors and put up comparable numbers in his first major-league opportunity with the Dodgers in 2019. He’s 29, right-handed, and changing teams via waivers for the second time this offseason (the Braves claimed him from the Phillies exactly three weeks ago), so obviously there’s not much here, but there’s something.
Blue Jays claim RHP Joel Payamps off waivers from Red Sox
Longtime Diamondbacks farmhand Payamps is yet another player on the waiver train this winter, as the Sox claimed him from Arizona before the Jays claimed him from the Sox. A minor league starter, Payamps, who will be 27 in April, doesn’t seem likely to crack a big-league rotation at this point, so he’ll battle for a chance to make the Toronto bullpen in camp as yet another mid-90s sinker/slider guy.
Feedback
I want to hear from you. Got a question, a comment, a request? Reply to this issue. Want to participate in my reader survey (favorite team, place of residence, birth year)? Reply to this issue. Want to interview me on your podcast, send me your book, bake me some cookies? Reply to this issue. I will respond, and if I find your question particularly interesting, I’ll feature it in a future “Inbox.”
You can also write me at cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com, or @ me on twitter @CliffCorcoran
Closing Credits
I try not to double-up my headline references and my Closing Credits songs, but now that I have finally given out some A’s, I thought I’d bookend this week’s Offseason Report Cards with the song that inspired the title of Monday’s issue: Johnny Cash’s “Straight A’s in Love.”
Cash needs no introduction, neither does Sun Records, the independent Memphis recording studio and record label run by Sam Phillips that was pivotal in the early- to mid-50s evolution of rock n’ roll. Cash recorded “Straight A’s in Love” at Sun Studios on December 13, 1956, but it sat unreleased until after Cash left Sun for Columbia records in 1958. The song finally reached the public on New Year’s Eve 1959 as, fittingly, the A-side of a 45 backed with Cash’s version of “I Love You Because.”
“Straight A’s in Love” is credited to Cash and the Tennessee Two—lead guitarist Luther Perkins and bassist Marshall Grant—but there’s some piano tinkling on here and drums (just snare and kick) that are mostly audible only on the accents. Still, the basic sound is classic Sun-era Johnny Cash: an even, echo-drenched, single-note electric guitar (Perkins’ Fender Esquire, to be exact, a predecessor of the Telecaster), rising and falling and chugging away like a train. That piano and the greasy-kids-stuff lyrics put this on the more fun-loving side of Cash’s discography. It’s a complete trifle, but that sound, Cash’s voice, and some delightful turns of phrase (“It ain’t because I’m square or thick,” “I began to be a snook at books,” “Though I did my best, I failed semester test,” “Now the teacher would say to learn your algebrae”) have made this a personal favorite for a long time.
The Cycle will return next week with a look forward to Spring Training as pitchers and catchers (and others) begin to report. In the meantime, please help spread the word about this newsletter, and have a great weekend!