The Cycle, Issue 7: Straight A’s In Glove
Offseason Report Cards for the Central Divisions, wrestling with the Bauer signing, the Braves keep Ozuna, an intradivision trade in the AL West, and more
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
Spring Training starts next week, so The Cycle is spending this week issuing the 30 teams their Offseason Report Cards. We start today by grading the Hot Stove performances of the 10 Central-Division teams.
Also:
Transaction Reactions: Getting into my feelings about the Trevor Bauer signing, Ozuna returns to Atlanta, the A’s and Rangers make a trade, plus Schoop, Folty, and more
Reader Survey: represent your team(s)!
Closing Credits
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Offseason Report Cards: Central Casting
Spring Training is almost upon us. The official Spring Training reporting dates for pitchers and catchers are next week, and many players are already in camp doing early workouts. Meanwhile, nearly all of the top-tier free agents are off the board. From my list of the top-10 unsigned free agents in the first issue of The Cycle two weeks ago, only Justin Turner and tenth-ranked Jackie Bradley Jr. remain unsigned. There are plenty of other mid- and lower-tier free agents still available (you’ll see many of them listed below, as I’ll explain in a moment), but, baring a surprise eleventh-hour trade, the moves that are going to alter the quality of any single team’s offseason have already been made.
Thus, it is time to find out how everyone did. A strong offseason doesn’t always translate into a great regular season, and inaction isn’t always a death knell for a team’s playoff hopes. Yet, for many fans, the Hot Stove is its own season with its own winners and losers. Now that it is drawing to a close, it’s time to figure out who’s who among the 30 teams.
As I did with my uniform rankings last week, I’m going to take 10 teams a day, but rather than arranging them according to grade, I’m going to take them by division so that we can see how they stack up against their direct competition. We’ll do one region (Central, West, and East) per issue. I start today with the American and National League Centrals.
To provide context for the grades, and maintain the theme of The Cycle, I’ve assigned each team a “season” representing where they are in the lifecycle of a contending team. Summer teams are full-blown contenders. Winter teams are deep in a rebuild. Spring and Fall are the in-between stages, and should be self-explanatory given those other definitions, though not every Spring team will blossom into Summer, and not every Fall team is headed for a cold Winter. Generally speaking, I hold Spring, Summer, and Fall teams to the same standard. Only Winter teams are graded on a curve. After all, an ice-cold team can only thaw so much on the Hot Stove. Also included, for context, is my rough estimation of what each team’s Biggest Needs were heading into this offseason.
Following the Season and Biggest Needs, I’ve listed all of the players each team has Added to their 40-man roster this offseason, Renewed (those are free agents they’ve re-signed), and Subtracted. The last category only includes players who appeared in the majors with the team in question in 2020 (or opted out or spent the year on the major-league disabled list) and either reached free agency or were otherwise acquired by another team after the end of the 2020 regular season. For each of those players, I’ve indicated their current team with a three-letter abbreviation in parentheses. Unsigned free agents are indicated with “(FA)”. Teams are presented in order of the final 2020 standings.
With that, Mr. Falvey and Mr. Levine, may I see you in my office . . .
American League Central
Minnesota Twins
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: Keep or replace Nelson Cruz’s bat
Added: SS Andrelton Simmons, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Alex Colomé, RHP Shaun Anderson, RHP Ian Gibaut, RHP Hansel Robles, RHP Ian Hamilton, LHP Brandon Waddell
Renewed: DH Nelson Cruz
Subtracted: LF Eddie Rosario (CLE), OF LaMonte Wade Jr. (SFG), C Alex Avila (WDC), RHP Trevor May (NYM); RHP Jake Odorizzi (FA), LHP Rich Hill (FA), RHP Tyler Clippard (FA), RHP Sergio Romo (FA), UT Marwin González (FA), UT Ehire Adrianza (FA)
Simmons, Happ, and Colomé aren’t the most exciting trio. Still, a team that has played .617 ball over the last two seasons and is likely to insert two top prospects into the lineup this year in outfielder Alex Kirilloff and catcher Ryan Jeffers, only needs to tidy up around the margins. The Twins have done just that, adding an innings-eating starter, a back-end reliever, and an up-the-middle-regular. Most importantly, the kept Cruz in place and didn’t even have to give the 40-year-old bombardier a second year on his contract.
Simmons pushes Jorge Polanco to second base and frees up Luis Arraez to play the Marwin González role, caddying Kirilloff in left field and filling in for inevitable injuries among the veteran infielders, Simmons included. Happ slots in at the back of the rotation, replacing Hill and Odorizzi, who combined for 12 starts last year, the workload of a single starter over a 60-game season. Colomé helps fill out a bullpen that lost May to the Mets but might yet re-sign Clippard. Overall, this was solid but unspectacular work. Very Twins.
Grade: B+
Chicago White Sox
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: a bat for designated hitter, pitching depth
Added: RHP Lance Lynn, RHP Liam Hendriks, RF Adam Eaton, MGR Tony La Russa
Renewed: LHP Carlos Rodón
Subtracted: C James McCann (NYM), IF Yolmer Sánchez (BAL), 3B Cheslor Cuthbert (CIN), OF Nicky Delmonico (CIN), RHP Dane Dunning (TEX), RHP Alex Colomé (MIN), LHP Ross Detwiler (MIA); OFNomar Mazara (FA), CF Jarrod Dyson (FA), DH Edwin Encarnación (FA), IF Ryan Goins (FA), LHP Gio González (FA), RHP Steve Cishek (FA), MGR Rick Renteria (FA)
The White Sox arrived for real last year, then went out and spent real money to get the best closer on the market in Hendricks and traded for a pitcher who has finished in the top six in the Cy Young voting in each of the last two years in Lynn. That’s strong work, though they did have to give up promising young rotation piece Dane Dunning to get Lynn’s age-34 walk year.
They also largely neglected the lineup. Eaton won it all with Washington two years ago, but he’s a bad fielder and compiled fewer wins above replacement in his four years in Washington combined than he did in any one of the three years of his initial tenure with the White Sox. That makes me worry that the same nostalgia-clouded decision making that put Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame could undermine the potential of this team. Eaton is one thing. Pulling 76-year-old Tony La Russa out of a nine-year retirement to manage an exciting young team energized by its demonstrative Latin and Black players is a whole other thing. Sticking with that bad decision after news broke that La Russa had been arrested for drunk driving last February prompts even more questions about the team’s leadership.
Grade: B-
Cleveland Baseball Club
Season: Fall
Biggest Needs: To suck it up and sign Francisco Lindor to an extension; outfielders who can hit
Added: OF Eddie Rosario, SS Andrés Giménez, SS Amed Rosario, RHP Jordan Humphreys, RHP Trevor Stephan
Renewed: 2B Cesar Hernandez
Subtracted: SS Francisco Lindor (NYM), 1B Carlos Santana (KCR), CF Delino DeShields (TEX), OF Domingo Santana (NPB), C Sandy León (MIA), RHP Carlos Carrasco (NYM), RHP Brad Hand (WDC), RHP Adam Cimber (MIA), RHP Dominic Leon (SFG); OF Tyler Naquin (FA), LHP Oliver Pérez (FA)
Just typing Francisco Lindor’s name in that “Subtracted” section hurt, and I’m not even a Cleveland fan. The organization tore the soul out of this team by trading Lindor, and Cookie Carrasco, for that matter. Andrés Giménez is a compelling player who will slot right in at shortstop, and Amed Rosario could compete for playing time in centerfield, if Cleveland decides to go that way with him, but Lindor is one of the game’s great players and personalities. He is irreplaceable.
It’s startling to realize that Cleveland has finished first or second in the AL Central in each of the last five seasons, went to the playoffs in four of those five years, and compiled a .587 winning percentage over those seasons, because they seem to punt every offseason. They’ve been allowing the hole in the outfield to fester and have been trading away stars and other useful players like the team is going out of business (Yan Gomes, Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, now Lindor and Carrasco). At some point the winning is going to stop. My guess it that happens this year, but even if it does, Terry Francona should waltz into the Hall of Fame when his turn comes. Just saying.
Grade: D+
Kansas City Royals
Season: Winter
Biggest Needs: A miracle
Added: 1B Carlos Santana, CF Michael A. Taylor, LHP Mike Minor
Renewed: RHP Greg Holland
Subtracted: LF Alex Gordon (retired), 3B Matt Reynolds (CWS), RHP Glenn Sparkman (MIN), RHP Kevin McCarthy (BOS);3B Maikel Franco (FA), C Oscar Hernández (FA), LHP Mike Montgomery (FA), RHP Ian Kennedy (FA), RHP Matt Harvey (FA), RHP Randy Rosario (FA)
The Royals are a bad team without an obvious way forward. They have some talent on the way in the system, but nothing likely to coalesce the way the eventual 2015 World Series winners did. Their lineup isn’t that young, and the youth they have in the rotation doesn’t have front-end potential. So why not grab a few inexpensive veterans and see if you can luck into an expanded playoff field? Kansas City kinda sorta did that this winter with Santana and Minor, retaining Holland, and, to a lesser degree, Taylor. I’m not terribly optimistic about any of those guys, but I’d rather see a team like this mix in some familiar faces where they won’t be blocking any of the more interesting kids, and the Royals did that.
Grade: C
Detroit Tigers
Season: Winter
Biggest Needs: Their prospects to play up to their potential; patience; a catcher
Added: C Wilson Ramos,OF Robbie Grossman, CF Akil Baddoo, RHP José Ureña, MGR A.J. Hinch
Renewed: 2B Jonathan Schoop
Subtracted: C Austin Romine (CHC), IF Sergio Alcántara (CHC), RHPIván Nova (PHI), LHP Nick Ramírez (SDP), RHP Anthony Castro (TOR); RHP Jordan Zimmermann (FA),1B C.J. Cron (FA), IF Dawel Lugo (FA), UT Brandon Dixon (FA), OF Jorge Bonifacio (FA)
Nothing the Tigers do will mean anything if prospects like righty Casey Mize, the top overall pick in the 2018 draft, come up to the majors and flatline. Mize was lousy in his debut last year, as were lefty Tarik Skubal, third baseman Isaac Paredes, and right fielder Daz Cameron. The rebuild will only succeed if the kids do.
Still, the Tigers needed a catcher, and Ramos is a quality veteran who could help bring the young pitchers along while contributing with the bat. Schoop is a nice piece for a second-division team that the Tigers retained at a discount. Grossman and Ureña are placeholders, the latter a necessary addition given how bad the pitching was last year, but, again, the Tigers would rather Mize, Skubal, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer pull it together.
As for Hinch, his attempts to stop the Astros’ sign stealing were pathetic and a failure of leadership, but I don’t think he needs to wear a scarlet letter for the whole thing, so I don’t begrudge him this second chance, particularly given how a job like this can paint a first-time manager as a loser. With the Astros, Hinch inherited a 92-loss team and led it to a 16-game improvement in his first year, but the 2015 Astros had young players who delivered—Carlos Correa, George Springer, José Altuve, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., just to name a few. Hinch is facing a much greater challenge in Detroit.
Grade: C+
National League Central
Chicago Cubs
Season: Fall
Biggest Needs: Rotation reinforcements and long-term certainty
Added: LF Joc Pederson, OF Phillip Ervin, C Austin Romine, IF Sergio Alcántara, RHP Zach Davies, RHP Trevor Williams, RHP Kohl Stewart, RHP Jonathan Holder, RHP Robert Stock, RHP Gray Fenter
Renewed: LHP Andrew Chafin
Subtracted: RHP Yu Darvish (SDP), LHP Jon Lester (WDC), RHP José Quintana (LAA), RHP Tyler Chatwood (TOR), LF Kyle Schwarber (WDC), CF Albert Almora Jr. (NYM), OF/1B José Martínez (NYM), C Víctor Caratini (SDP), C Josh Phegley (retired); 2B Jason Kipnis (FA), OF Cameron Maybin (FA), CF Billy Hamilton (FA), RHP Jeremy Jeffress (FA), RHP Ryan Tepera (FA), RHP Colin Rea (FA)
With Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Báez all due to become free agents after the 2021 season, the Cubs had a choice this winter: they could try to trade one or more of those stars now to cash them in ahead of their free agencies, or they could load up for one more run at a championship with those players in place and attempt to extend one or more of them in the process. Thus far, the Cubs have done neither.
Their big move this offseason was to trade 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish and catcher Víctor Caratini to the Padres for a trio of teenaged minor leaguers and righty Zach Davies, who will also be a free agent in the fall. That’s a downgrade in a rotation that already needed reinforcements with Jon Lester, José Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood leaving as free agents. The Cubs’ solution to that problem thus far has been righties Trevor Williams and Kohl Stewart, two pitchers who would not be viable in a contending rotation.
Elsewhere, replacing Caratini with Romine is a parallel move, at best. Non-tendering Kyle Schwarber and replacing him with Joc Pederson could be a mild upgrade, but is more likely another parallel move.
That all seems to signal a tear-down on the horizon, but if a rebuild is in the offing, why not go all the way and cash in those stars? This middle ground strikes me as cowardly, with the most likely result being that the Cubs miss the playoffs this year and have to settle for draft-pick compensation for their stars.
Grade: D
Cincinnati Reds
Season: Spring
Biggest Needs: Shortstop, pitching reinforcements
Added: LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Noé Ramirez, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Edgar Garcia, LHP Cionel Pérez, RHP Hector Perez, RHP Art Warren, RHP Riley O’Brien, CF Scott Heineman, C Deivy Grullón, SS Kyle Holder
Renewed: UT Kyle Farmer
Subtracted: RHP Trevor Bauer (LAD), RHP Anthony DeSclafani (SFG),RHP Raisel Iglesias (LAA),RHP Archie Bradley (PHI), RHP Robert Stephenson (COL), SS Freddy Galvis (BAL), C Curt Casali (SFG), OF Phillip Ervin (CHC); CF Brian Goodwin (FA), OF Travis Jankowski (FA), 1B Matt Davidson (FA), IF Christian Colón (FA), RHP Tyler Thornburg (FA)
The Reds took advantage of the expanded playoffs and Trevor Bauer’s walk-year to sneak into the postseason last year for the first time since 2013. They failed to score a run in the best-of-three Wild Card Series, but their mere presence there was reason to hope that the team would make an effort for 2021.
That has not happened. The Reds need a shortstop. The only one they have added is 27-year-old Kyle Holder, who has never played above Double-A. They needed to find a way to replace Bauer’s dominance at the top of the rotation, but they haven’t added any viable starting pitchers, just a collection of failed minor league starters likely headed to the bullpen. They have made some effort to stock up in the ‘pen, but that effort included trading incumbent closer Raisel Iglesias for 31-year-old Noé Ramirez, a soft-tosser whose strikeout rate dropped nearly by half last year (and whose presence correctly predicts that the Reds will get “no A” on this report card). Cincinnati has signed a grand total of two free agents, at any position, to major-league contracts this winter. The more expensive of the two was 34-year-old lefty Sean Doolittle, who signed for one-year and $1.5 million. Most of the Reds moves this offseason have been on the level of a waiver-claim or minor trade. There has been no effort.
Grade: F
St. Louis Cardinals
Season: Summer
Biggest Needs: upgrades at catcher and in the outfield
Added: 3B Nolan Arenado
Renewed: RHP Adam Wainwright
Subtracted: 2B Kolten Wong (MIL), OF Dexter Fowler (LAA), IF Max Schrock (CHC), LHP Austin Gomber (COL), RHP Nabil Crismatt (SDP); UT Brad Miller (FA), 1B/OF Rangel Ravelo (FA), LHP Ricardo Sánchez (FA), LHP Rob Kaminsky (FA), RHP Ryan Meisinger (FA), C Matt Wieters (FA), C Yadier Molina (FA)
Yes, Nolan Arenado is the only player the Cardinals have added to their 40-man roster this winter, but if you’re only going to add one player, it helps if that guy is a top-five player in the league. The National League Central, as a whole, didn’t hit much last year. The bottom six teams in the NL in runs scored per game last year were the five NL Central teams and the Marlins (who outscored the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, and Pirates, in that order). Punting the top two finishers in last year’s Cy Young voting, Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish, from the division should lift all bats, but it helps if teams actually try to improve their lineup. The Cardinals are the only NL Central team to do that thus far this offseason, and they did it in a big way with Arenado.
St. Louis got Arenado from the Rockies in a salary dump without having to give up much (Gomber and some marginal minor leaguers, details in last Wednesday’s Cycle), and Colorado will be paying Nolan’s salary this year. He’ll effectively replace Kolten Wong by pushing Tommy Edman to second base, while the team hopes that top prospect Dylan Carlson can improve the quality of the outfield, rendering aging fellow switch-hitter Fowler (dumped on the Angels for a player to be named later) obsolete.
Retaining Wainwright restores depth to a rotation that lost Dakota Hudson to Tommy John surgery but hopes to have Miles Mikolas back and fully healthy after he missed all of last year with a flexor tendon injury. Similarly, Jordan Hicks is due to return from Tommy John surgery to reclaim the closer’s job. That just leaves the catching position, where the team is still expected to re-sign Yadier Molina for his age-38 season. Sure, the Cardinals could have done more, but the one big move they made was a whopper.
Grade: B
Milwaukee Brewers
Season: Fall
Biggest Needs: A third baseman and other bats
Added: 2B Kolten Wong, UT Daniel Robertson, UT Tim Lopes, C Luke Maile
Subtracted: LHP Alex Claudio (LAA), RHP Corey Knebel (LAD); IF Jedd Gyorko (FA), IF Ryon Healy (FA), OF Ryan Braun (FA), OF Ben Gamel (FA), LHP Brett Anderson (FA)
Signing Kolten Wong is a nice move. It pushes stone-gloved Keston Hiura to first base, upgrading the defense significantly for a team that is going to rely very heavily on its pitching and defense (see also: the return of Lorenzo Cain to centerfield after he opted out of 2020). There’s also the added juice of keeping him in the division, where he can confront his former team regularly. Still, Wong is a glove-first player on a team that outscored only the Reds, Rangers, and Pirates last year, and there’s not much else going on here. In the context of this increasingly pathetic division, making any kind of positive move stands out, but it’s not clear that the Brewers are any better than they were in October, when they were sitting home watching the expanded postseason on television.
All of that said, the Brewers are reportedly still pursuing Justin Turner, who would be a great fit for them at third base. Turner still seems most likely to return to the Dodgers, but if the Brewers get him, this grade could change.
Grade: C
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season: Winter
Biggest Needs: Near-ready prospects
Added: C Michael Perez, RHP Wil Crowe, RHP Miguel Yajure, RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Sean Poppen, RHP David Bednar, RHP José Soriano, RHP Luis Oviedo
Subtracted: 1B Josh Bell (WDC), OF Jason Martin (TEX), RHP Joe Musgrove (SDP), RHP Chris Archer (TBR), RHP Jameson Taillon (NYY, RHP Trevor Williams (CHC), LHP Derek Holland (DET), LHP Nik Turley (OAK); RHP Keone Kela (FA), UT JT Riddle (FA)
Its impressive that a team that played .317 baseball last year (that’s a 110-loss pace over a full, 162-game season) had any parts left to sell off, but the Pirates cut deep, trading 27-year-olds Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove two years before their free agency, and cutting bait on former second-overall pick Jameson Taillon. Those three trades yielded 11 players, though it’s not clear that any of them are worth getting too excited about. There might be a few future major leaguers in that bunch (not counting the cups of coffee already tasted by righties Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure, and David Bednar, who came from the Nats for Bell, the Yankees for Taillon, and the Padres for Musgrove, respectively), but there are no blue-chippers, no likely stars. That’s because the Pirates sold low on Bell, who had a lousy 2020, and Taillon, who has yet to prove his career will survive his second Tommy John surgery. I suppose something is better than nothing, but being able to root for comebacks from Bell and Taillon and, subsequently, better returns for them seems like it would have been better than this something.
Grade: C-
Transaction Reactions
Dodgers sign RHP Trevor Bauer ($102M/3yrs with opt-outs)
There are three things going on here, each complicated and unpleasant in its own way. In short, they are the team, the contract, and the person. I’ll take them in order.
The Dodgers are the one team in baseball that didn’t need starting pitching. Only Cleveland had a lower starter’s ERA than the Dodgers last year. L.A. just won the World Series with a rotation that included a rejuvenated Clayton Kershaw, an ace-in-the-making in Walker Buehler, another youngster with ace-quality stuff in Dustin May, two other young pitchers who were good to great during the regular and postseasons in Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urías, and they were already adding David Price, who opted out of the 2020 season after arriving in the Mookie Betts trade. That’s six viable starters, four of them entering their age-27 season or younger. I could understand the Dodgers making a move to upgrade on the departed Joc Pederson or Enrique Hernández, or adding to a bullpen that, while great last year, is prone to fluctuations just by the nature of being a bullpen. Why sign Trevor Bauer, who, as we’ll see in a moment, is both expensive and a source of potential headaches and embarrassment, to be the seventh quality starting pitcher on your roster? I don’t get it.
Okay, I kind of get it. This is the richest team in baseball throwing its weight around, just like they did a year ago when they followed a 106-win season by trading for Betts and signing him to the second-richest contract in major-league history. If the market for the top starting pitcher on the market (which, for all of my cynicism about Bauer having yet to put up consecutive ace-quality seasons, he absolutely was) was limited to just a few teams and seemed to be developing toward a short, $100 million contract, why shouldn’t the team that gave Betts $365 million get involved. I don’t mind that. Competition is good, and this is a $10 billion industry, the players should get paid. As for the fact that Bauer’s 2021 salary is reportedly more than the entire payrolls of three different teams. Well, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, that’s not true, but even if it were, I say shame on those teams, not on Bauer or the Dodgers (at least not for that).
Still, I worry about what this signing will do to the Dodgers’ clubhouse. Yes, because of Bauer’s personality, but also because of the pitchers he is displacing. May, Gonsolin, and Urías all earned spots in this year’s Dodgers rotation with their performances last year. They were all key parts of the team’s first championship in 32 years, and they all have the talent to have long careers as major-league starters. With Kershaw, Buehler, and Bauer topping the rotation, however, there is only room for two of them, and that’s without factoring in Price’s return.
Then again, those three young arms may need to build up innings after the shortened 2020 season, and Bauer won’t necessarily be around to block them in 2022. Which brings us to the contract. According to the rumor mill, Bauer wasn’t looking for a record contract this winter, just a record salary, and he will get that in 2021 and potentially again in 2022. This three-year, $102 million deal will pay Bauer a major-league record $40 million for the coming season, then give him an opportunity to opt out of the contract. If he remains, he’ll earn a new record $45 million in 2022. He’ll then have another chance to opt out or remain for a mere $17 million in 2023. Given that structure, this is closer to a two-year $85 million contract, as Bauer would have to fall off significantly to remain for that third year.
Some have suggested that the third year was designed less as a player option than to bring down the competitive-balance-tax hit from those massive 2021 and ’22 salaries. Indeed, the average annual value of the contract, which is what is used for competitive-balance tax calculations, is “just” $34 million. That potentially opens up a can of worms with regard to competitive-balance-tax manipulation. Why not, for example, sign Bauer to seven-year deal for $90 million, pay him the same $85 million for the first two seasons, give him the same opt-out after every year, but make the final five years worth just $1 million each. That would bring the average annual value all the way down below $13 million without drastically altering the basic structure of the deal ($85 million for two years plus something lower Bauer will, in all likelihood, opt out of). I don’t know if there are any rules in place to curb those kind of shenanigans, but leave it to Bauer to point the way to them. If the owners are paying attention, they’ll want to put protections against them in the new collective bargaining agreement in the fall.
As for the person, I said my piece on Bauer when I ranked him a mere seventh among the unsigned free agents two weeks ago. That ranking was due in part to his pitching. He was great for the first time in 2018, his age-27 season, below average in 2019, then great again in 2020 but over only 73 innings, and likely with the help of a technically contraband sticky substance that helped him add spin to his pitches (all of which is documented and to which Bauer has more or less confessed). It was also due to his personality, which can turn abusive when challenged, particularly on social media. Here’s what I wrote on that issue:
[Bauer] is going to do or say something problematic, abusive, or possibly even illegal again sooner or later, and it’s going to cause a giant headache for whichever team signs him. His history of such behavior is already extensive enough that signing him would be an affront to a significant portion of any team’s fanbase. I don’t dispute his right to earn a living plying his talents, but I do think teams should think twice, then think again if they really want to spend the length of his contract apologizing for and attempting to spin his behavior.
Between that, his price tag, and their already overflowing rotation, it’s inexplicable to me that the Dodgers are the team that signed Bauer, and that Bauer got what he wanted, a short contract with multiple opt-outs and record-breaking salaries. I can’t help but be disappointed, both in the Dodgers and in the fact that Bauer isn’t being better deployed to make a team with a lesser rotation better, and thus to make the league as a whole more interesting in the coming season. Truth be told, I would have been disappointed in whichever team signed Bauer, but I would have been more understanding if that team was desperate for an ace and was putting the needs of the team and (most) fans above the headaches that would follow. For the Dodgers, though, I’m just plain disappointed.
Incidentally, I thought I might start this week’s Offseason Grades with whatever division landed Bauer, but when he landed in L.A., it was almost immediately obvious to me that the Dodgers are not done. The obvious move is for them to re-sign Justin Turner (that one’s been obvious for a while, though I do hope the Brewers give them some competition there), but with Bauer overcrowding the rotation, I wonder if there’s any chance of L.A. dealing one of those displaced young arms, or Price. It seems crazy to me to deal one of the youngsters, but the Dodgers are playing with house money, almost literally, and their top prospect is yet another young starter, Josiah Gray, who could crack the majors as early as this year.
Stay tuned . . .
Braves re-sign OF Marcell Ozuna ($65M/4yrs + club option)
In his eight years in the majors, Ozuna has been inconsistent at the plate and declining in the field, but he clicked with the Braves last year, both on the field and in the dugout. According to Atlanta hitting coach, Kevin Seitzer, Ozuna was “all out of whack” when he first joined the Braves last spring. Seitzer’s solution was to encourage Ozuna be himself. I love Seitzer’s message to Ozuna in this tweet from The Athletic’s Dave O’Brein from Friday:
Ozuna let it rip last year to the tune of a .338/.431/.636 batting line, good for a 175 OPS+ and the league leads in home runs (18), total bases (145), and RBI (56). He cooled off a bit in the playoffs (he was 1-for-9 with five strikeouts in that Reds series, though the one hit was a home run), but still slugged .490 and has shown some postseason flair in his first opportunities the last two years, hitting .284/.315/.534 with five home runs in 21 games. Ozuna won’t replicate that abbreviated-regular-season line in his age-30 to -33 seasons, but he should be a dangerous bat in the middle of a stacked Braves’ lineup and can handle left field until the universal designated hitter becomes permanent.
A’s acquire SS Elvis Andrus, minor league C Aramis Garcia, and cash from the Rangers for DH Khris Davis, C Jonah Heim, and minor league RHP Dane Acker
When this winter’s game of musical shortstops came to a close, the A’s were the team left standing. This trade is their solution to that problem. It would have been much more interesting three years ago. In 2017, Andrus had a five-win season, but he has hit just .260/.306/.378 (76 OPS+) the last three years, and his glove has gone in the direction of his bat. Andrus is still only 32, but he’s a 12-year veteran whose mileage is showing. Indeed, the Rangers decided in November to make 26-year-old Isiah Kiner-Falefa their shortstop for the coming season, rendering Andrus superfluous and, therefore, expensive.
Similarly, Davis was one of the game’s top sluggers from 2016 to 2018, averaging 44 homers per season and slugging .534. Over the last two, however, he has hit just .217/.294/.378 with 25 homers in 163 games. Davis’s power is his only selling point. He’s a pure designated-hitter who doesn’t hit for average (he famously hit exactly .247 four years in a row, and that remains his career high for a qualified season), doesn’t walk much (career .316 on-base percentage), and strikes out a ton. In 2020, Davis hit just two home runs in 99 plate appearances. In Texas, the 33-year-old Davis could wind up being nothing more than a right-handed platoon partner for 26-year-old lefty Willie Calhoun.
Given that the A’s are sending $13.5 million to the A’s to help cover Andrus’s salary, one might think this trade is a salary dump, but it isn’t. Both teams may have increased their commitments with this deal. The Rangers owed Andrus $28 million for the next two years. Now they’ve sent $13.5 million to Oakland and will pay Davis $16.75 for this, the final year of his contract, that’s $30.25 million. The A’s, meanwhile, could be on the hook for Andrus’s $15 million option in 2023, which will become a player option if he makes 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 in 2021 and ’22 combined. So, they go from owing Davis $16.75 million to possibly owing Andrus either $14.5 million over the next two years or $29.5 million over the next three. You could call that even, but if that option vests, the A’s will have taken on significant salary without giving Texas any relief.
Likely in exchange for that $13.5 million, the Rangers are getting the better of the undercard. In the swap of third-string catchers, Heim is two years younger and probably a smidge better; the 28-year-old Garcia is a player the Rangers had just claimed off waivers from the Giants in November. The A’s are also including their fourth-round pick from last year’s draft, college righty Dan Acker, who will turn 22 on April 1.
Tigers re-sign 2B Jonathan Schoop ($4.5M/1yr)
As I mentioned above, the Tigers get a bargain here, paying $1.6 million less than they did last year for the perpetually underrated Schoop. Schoop (pronounced Scope, like the mouthwash or the surgical procedure) is a strong fielder who hit .262/.306/.474 (106 OPS+) with 31 home runs in 165 games over the last two seasons. No, he won’t take a walk, but the 29-year-old’s power and glove are for real, and it’s nice to see a rebuilding organization employing some established major-league talent to keep the quality of the major-league team from cratering.
A’s re-sign RHP Mike Fiers ($3.5M/1yr)
For a league-average innings eater, Fiers has had an interesting career. He threw a no-hitter and won a World Series with the Astros, then dropped a dime on their sign-stealing scheme after leaving Houston. He also was the pitcher whose beanball cost Giancarlo Stanton the 2014 National League MVP award, and, one day in late 2019, he took the mound with this on his face. This contract represents a steep drop from the two-year, $14.1 million contract Fiers signed with the A’s two years ago, but as an extreme fly-ball pitcher with weak strikeout rates who will turn 36 in June, he should be happy to have it.
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Rangers sign RHP Mike Foltynewicz ($2M/1yr)
Folty went from ace to replaced with shocking quickness in Atlanta. In 2018, he was an All-Star, finished eighth in the Cy Young voting, and was the Braves’ Game 1 starter in the Division Series against the Dodgers. The next year, he struggled, saw his home-run rate spike, and spent some time in Triple-A, but battled back to dominate the Cardinals in Game 2 of the Division Series (7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs). Then came Game 5, which was effectively over before Foltynewicz could even get the second out (which he never did). Last year, his velocity was down four to five miles per hour on all his pitches, and the Braves cut bait after just one lousy start, outrighting him to the alternate training site. The Rangers will try to help the 29-year-old rediscover his 2018 form. It’s a long shot, but worth the gamble.
Twins claim RHP Ian Hamilton off waivers from the Phillies
Hamilton, a Quad-A right-handed reliever heading into his age-26 season, has been claimed off waivers three times since September. He started with the White Sox, was claimed by the Mariners on September 25, the Phillies on December 7, and the Twins over the weekend. Every winter there’s one player who hops organizations like this. Looks like this is Hamilton’s year.
Cubs claim SS Sergio Alcántara off waivers from the Tigers
Alcántara is the kind of player who has largely gone extinct in major-league baseball: the tiny, switch-hitting middle infielder with zero power. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 151 pounds, the 24-year-old Alcántara has hit 10 home runs in 2,634 professional plate appearances. So what did he do in his first major-league at-bat last September? Yup:
Reader Survey
For new subscribers, or those who haven’t responded yet, I would still like to know your favorite team(s), city and state of residence, and year of birth. Email me at cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com or simply reply to this issue, or any other sent to your inbox, if you are willing to share that information.
In the meantime, I thought I’d share a little of what I’ve found out about you all thus far (without revealing any one’s personal information, of course). The Cycle’s subscribers are a diverse bunch, at least in terms of age and rooting interest. The average Cycle reader was born in 1975, but, as a group, we have subscribers born in every decade from the 1940s to the 2000s. We have readers in at least three different countries, and at least 21 of the U.S. States (that last seems a little low, but then it occurs to me that only 18 states have major-league teams, 19 if you count the Nationals for Virginia). Also, respondents listed 23 of the 30 major-league teams among their favorites. The Yankees top the list, followed by the Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Mets. The missing seven teams: Angels, Astros, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Reds and Rockies.
If you’re a fan of one of those missing teams, think your team (or generation or state or country) is underrepresented, or just want to run up the score for your favorites, please reply to this issue to make your voice heard.
Also, a reminder, I’m always interested in your feedback, questions, and comments. Again, reply to any issue or email cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com. Thanks!
Closing Credits
I was going to go with a school or teacher theme for today’s closing credits song, what with the whole “report card” thing. Then, somewhere in the middle of writing up the pathetic efforts of the NL Central teams, my mind dropped the needle on Stevie Wonder’s “You Haven’t Done Nothin’,” and my decision was made.
The opening track to the second side of Fulfillingness’ First Finale, the penultimate album in Wonder’s unbelievable early-’70s run, “You Haven’t Done Nothin’” is a peak Stevie Wonder funk banger on par with “Superstition” and the rest. It honestly does not get much better than this: the heavy downbeat on the One, Stevie’s fleet-fingered and fiercely funky clavinet, Wonder’s vocals in full flight, Reggie McBride’s descending bass just before the final kiss-off in the chorus, the horn riff, the freakin’ Jackson 5 on the doo-doo-wop background vocals (listen for Stevie calling them out right before they come in).
Wonder wrote the song as a takedown of Richard Nixon, and, though the album came out in July of 1974, the single dropped two days before Nixon’s resignation in early August. I can only imagine the elation Wonder’s fans felt to watch Nixon resign and leave the White House then hear this monster kiss-off funk jam blaring out of the radio.
For our purposes here, the lyrics translate perfectly to the perspective a fan tired of hearing lame excuses from their favorite team about why they didn’t or couldn’t make this or that improvement this winter, particularly this opening salvo:
We are amazed but not amused
By all the things you say that you'll do
Though much concerned but not involved
With decisions that are made by you
But we are sick and tired of hearing your song
Tellin’ how you are gonna change right from wrong,
‘Cause if you really want to hear our views,
You haven't done nothin’
“You Haven’t Done Nothin’” hit number-one in early November. Fulfillingness’ First Finale also hit number one and earned Wonder his second consecutive Album of the Year Grammy (he’d win a third two years later for Songs in the Key of Life). Speaking of which, since I can never get enough of the young Stevie Wonder on stage, even in this kind of canned appearance, I’ve included both the album version and a bonus video of 24-year-old Stevie singing and playing clavinet live to the recorded backing track at the 1975 Grammys. Presenter Andy Williams introduced Wonder over the instrumental opening of the song; the video, the second one below, cuts in right when Stevie’s vocals start.
The Cycle will return on Wednesday with the Western Division Report Cards. In the meantime, let ‘em know about The Cycle!