The Cycle, Issue 12: If You’ve Got the Money, I’ve Got the Time
AL East Spring Training Previews, the Tatis extension, Toronto-less Blue Jays, minor-league realignment, spring injuries, and more
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
When I launched my Spring Training Preview series on Tuesday, I wrote this about these early days of Spring Training:
[T]he players arrive, and they spend several weeks doing calisthenics in shorts. Bullpen sessions and pitchers’ fielding practice are the most compelling baseball action during this period, and the news coming out of camp largely consists of injuries, some of which are just the typical aches and pains of getting back into game shape and are long forgotten by Opening Day, and contract extensions.
Well, the players have arrived. Let’s see how that’s going . . .
That’s this spring’s New Duds champion Nolan Arenado doing baseball activities in shorts. Meanwhile, the Padres signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to the largest pre-arbitration extension in major-league history, and so many players have reported various aches and pains that I’ve created a new section of the newsletter for them. That, dear reader, is baseball’s cycle at work.
Speaking of cycles, in today’s jam-packed issue our Spring Training Previews cycle over to the American League East, where we find this spring’s top Sneak Peak and arguably the top NRI That-Guy.
Also:
Newswire: The Blue Jays’ new new home; Minor League realignment
Transaction Reactions: The Tatis extension and some slightly smaller deals
Aches and Pains: New Spring Training injury section!
Corrections: Bauer’s breakdown and a new spring cap
Feedback
Closing Credits
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Spring Training Preview: AL East
Spring Training is underway, but the exhibition schedule doesn’t start for another week or so. To tide you over until we get closer to the actual games (which commence Sunday, February 28), The Cycle is spending this week and next highlighting some of the more compelling spring storylines for each team in my Spring Training Previews.
Because one of the joys of Spring Training is seeing offseason acquisitions in their new uniforms, each preview will start with the player that team and its fans are likely most excited to see in their “New Duds.” I’ll then highlight the “Big Change” for each team, the thing that has changed most from last year to this; the “Big Battle,” that’s the position battle most likely to be decided by spring performance (even if the idea of evaluating players based on exhibition play is ridiculous and outdated); the “Big Question,” that’s the one unknown that might be answered before the season starts; an “NRI That-Guy,” a familiar major-league veteran who is in camp as a non-roster invitee; and, finally, the top prospect on that team whom we have yet to see in the majors but might get a “Sneak Peak” at this spring.
I started on Tuesday with the American League West, and surveyed the National League Central on Wednesday. Today, we continue with the American League East. As with my Offseason Report Cards, teams are presented in order of their 2020 finish.
Tampa Bay Rays
Location: Charlotte Sports Park, Port Charlotte, FL
New Duds: RHP Luis Patiño
The Rays didn’t make any big splashes in terms of veteran additions this winter, unless you happen to be a Rays fan excited about the prospect of having a greatly diminished Chris Archer back in the rotation. The 21-year-old Patiño is the top prospect received in the Blake Snell trade, and he did appear in a Padres uniform last year, even making three postseason relief appearances, so some Rays fans have surely seen him in the Padres’ brown. All should hope to see him in Rays’ blue very soon.
Big Change: LHP Blake Snell
In the last major-league game anyone has seen, Blake Snell was on a World Series mound playing the part of the Tampa Bay ace, mowing down Dodgers with nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings while allowing just two singles. That second signal prompted Rays manager Kevin Cash to take Snell out of the game after just 73 pitches. No one, except the Dodgers and their fans, wanted to see Snell removed from that game. Now, the Rays have removed him from the team entirely, sending him to San Diego for Patiño, catcher Francisco Mejía, and two others. That removed the Rays’ most reliable starter from their rotation, opening the door for the quantity-over-quality approach they have taken to rebuilding that rotation and, most likely, a whole lot more 73-pitch outings from Rays pitchers in the season to come.
Big Battle: Catcher
Most of this preview focuses on the untamed mess that is the Rays’ rotation, so let’s shift the focus here to a simpler position battle. The Rays have had a lot of success in recent years giving opportunities to prospects who either hadn’t had a full chance or hadn’t stuck with their previous teams. Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Randy Arozarena may be the best examples, but if you expand the definition of prospect a little you can include Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, and others. That the Rays acquired switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejía in the Snell trade tells me that they intend to give him the chance he didn’t fully get in Cleveland or San Diego. However, the Rays re-signed Mike Zunino after acquiring Mejía, and, while Zunino has been a .200/.270/.394 (83 OPS+) hitter in his career, he did guide an outstanding Rays staff to Game 6 of the World Series last year. The Rays could be setting up a mentoring situation, with Zunino, who turn 30 next month, helping Mejía mature as a catcher while the youngster gets every chance to settle in as a hitter. Or maybe they want Mejía to prove he belongs, to take the job from Zunino by the sheer force of his performance. Whatever the plan, if the 25-year-old Mejía doesn’t make it work with the Rays, he may not get many more chances to be a major-league catcher, so, at the very least, there should be some urgency and fight on his part.
Big Question: Will the near-ready pitching prospects get rotation opportunities?
Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough appear to be the only pitchers guaranteed spots in the Rays’ rotation, but the team brought in veterans Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh, and Rich Hill, they still have Trevor Richards, and they just traded for Chris Mazza. That is a lot of bodies for the kids to climb over for chances, but, coming out of 2020, Josh Fleming and Shane McClanahan looked ready to fight for a spot, and new addition Luis Patiño is in a similar position. Fleming and Patiño both started major-league games last year, and McClanahan was on the postseason roster through all four rounds of the playoffs. Will any of them get a chance to win a rotation spot or bulk-innings role in Spring Training?
NRI That-Guy: RHP Stetson Allie
This is one for your aging prospect watchers. The Pirates drafted Allie out of an Ohio high school with the second pick of 2010’s second round and gave him a $2.25 million bonus, which was more than all but 10 of the first-round picks in that year’s draft received. A top-100 prospect heading into his first professional season, Allie had massive control problems, and, in just his second pro season, he converted to third base, ultimately making his way to the outfield. Allie didn’t throw a single pitch from 2013 to 2016, but, in 2017, he was picked up by the Dodgers and they put him back on the mound. He has been a full-time pitcher since 2018, and, well, it hasn’t gone much better. Allie’s a three-true-outcome pitcher: lots of strikeouts but also tons of walks and homers. As a pro, he has a 6.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and 8.5 walks per nine. Still, prospects get chances, and Allie, who will turn 30 in March and has never appeared in the major-leagues, is getting another one this spring as a non-roster pitcher in Rays camp.
Sneak Peak: SS Wander Franco
The unanimous pick as the top prospect in baseball for the second season in a row, Franco won’t turn 20 until March 1, and he topped out at High-A in 2019, but he’s a switch-hitter with a career .336/.405/.523 line in the minors and an above-average glove and arm at shortstop. He was on the taxi squad during last year’s playoffs, so you know the Rays are trying to figure out when to bring him up, and what to do with Willy Adames when they do. And you know Franco isn’t going to entertain any kind of pre-call-up extension that doesn’t look like the contract Fernando Tatis Jr. just got, so it might be a little longer than expected. So, get a good look this spring, because as far as Sneak Peaks go, this is as good as it gets this year.
New York Yankees
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
New Duds: RHP Corey Kluber
Kluber wasn’t the only former Cy Young award winner to change teams this winter, but he is the only two-time Cy Young award winner to change teams. Kluber was one of the best pitchers in baseball from 2014 to 2018 and made two starts against the Yankees in the 2017 Division Series, including the decisive fifth game. So, no matter how far he has fallen from those heights, it will still be wild to see him in Yankee pinstripes.
Big Change: Ta-ta, Tanaka!
The Yankees have had some turnover in the bullpen, but they’re returning with the same lineup and an almost identical group of position players. The greatest change is in the rotation, and the thing that will likely stand out right away to Yankee fans is the absence of Masahiro Tanaka, who returned to Japan on a two-year deal with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. Tanaka arrived in New York amid a flood of hype, and though he ultimately fell short of it, he had nonetheless been a stalwart in the Yankee rotation for seven years, a fan favorite, and one of the team’s best postseason performers over that span. I wrote in more detail about Tanaka’s time with the Yankees in Issue 3, but it seems fair to say his absence will be noticeable.
Big Battle: Starting rotation
Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go (see the Big Question), the Yankees seem to have guaranteed Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, and Jameson Taillon rotation spots. There’s some wiggle room with regard to the last two spots, however. Jordan Montgomery, the only lefty starter on the 40-man roster, has the inside track to the fourth spot, but he posted a 5.11 ERA last year in his first extended exposure since June 2018 Tommy John surgery, so he won’t be impossible to supplant, particularly if he has a rough spring. Top prospect Deivi García is the pitcher everyone will be watching and may have the inside track to the fifth spot, but Domingo Germán has returned to the fold after serving an his suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy, Jonathan Loaisiga pitched well last year and deserves another chance to claim a spot, and prospects Michael King, Clark Schmidt, and Albert Abreu are all lurking, as well, all three of whom pitched in the majors last year, the first two of whom made starts.
Big Question: Will the comeback attempts in the rotation succeed?
Wait, are all of these about the rotation? Almost! Like I said, the Yankees are bringing back the same lineup, and they still have Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Chad Green as the big three in the bullpen. In terms of uncertainty, the rotation is where the action is, and it has plenty to go around.
Truth be told, Cole is the only sure thing in the Yankee rotation heading into camp. Kluber and Taillon combined to make just one start last year and 15 in the last two years combined. Kluber’s injuries over the last two years weren’t mechanical (fractured ulna, oblique strain, teres major tear), but they were constant, and he wasn’t that sharp before getting hurt in 2019. Kluber will be 35 in April, and there’s a chance that he’s just done. Taillon, meanwhile, hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since his second Tommy John surgery in August 2019, and durability has not been a strength of pitchers with multiple Tommy John surgeries, as I detailed in Issue 1.
Then there’s Germán, who served an 81-game suspension for domestic violence. The allegations against Germán have not been made public, but, as Kristie Ackert of the Daily News reported on Thursday, his teammates seem to know what happened, and they’re not all fully on board with Germán’s return to the team.
“Sometimes you don’t get to control who your teammates are,” Zack Britton told Ackert. “That’s the situation. I don’t agree with what he did.”
On the baseball side of Germán’s ledger, the 28-year-old righty hasn’t pitched since mid-September of 2019, and he was better in the first half of that season than the second half. If he is unwanted in the clubhouse, his bar to entry for the rotation may be set higher than those of others, and, if he does excel in camp, the Yankees may decide they’re better off trading him than playing him.
For those wondering, the Yankees do also have Luis Severino working his way back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery, but he isn’t expected back until June, so he won’t be a factor in camp.
NRI That-Guy: OF/1B Jay Bruce
The Orioles have the biggest name among their NRIs, but the Yankees are the that-guy champions of the AL East this year, with Bruce joined by Derek Dietrich, Robinson Chirinos, Jhoulys Chacín, and others. I used to think the Yankees’ interest in that-guys was on direct orders from George Steinbrenner, who was famous for seeing a player do something good once and demanding that he be fitted for pinstripes (I remain convinced that Tony Womack became a Yankee because of the final inning of the 2001 World Series). I now think that Brian Cashman either shared or has acquired that preference.
Bruce is one heck of a that-guy, a 13-year veteran and three-time All-Star with 318 home runs to his credit. Since 2018, however, he has hit just .217/.282/.448. He’ll be 34 in April, and the end is obviously near.
Sneak Peak: RHPs Luis Gil & Luis Medina
Teenage outfielder Jasson Dominguez isn’t ready for big-league camp yet, and Deivi García and Clarke Schmidt reached the majors last year, so we have to go outside the top-100 prospects lists here. On Baseball Prospectus’s list of the top 10 Yankee prospects from last month, those three were followed by these two, and since the Luises are so similar, I’ll include them both.
Luis Gil and Luis Medina are both Dominican right-handers who are already on the 40-man roster. Gil will be 23 this June. Medina is a year younger. Both are of average height and build but throw in the upper 90s. Both split the 2019 season between the Sally and High-A Florida State Leagues, and both threw about 100 innings in about 20 starts with roughly 11 strikeouts per nine innings that season.
The differences come in the fact that Gil had better walk and home run rates in 2019 and is considered the better prospect (at least by BP), but Medina can hit 102 on the gun and has the better secondary pitches, including a 90 mph changeup and, especially, his curveball. Both have front-of-the rotation potential, but Gil has more “reliever risk,” meaning he’s more likely to wind up in the bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays
Location: TD Ballpark, Dunedin, FL
New Duds: CF George Springer
Apologies to Marcus Semien. I was going to include him here as well, but when I looked at the two headshots, I had a much stronger reaction to seeing Springer in Blue Jays blue. That makes sense, he has made the last three All-Star games and gone deep into the last four postseasons with the Astros, so he has been a constant presence on national television. He was also one of my favorite of this last batch of Astros, and has been almost since before his debut.
Big Change: Springer and Semien
The Blue Jays were among the more aggressive teams this offseason, landing two of the top free agents on the market in Springer and Semien. Semien represents the larger change on first contact, as he is not only upgrading the Blue Jays’ infield, but moving from shortstop to second base and pushing Cavan Biggio to third base to do it. Springer merely pushes Randal Grichuk to the bench (or a share of the designated hitter duties), but Springer will likely hit higher up in the lineup (he led off for Houston) and is likely to have the larger impact with his bat.
Big Battle: Alejandro Kirk’s fight for playing time.
Panda-shaped catching prospect Alejandro Kirk so impressed the Jays down the stretch last year that he was the team’s designated hitter in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Rays (and picked up one of the Jays’ five hits in that game). A .315/.418/.500 hitter in the minors, the 22-year-old right-hander jumped from High-A to the majors last year, so he could easily head back to the minors to start the year. He could also steal playing time from fellow catching prospect Danny Jansen, who now owns an 80 OPS+ in 626 big-league plate appearances, or maintain his foothold at DH. Heading into camp, the most likely scenario is for lefty Rowdy Tellez to be the strong side of a DH platoon with displaced centerfielder Grichuk, who hit 31 home runs in 2019 and posted a 114 OPS+ in 2020, the favorite for the right-handed at-bats, but Kirk has a month to chip away at that plan.
Big Question: RHP Kirby Yates
Kirby Yates dominated out of the Padres’ bullpen in 2018 and ’19, posting a 1.67 ERA (240 ERA+), 0.91 WHIP, 6.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a deserved run average below 2.00. Last year, he missed most of the season due to surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow. That’s not a major surgery, so the Jays made a good bet by bringing Yates in to close. Still, he’ll be 34 next month, and the fact that the Padres, who weren’t pinching pennies this winter, let Yates sign elsewhere only to bring in veteran Mark Melancon makes you wonder if they know something about Yates’ arm, or the trends in his pitching, that we and/or the Blue Jays don’t.
NRI That-Guy: LHP Francisco Liriano
Liriano, who spent parts of 2016 and ’17 in the Blue Jays’ rotation, is a 14-year veteran with 112 wins to his name. He was an All-Star way back in 2006, when he was the hot new Twins ace, and picked up Cy Young votes in 2010, crowning his return from Tommy John surgery, and 2013, when he was the ace of the first Pirates playoff team in more than 20 years. Liriano see-sawed between starting and relief from 2017 to 2019 and sat out 2020 entirely, but, at 37, he is back in a Blue Jays uniform hoping to crack a heavily right-handed bullpen.
Sneak Peak: SS/OF Austin Martin
Selected out of Vanderbilt with the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft, Martin went straight to the alternate training site and will be in big-league camp this spring before ever getting into a regular season game as a professional. A top-20 prospect, his calling card is his bat, and it’s not clear what position he will play as a professional. That’s not because he lacks skill in the field, but because there are too many positions to pick from. That makes him something of a unicorn, a prospect with the potential for an elite bat who could arrive in the majors as a super-utility player. Or should I “superposition” player? After all, Martin will be a sort of Schrödinger’s prospect this spring; every time Charlie Montoyo fills out a lineup with Martin’s name in it, he will be opening the box so we can see observe the state of this cat.
Baltimore Orioles
Location: Ed Smith Stadium, Sarasota, FL
New Duds: SS Freddy Galvis
There’s not much to choose from here. Galvis is a nine-year veteran who has been a starting shortstop for three different teams over the last six years, most of those with the nearby Phillies. The Orioles are team number four.
Big Change: Galvis, I guess
Again, not much to see here. These are the Orioles, after all. The interesting things are still happening below the major-league level. Galvis replaces José Iglesias, who was Baltimore’s top hitter last year, in what was clearly a small-sample fluke, but wasn’t as good in the field as he usually is and spent a fair amount of time at designated hitter. Galvis is a very similar player, a glove-first veteran just three months older than Iglesias. So the big change is the hairstyle, I guess.
Big Battle: Second base
Speaking of good-field/no-hit infielders, Yolmer Sánchez might be the leader in the second-base competition coming into camp, but Pat Valaika, who had a nice small-sample year at the plate in 2020, and new acquisition Jahmai Jones, obtained from the Angels for Alex Cobb, intend to challenge him. Valaika and Jones are righties. Sánchez is a switch hitter who is slightly less useless at the plate from the left side. A platoon could be in order, but with such a wide-open opportunity, why settle for a third of the job when you could win the whole thing?
Big Question: OF/1B Trey Mancini
Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 (132 OPS+) with 35 home runs in 2019, then missed 2020 entirely after being diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer. Mancini had surgery to remove the tumor, completed his chemotherapy in September, and said he was cancer free in November. That’s all very good to hear, though one wonders what toll all of that took on his body and how he’ll respond after missing his entire age-28 season. What I do know, as someone who lost his grandmother to colon cancer decades ago, is that Mancini will be the Orioles player I’ll be most excited to see take the field this spring.
NRI That-Guy: RHP Félix Hernández
It’s not easy to out-that-guy Matt Harvey, who is now on the fifth team in his “Waldo of Sadness” tour of the major leagues (“Where’s Harvey? . . . oh, that makes me sad”). In this case, it took a player who looked like he was well on his way to the Hall of Fame until he hit 30 and it all blew away like a Marvel hero after Thanos snapped his fingers. I don’t need to share King Félix’s C.V. here. The mental dissonance caused by this picture says it all:
Sneak Peak: C Adley Rutschman
The top pick in the 2019 draft was just one Wander Franco away from being the top prospect in baseball coming into this season. Picture the ideal, switch-hitting catching prospect (bat, arm, receiving, blocking, pitcher-handling), have him come from Oregon, and you’ve got Rutschman, who could be in the majors as early as next year.
Boston Red Sox
Location: JetBlue Park, Fort Meyers, FL
New Duds: 2B/UT Enrique Hernández
Kiké isn’t the best player the Red Sox added this offseason, but he is the most famous, at least in the U.S. He has a huge personality, so the camera drifts toward him, and his antics tend to be memeable. Also, after six years and 58 postseason games with the Dodgers, Hernández, like fellow Duds dudes Pedro Báez and Joc Pederson, has become a familiar face under that Dodger-blue cap. Will he be as entertaining in working-class Boston in the Sox’s more muted navy blue? I sure hope so.
Big Change: The Outfield
Betts, Bradley, Benintendi . . . bon voyage! The World Series winning outfield of just three years ago, really just 28 months ago, is gone (well, Bradley is still unsigned, but he doesn’t seem likely to return at this point). In their place are two former Padres prospects with big power but who have struggled to bring the rest of their games up to speed: fragile 26-year-old lefty Franchy Cordero and 29-year-old righty Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo, who will be 25 in May, will slide into centerfield after a strong first season in Boston last year. Those players are all compelling in their own way, but there is a lot of boom-or-bust potential in that outfield, particularly in the corners.
Big Battle: Marwin González vs. the other new guys
If Franchy gets hurt? Marwin! If Hunter’s no good? Marwin! If Kiké’s needed elsewhere? Marwin! Marwin! Marwin! González, and Hernández for that matter, is a very valuable for his ability to plug the leaks that might spring in a lineup, but Marwin isn’t headed to camp content to wait his turn. He wants to be a brick, not the mortar, so he’ll give Kiké, Franchy, and Hunter a run for their money in camp, and just might steal one of their jobs along the way.
Big Question: RHP Eduardo Rodríguez
Of all of the players to test positive for COVID-19 last year and this, Rodríguez is the one that we know had a serious complication. Last July, Rodríguez was diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, and was forced to cease all strenuous activity for three months. The good news is that he was able to resume workouts in late September and has reportedly had a relatively normal offseason. Still, players are often surprised by how their bodies react when they start ramping up for the season (see Aches and Pains below), so we don’t know how Rodríguez will endure, or just how much and how effectively he’ll be able to pitch this year. We won’t get the full answer to that in Spring Training, but we’ll learn more than we know now, as will he.
NRI That-Guy: RHP Kevin McCarthy
Thankfully, this is not the House minority leader (though I’d love to see that guy taken off the roster). This is former Royals reliever Kevin McCarthy, who, while you probably didn’t notice, posted a 124 ERA+ in 154 games from 2017 to 2019. McCarthy, who turns 29 on Monday, is a pitch-to-contact groundballer with a deep repertoire for a reliever and rapidly declining velocity. He is very much non-roster material, but because the Royals have been so lousy over the last four years, he got an excess of major-league opportunities.
Sneak Peak: 1B Triston Casas
Casas went to American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida, a set of names that are one Confederate flag away from a hate crime. I won’t hold that against Casas, though, nor will I the fact that, in his official team headshot, he looks like a Corey Feldman character from a straight-to-video movie about a teenage pitching prodigy who drives a pink Corvette in from the bullpen.
The real Triston Casas idolizes Joey Votto, which is a good sign on many levels. He is also a massive, 6-foot-4, 250 pound, 21-year-old first baseman who was drafted 26th overall in 2018 and hit .254/.349/.472 with 19 homers in the Sally League in 2019 as a 19-year-old (that’s a lot of nineteens). Bobby Dalbec, I know you just got here, but the clock is ticking . . .
Newswire
The New Dunedin Blue Jays
During last year’s abbreviated season, restrictions at the Canadian border prevented the Blue Jays from travelling to and from Toronto during the season. As a result, they played their home games in Buffalo, New York’s Sahlen Field, the home of the team’s Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons. This year, as reported by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith on Wednesday and confirmed by the team on Thursday, the Blue Jays will play at least its first two homestands of the season at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida. TD Ballpark is the team’s Spring Training facility and the home of another of the team’s minor league affiliates, the Dunedin Blue Jays (which means we can’t jokingly call the major-league Blue Jays the Dunedin Blue Jays without causing confusion).
The Jays are scheduled to open the 2021 season at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Their first homestand consists of six games against the Yankees and Angels from April 8 to April 14. After another road trip, they’ll return to Dunedin on April 27 for two games against the Nationals and three against the Braves. Those 11 games are the only ones the team has committed to play in Dunedin thus far, though I suspect that the border won’t be reopened by mid-May, so we’re likely to see the Jays call Dunedin home for quite a bit longer.
Per Davidi and Nicholson-Smith, the Blue Jays spent $600,000 to upgrade the lights at TD Ballpark last year in expectation of playing their home games there, but opted for Buffalo when COVD-19 cases spiked in Florida. The Jays went 17-9 (.654) in Buffalo last year compared to just 15-19 (.441) on the road, so the relocation didn’t hurt their performance.
Minor League Realignment
Speaking of the Dunedin Blue Jays, they were the Jays’ High-A affiliate from 1990 to 2019, but they have been bumped down to A-ball this year as part of Major League Baseball’s dramatic minor-league realignment. Baseball announced the full details of their realignment last Friday, but most teams learned of their fates in December. That included 42 teams that lost their affiliation, a devastating blow that Eric Nusbaum, author of Stealing Home: Los Angeles, the Dodgers, and the Lives Caught in Between, wrote about through the lens of the now-unaffiliated Salem-Keizer Volcanoes in this year’s Baseball Prospectus annual.
As Nusbaum writes, and as one could easily infer, the loss of affiliation is devastating to those teams, which are, first and foremost, small businesses that employ hundreds of people and play a large role in their local economies. As a result, those changes could be devastating to those employees and those economies, as well. Even a demotion—like the one suffered by the Dunedin Blue Jays or, more dramatically, the Trenton Thunder, which went from being the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate to an unaffiliated collegiate summer team in a newly created showcase league—can undermine a minor league team’s drawing power and earning potential.
On the baseball side of things, the stripping of affiliation from 42 teams means that there will be at least a thousand fewer players on affiliated teams when the minor-leagues resume play this year than there were at the end of the 2019 season. The minor-league realignment is thus a horrendously cruel act by a $10 billion industry that punishes local small businesses and aspiring athletes in the name of cost-cutting and efficiency.
As Nusbaum writes:
To MLB and its 30 clubs, the consolidation of the minor leagues from a freeform mass of semi-independent outposts into an efficient, orderly extension of the league itself was merely a business decision. . . . The remaking of the minors will forever alter the balance of power in the relationships between parent clubs and affiliates across the country . . . It will consolidate more of the “brand” of pro baseball in the hands of a company that for all the fan surveys and consultant-driven moves has proven to be blithely unaware of what fans actually like about the sport. And it will devastate individual clubs like the Volcanoes, communities like Salem-Keizer and families across the country—and perhaps, in the long run, devastate the sport of baseball itself.
As distasteful as it is, however, continuing to follow the game requires an understanding of the structure of the minor leagues. So, here’s how the affiliated minor leagues are now organized (click to enlarge):
One thing you might notice right away are the generic league names. The Associated Press’s Ronald Blum reports that final decisions have not yet been made about the league names, but, for now, gone are the Pacific Coast League, the South Atlantic “Sally” League, the California and Carolina Leagues, the Florida State League, etc. In are “Triple-A West” and “High-A Central.” The stakes are far lower, but the language of the game has taken a blow here, as well.
The next thing you’ll notice is the absence of short-season A-ball and Rookie leagues. Clubs are allowed to organize teams at their Spring Training complexes (not that the Blue Jays have any more room to do so) and in the Dominican Republic. So, though they are not included in the above schematic, two of the four Rookie leagues, the Gulf Coast and Arizona Leagues, will persist as affiliated complex leagues, and the Dominican Summer League will continue, as well. The other two, now-unaffiliated Rookie leagues will continue in a different form. The Pioneer League has gone independent, and the Appalachian League has become a college summer league for rising freshman and sophomores. The short-season leagues, however, have been eliminated. The New York-Penn League, founded in 1939, and the Northwest League, founded in 1955, are gone.
Gone, as well, is the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues, which had been the governing body of the minor leagues since 1901. The minor leagues, now collectively known as the Professional Development Leagues, or PDL, will be run out of MLB’s New York offices by senior vice president of minor league operations and development Peter Woodfork, who was formerly senior vice president of MLB’s on-field operations.
The independent Pioneer and Frontier Leagues and the American Association join the Atlantic League as “partner leagues” of Major League Baseball, meaning their teams are unaffiliated but the leagues have a working relationship with MLB, such as the one signed in 2015 that allowed commissioner Rob Manfred to experiment with new rules in the Atlantic League. The Appalachian League and new MLB Draft League will serve as showcase leagues for players entering the draft. The four partner leagues, the two showcase leagues, and the two complex leagues add 89 teams to the 120 in the schematic above for a total of 209.
Meanwhile, there has been a great deal of rearranging of teams between levels and affiliations. If you want to know who your favorite team’s minor league affiliates are, or where your local minor league teams wound up, click on that image above and take a closer look.
Transaction Reactions
Padres sign SS Fernando Tatis Jr. to a 14-year, $340 million extension
The Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been such a welcome source of joy over the last 16 months, dating back to the reveal of the team’s new uniforms in November 2019. This contract—the third-largest in major-league history, the largest by far ever given to a player prior to his arbitration years, and the longest in major-league history, surpassing the 13-year-deal the Phillies gave Bryce Harper two years ago—is yet another example of why. It is good for everyone involved: the team, the player, the fans, and Major League Baseball.
One of the game’s most talented, entertaining, and charismatic young players, Tatis won’t have salary disputes, contract squabbles, or a looming free agency hanging over his head until the mid 2030s. He can just play and focus on being the best and most entertaining player he can be, on helping his team win, and on putting time and money back into the community, both in San Diego and his home country of the Dominican Republic.
Compare Tatis’s situation to that of fellow shortstop/source of joy Francisco Lindor. Lindor finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015, helped lead his team to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, finished fifth in the AL MVP voting in 2017, and had his most productive season yet in 2018. He then spent the last two years as the subject of constant trade rumors as his salary escalated via arbitration and Cleveland showed no willingness to spend money on its roster. Did that hurt his performance on the field? Some have speculated it did, but it certainly hurt his enjoyment of the game and the fans’ enjoyment of him. Still just 27, he was traded to the Mets last month, and, if the Mets don’t extend him, he could be on his third team in three years by this time next year.
Which of those situations is better for baseball, better for fans, better for the player, better for the team? It’s the big commitment every time.
As Ken Rosenthal reported on MLB Network Tuesday night, the Padres have made up their minds to spend money to make money. What a novel concept: investing in your team and its players and trusting that an entertaining, successful ballclub will also be a profitable one. Credit general manager A.J. Preller for his continued aggressiveness and the team’s ownership—chairman and majority owner Peter Seidler, vice chairman and minority partner Ron Fowler, and CEO Erik Greupner—for buying in on it (the team extended Preller himself by four years earlier this month; I looked back at Preller’s tenure with the Padres in Issue 6).
Tatis, who had a full no-trade clause in his new deal, will be 35 in the final year of this contract (which is 2035; try not to think about how old you will be then). The average annual value of his contract is $24.3 million, very reasonable at a time when the game’s biggest stars are making upwards of $35 million a year. The exact dollar amount means very little to me, however. What matters is that the Padres have done something great for baseball, for their fans, and for Tatis himself by securing their superstar shortstop for the bulk of his career. I just wish more teams operated this way.
A’s sign RHP Trevor Rosenthal ($11M/1yr) and 1B Mitch Moreland ($2.25M/1yr), IF Nate Orf retired
Signing Rosenthal and Moreland fills the holes created by the departures of closer Liam Hendriks and designated hitter Khris Davis. Rosenthal and Moreland were both acquired by the Padres for the stretch run last year and move together up the coast to Oakland for the coming season. Rosenthal was close to perfect in nine regular season appearances for San Diego, but was lit up in the playoffs. He can still hit triple digits on the radar gun and has increased his slider usage in recent years, but he remains volatile and prone to extreme wildness. He was great for the Royals and Padres last year, posting a 1.90 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 4.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2019, however, those figures were 13.50, 2.41, and 0.65, respectively. In 2018, he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. The A’s have the bullpen depth to survive if Rosenthal implodes again this year, so this is a worthwhile upside gamble, provided they act quickly and decisively enough it goes bust. Curiously, the A’s are deferring $8 million of Rosenthal’s salary to 2022 and ’23, according to baseball’s other Rosenthal (though I’d argue that Trevor is really the other Rosenthal).
Moreland, meanwhile, will slot right in at DH, where Davis posted a dismal 83 OPS+ over the last two years. Moreland, who hit .251/.329/.479 (112 OPS+) over the last three seasons with the Red Sox and Padres, should be an easy upgrade there and provides a viable backup to Matt Olson at first base. However, Mitch is a career .238/.300/.372 hitter against lefties, so there’s still an opening for a right-handed platoon partner for Moreland. Assuming Chad Pinder will be playing second base against lefties, the A’s don’t have many in-house options for that role, and the number of options they do have shrunk on Wednesday with the retirement of 31-year-old, right-handed-hitting infielder Nate Orf.
Giants sign RHP Aaron Sanchez ($4M/1yr)
I’m surprised to see Sanchez getting a major-league deal, let alone one for $4 million. A top Blue Jays prospect, he was an All-Star in 2016, but a chronic blister issue and other assorted finger problems have undermined him ever since. He posted a 5.29 ERA (84 ERA+) from 2017 to 2019 and missed 2020 after having surgery to repair a torn capsule in his pitching shoulder. According to Susan Slusser, Sanchez hit 98 mph in a recent showcase, which is an encouraging sign with regard to that recent surgery, but Sanchez was still spiking to 97 or 98 over the last three years. The problem was his command, control, and that blister. The 28 year old is expected to compete for a rotation spot this spring.
Cubs sign RHP Brandon Workman ($1M/1yr + $2M incentives)
The 32-year-old Workman had a nice run in the Red Sox bullpen from 2017 to ’19, posting a 2.59 ERA (180 ERA+), striking out 10.5 men per nine innings, and ascending to the closer’s role in 2019. However, his walk rates have been climbing since 2017, and, last year, things went fully sideways on him after a trade to the Phillies, as he walked nine men and gave up four home runs in 13 innings for Philadelphia. That’s a tiny sample, and the Phillies’ bullpen as a whole appeared to be cursed last year, but those walk rates remain a significant concern.
Rays re-sign RHP Oliver Drake ($755K/1yr), acquire RHP Chris Mazza and RHP Jeffrey Springs from the Red Sox for minor leaguers C Ronaldo Hernández and IF Nick Sogard
Drake, the most accomplished of the three pitchers the Rays added on Wednesday, had a career-year out of the Rays’ bullpen in 2019 (139 OPS+, 3.68 K/BB), but battled arm problems last year (biceps tendonitis, flexor strain). Tampa Bay is giving the 34-year-old another chance on a six-figure deal that is all upside.
With regard to the trade, Mazza is a 31-year-old with a low-90s sinker who is on his sixth organization and has appeared in all of 18 major-league games. Springs is a 28-year-old with a career 91 ERA+ who also throws in the low 90s with an 80 mph changeup. Hernández, a 23-year-old catcher from Colombia with a strong arm and some power potential, topped out at High-A in 2019 and takes a spot on Boston’s 40-man roster. Sogard, a 23-year-old infielder, was a 12th-round pick out of Loyola Marymount University in 2019. He collected 62 hits in low-A in 2019, 57 of them were singles.
Marlins acquire RHP John Curtiss from the Rays for minor league 1B Evan Edwards
John Pickens Curtiss, who will turn 28 in April, is straight out of reliever central casting: a 6-foot-5 Texan with a mid-90s fastball and a slider. He has all of 35 major-league games under his belt. First baseman Edwards was a fourth-round pick out of NC State in 2019 and, heading into his age-24 season, has yet to play in a league in which he is not older than the average player.
Red Sox claim RHP John Schreiber off waivers from the Tigers
Sidearmer John Schreiber, who will turn 27 in March, has pitched better in his 28 major-league relief appearances than his career 6.28 ERA would suggest. Deserved run average puts him closer to a 5.00 mark. Still not great, but quite a bit better, and that’s all runs, not just the earnies. Schreiber’s strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors is 4.13, which is quite good. His problem has been a .370 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and a worrisome fly-ball rate. He misses too many bats to be that hittable, so there should be some correction in his favor if he keeps getting opportunities. It’s an indication of how low the Red Sox have sunk that they may have just improved their roster by claiming a player the Tigers didn’t want.
2B Brian Dozier retires
Dozier, 33, appeared in just seven games last year going 2-for-15 with a walk and no extra base hits. He’ll be remembered for his four-year run with the Twins during which he was something like a five-win player on an annual basis, hitting .254/.338/.476 (120 OPS+) while averaging 32 home runs, 34 doubles, 4 triples, 17 stolen bases (at a 77 percent success rate), and 106 runs scored per season and playing an above-average second base. He won the Gold Glove in 2017 and picked up some MVP votes three years in a row, but he only made one All-Star team, in 2015. He should have made at least one more during those years.
The end came quick. His bat cooled a bit in 2018, and the Twins dealt him to the Dodgers at that year’s deadline. He won a championship riding pine for the Nationals in 2019 (he went 0-for-6 in that postseason), signed with the Padres for 2020 but moved over to the Mets before the delayed season started, then had that last gasp. He retires with 1,055 hits, 192 homers, 105 stolen bases, a 107 OPS+ and 23.2 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference.
Aches and Pains
I don’t know if this is going to be a regular part of the The Cycle going forward. This is not a fantasy newsletter, and cataloguing every little bump and bruise that a manager mentions to the beat reporters can be maddening. Still, during this window between players reporting and the start of exhibition games, injuries and extensions are about all we have. So, I’m going to put this here and see if it sticks.
This section will focus on new injury or illness revelations. If Pitcher X throws a bullpen and feels fine, it won’t get a mention here, even if he’s returning form injury or surgery and/or was a Big Question in my Spring Training Preview series. Similarly, if a player had Tommy John surgery in the last year or so, I won’t bother mentioning that he will be delayed or placed on the injured list, as that’s a given. However, if a player’s timeline for recovery changes for the worse, I will include that here.
The idea of this section is to acknowledge these injuries without exaggerating their significance, so unless a major player suffers a major injury, or I really have something to add, this will be just the facts. Injuries are listed, subjectively, according to the profile of the player and the severity of the injury. If you see “(IL),” that indicates a player placed on or headed for the injured list.
To begin with, per the new protocols, players had to quarantine for five days then test negative for COVID-19 before reporting to camp. Not all of them passed that intake test. Here are the players that we know tested positive for COVID-19:
Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland (“very, very mild symptoms,” source)
Frankie Montas, RHP, A’s (flu-like symptoms, “going to be a little bit behind,” source)
Kyle Ryan, LHP, Cubs (placed on COVID-19 injured list Wednesday, “somewhat delayed,” source)
Kevin Plawecki, C, Red Sox (placed on COVID-19 injured list)
Stephen Vogt, C, Diamondbacks
Luis Frias, RHP, Diamondbacks
Phillies C J.T. Realmuto: small fracture in right thumb
Injury suffered blocking a ball in the dirt over the weekend. Immobilized for two weeks. Likely to be out of action until mid-March. Still hopeful for Opening Day. (source)
Natinals RHP Max Scherzer: sprained left ankle
Injury suffered during conditioning two weeks ago. Will start slowly in camp but not expected to be delayed. (source) Note: By sheer coincidence, my wife severely sprained her ankle two weeks ago, and, though she is still painful, she is already walking without a limp. Two to three weeks is a typical recovery time for an injury like that.
White Sox LHP Jayce Fry (IL): microdiscectomy
Fry had surgery in January to removed damaged portions of a disc in his back. He will open the season on the injured list and won’t return until sometime in May. (source)
Rangers RHP Demarcus Evans (IL): strained latissimus dorsi
Evans won’t throw off a mound until mid-March and thus will have to open the season on the injured list. (source)
Marlins RHP Jeff Brigham (IL): placed on 60-day IL
The Marlins did not specify the reason for placing Brigham on the 60-day injured list, but it rules him out for Opening Day.
Giants RHP Melvin Adon (IL): shoulder surgery
Adon got hurt playing winter ball and is likely to open the season on the injured list. (source)
Angels LHP Alex Claudio: hip infection
Claudio has not reported to camp yet. Manager Joe Maddon said Claudio could be out a week or two, possibly longer, which means he might not be ready for Opening Day. (source)
Cubs RHP Rowan Wick: intercostal strain
General manager Jed Hoyer says Wick “will be a little bit behind.” (source)
BAL SS Richie Martin: left hamate surgery
Recovery from hamate surgery, in which the broken hamate bone is removed from the hand, is typically six weeks. That would put Martin back in action around mid-March.
A’s C Sean Murphy: collapsed lung
Murphy woke up with a collapsed lung a few weeks ago and underwent surgery to repair the condition. He will be inactive for a few weeks, but the A’s say his prognosis is good, and they believe they can have him ready for Opening Day. (source)
Blue Jays RHP Patrick Murphy: shoulder
Per Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling, “Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo didn’t specify the exact nature of the injury, when it occurred, or how long it’s expected to keep Murphy off a mound . . . ‘Right now, he’s out for sure. Not for a long period of time. But we’re going to take it easy with him.’” (source)
Dodgers RHP Joe Kelly: “a little sore”
“Not quite” ready to throw a bullpen just yet, per manager Dave Roberts. (source)
Dodgers RHP Mitch White: “a little sore”
Not ready to throw a bullpen yet, per manager Dave Roberts. (source)
Rangers RHP Joely Rodriguez: sprained ankle
“a bit behind schedule”; Rodriguez is also one of several players delayed in arriving to camp due to visa issues, but that is expected to be cleared up quickly (source)
White Sox 2B Nick Madrigal: rehabbing from shoulder surgery
Madrigal separated his shoulder last August and had surgery to clean up the joint in October. He will be about a week behind in camp and will miss the first week of exhibition games, but should be good to go for Opening Day. (source)
Corrections
Trevor Bauer contract details clarified
In Issue 7, I relayed the reported breakdown of Trevor Bauer’s $102 million deal with the Dodgers as consisting of a $40 million salary for 2021, $45 million for 2022, and $17 million for 2023, with opt outs after each of the first two years. Unsurprisingly, it is more complicated than that, though the basic analysis, that it is more of a two-year, $85 million contract with a $17 million option for a third year, remains true.
The actual breakdown, which was reported on Wednesday, includes a $10 million signing bonus, a $28 million salary for 2021, and a $32 million salary for each of the next two years. However, if Bauer opts out of the third year, he gets a $15 million buyout, which means that he’d only make $17 million more if he stuck around a played for L.A. that season. The signing bonus, 2021 and ’22 salaries, and that buyout add up to $85 million. Also, if he opts out after this season, he gets a $2 million buyout. Add the signing bonus, and that means he would make $40 million for this year alone if he opted out in November. So the initial breakdown was accurate in terms of Bauer’s actual earnings, but not in terms of the amount of those earnings technically designated as salary. Full details available (there are other wrinkles, including the possibility of some deferred salary if he opts out this November) at the essential Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
New Cleveland Cap
In Issue 10, I said that the Padres were the only team with a new Spring Training cap this year. They are actually one of two. I overlooked the fact that Cleveland has a new design, in part because the change is so subtle. Last year’s cap (on the left below) had their script “Indians” inside the block C and on the right side of the cap. With that team nickname on the way out after this year, the Cleveland club wisely opted to replace that script with a block “Cleveland” (on the right below). That’s an upgrade from a social-justice standpoint, but at best a parallel move in terms of design. These are still pretty stupid. Tip of the cap to Paul Lukas and Chris Creamer’s new Unified podcast for pointing that one out.
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Closing Credits
Beyoncé’s “Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)” doesn’t’ need much of an introduction. It was one of the biggest hits of 2008 and ’09, hitting number-one in the U.S., UK, Canada and Brazil, and topping Billboard’s Hot 100, Mainstream Top 40, Adult R&B, Dance Club, and Hot R&B/Hip-Hop charts in the U.S. It won three Grammys, including Song of the Year, two ASCAP awards, plus a Kids’ Choice, Teen Choice, TRL, and Soul Train award, and it has sold more than five million copies. In addition, the video won video of the year at the MTV, MTV Europe, BET, and MOBO (Music of Black Origin) awards. It also kicked of a dance craze that resembled an early online challenge, with people performing the video’s distinct dance steps, and inspired many professional parody videos.
The track itself—written by Beyoncé, Thaddis “Kuk” Harrell, Terius Nash (a.k.a. The-Dream), and Christopher “Tricky” Stewart and produced by Nash & Stewart—is relatively spare, built around quarter-note handclaps, a pounding bass drum, and Beyoncé’s call-and-response vocals, with her solo lead answered by her voice in multi-tracked harmony. Above, behind, and around all of that are various sound effects that come and go, and a low synth bass that shows up at the end of the chorus and on the bridge. The hook is the rhythm, the call-and-response, and the repetition of the chorus, particularly the “whoah oh oh ohhh” section.
The video is a straight-forward dance routine performed by Beyoncé, Ebony Williams, and Ashley Everett shot on a bare stage in high-contrast black and white with an active camera and various lighting cues. It was choreographed by Frank Gatson Jr. and JaQuel Knight and was inspired by a Bob Fosse-choreographed routine set to the Johnny Mandel instrumental “Mexican Breakfast” that was performed by Fosse’s wife Gwen Verdon and two other women on The Ed Sullivan Show in 1969 (embedded below after “Single Ladies”). That routine had caught Beyoncé’s attention after it went viral under a dub of Unk’s “Walk It Out,” and several moves from that routine are imported directly into “Single Ladies,” including the famous, downward-angled-robot-arm walk.
The routine also incorporates elements of J-Setting, a dance style popularized by the dance line of Jackson State University’s marching band in the 1970s. Like the song, the video works because of its simplicity, the call-and-response in the dancing, and the repetition of seemingly simple moves. It also benefits from the beauty of the photography and its subjects, which have a bit of a Herb Ritts vibe.
Speaking of robots, Beyoncé’s key accessory in the video is the titanium roboglove that was the signature of the alter-ego she created for the album from which “Single Ladies” comes, I am . . . Sasha Fierce. Sasha Fierce, was a double album with softer “Beyoncé” songs on the first disc, and harder “Sasha Fierce” songs on the second disc. “Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)” is the lead track on that second disc.
The song is a breakup song directed to a recent long-term partner who couldn’t commit and a celebration of the sexual freedom that follows the breakup with the message to the dumped that, “if you liked it then you should have put a ring on it.”
I end with it today because the Padres did put a ring on it, metaphorically, and their having done so greatly increases the odds that they and Fernando Tatis Jr. will put a ring on it, literally, by winning the franchise’s first World Series at some point during the course of Tatis’s 14-year contract. As for Cleveland and Colorado, perhaps the Cubs, and every other team that trades their superstars rather than making that commitment:
You had your turn and now you gonna learn
What it really feels like to miss me
‘Cuz if you liked it then you should have put a ring on it
If you liked it then you should have put a ring on it
Don’t be mad once you see that he want it
If you liked it then you should have put a ring on it
Woah oh oh . . .
Speaking of, let ‘em know to check out The Cycle and put a ring on it by subscribing: