The Cycle, Issue 11: Render Unto Szczur
NL Central Spring Training Previews, fragile lefty pitchers, Brad Miller’s socks, and (a little) more
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
With a quick turnaround from yesterday’s overstuffed issue, I’m keeping things tight today, but the National League Central is still getting the full Spring Training Preview treatment.
Also:
Transaction Reactions: I’ll take “Fragile Lefties Named Anderson” for $2.5 million, Alex!
Feedback
Closing Credits
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Spring Training Preview: NL Central
Spring Training is underway, but the exhibition schedule doesn’t start for another couple of weeks. To tide you over until we get closer to the actual games (which start on Sunday, February 28), The Cycle will be spending this week and next highlighting some of the more compelling spring storylines for each team in my Spring Training Previews.
One of the joys of Spring Training is seeing offseason acquisitions in their new uniforms, so each preview will start with the player that team and its fans are likely most excited to see in their “New Duds.” I’ll then highlight the “Big Change” for each team, the thing that has changed most from last year to this; the “Big Battle,” that’s the position battle most likely to be decided by spring performance (even if the idea of evaluating players based on exhibition play is ridiculous and outdated); the “Big Question,” that’s the one unknown that might be answered before the season starts; an “NRI That-Guy,” a familiar major-league veteran who is in camp as a non-roster invitee; and, finally, the top prospect on that team whom we have yet to see in the majors but might get a “Sneak Peak” at this spring.
I started on Tuesday with the American League West. Today, we continue with the National League Central. As with my Offseason Report Cards, teams are presented in order of their 2020 finish.
Chicago Cubs
Location: Sloan Park, Mesa, AZ
New Duds: LF Joc Pederson
Chicago fans may get a jolt of recognition or nostalgia from seeing Jake Arrieta back in a Cubs uniform for the first time since 2017, but the site of Pederson in Cubbie blue and red will remind them that it’s 2021. Like Pedro Báez with the Astros, Pederson had spent his entire professional career in the Dodgers organization prior to this year and has become a familiar site on national television in October, hitting .272/.349/.503 across 64 postseason games, including 11 games against the Cubs in the 2016 and ’17 National League Championship Series. Curiously, Pederson never did much hitting against the Cubs, batting just .122/.225/.244 in 103 plate appearances across 40 games in the regular and postseason. Here’s hoping he’s more productive in a Cubs uniform than he was when facing pitchers wearing one.
Big Change: Starting rotation
In 2020, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, and Tyler Chatwood combined to start nearly half of the Cubs’ games (29 of 60), with Darvish finishing second in the Cy Young voting, a ranking Lester achieved in 2016, Lester’s second of six seasons in the Cubs’ rotation. This year, all three are gone, and Darvish and Lester’s absences will be significant, albeit for different reasons (Darvish due to quality, Lester due to quantity and seniority). Righties Zach Davies and Jake Arrieta are their ostensible replacements, and, with several pitchers battling for the fifth spot (Trevor Williams, Adbert Alzolay, Tyson Miller, Kohl Stewart, and top prospect Brailyn Marquez should all get looks), it’s possible that Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills could be Chicago’s only rotation holdovers.
Big Battle: Closer
Craig Kimbrel was one of the best closers in major-league history in his twenties and was supposed to solidify the back end of Chicago’s bullpen when the Cubs signed him to a three-year deal in June of 2019. Instead, he has posted a 75 ERA+ in 36 innings over the first two years of that deal while walking 26 men and allowing 11 home runs. Jeremy Jeffress secured the bulk of the Cubs’ saves last year, but he’s still a free agent. This year, 28-year old righty Rowan Wick could claim the job. Wick has posted a 2.66 ERA (167 ERA+) in two years with the team and saved four games last year. Kimbrel, now in his walk year, may still have the inside track heading into camp, in part because Wick has already suffered an intercostal strain, but if Kimbrel continues to struggle, look for Wick to whisk the job away.
Big Question: What is going to happen to the walk-year stars?
Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are all due to become free agents this fall (perhaps you’ve heard). When a player of that significance approaches his walk year, it’s common for teams to try to extend or trade them. Thus far, the Cubs have succeeded in doing neither with any of the three. However, as I wrote in my preamble to this series on Tuesday, the news this time of year is typically dominated by two things: injuries (see Rowan Wick above) and contract extensions. Bryant trade rumors were still swirling as recently as last week, though Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer called them inaccurate on Monday. Meanwhile, Báez and the Cubs avoided arbitration in mid-January by coming to terms on an $11.65 million salary for this year. Having that in place could allow the Cubs to take their time in extension talks with Báez. It could also provide other teams with some necessary certainty in Báez trade talks. Thus far, there has been no word of either with regard to Báez or Rizzo, but if an extension is going to happen for any of the Cubs’ three signature stars, it would most likely happen during Spring Training.
NRI That-Guy: RHP Shelby Miller
Things have not gone well for Shelby Miller since the Diamondbacks made the so-very-first-guessable blunder of trading 2015’s top-overall draft pick, shortstop Dansby Swanson, underappreciated centerfielder Ender Inciarte, and pitching prospect Aaron Blair to the Braves for Miller and reliever Gabe Speier after the 2015 season. Miller was an All-Star in 2015, but has been beset by injury and poor performance since, posting a 6.89 ERA (68 ERA+) in 183 innings in the four years after the trade before opting out of the 2020 season. Former first-round picks like Miller (number-19 overall by the Cardinals in 2009) get extra chances, but this might be the 30-year-old’s last.
Sneak Peak: C Miguel Amaya
Lefty Brailyn Marquez is the Cubs’ top prospect, but he made his major-league debut last year (however brief and unsuccessful it may have been). The Cubs have not included outfielder Brennen Davis among their announced non-roster invitees. That passes this distinction down to Amaya, a Panamanian catcher who will turn 22 in three weeks. Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com both ranked Amaya 89th among the top prospects in all of baseball heading into this season. That’s not all that exciting, nor is Amaya, but he does everything well enough to project him as a future starting catcher in the majors, if not quite a star. Amaya topped out at High-A in 2019 and could be on time to succeed Austin Romine in a part-time role next year and Willson Contreras as the Cubs’ starting catcher in 2023.
Cincinnati Reds
Location: Goodyear Ballpark, Goodyear, AZ
New Duds: LHP Sean Doolittle
The Reds did very little adding this offseason, drawing one of the three F’s I handed out during my Offseason Report Cards series. At 34, Doolittle is clearly past his prime, with chronic knee problems hastening his decline. Still, as a (former?) closer, regular postseason performer, and outstanding social media and community presence, he’s a big enough star for fans to still have that “hey, that’s Sean Doolittle in our team’s uniform” reaction to seeing him in camp.
Big Change: Bullpen
Again, the Reds didn’t do much this offseason, so there isn’t a lot of change to which Reds fans will have to adjust. The biggest changes are the departures of 2020 NL Cy Young award winner Trevor Bauer, via free agency, and closer Raisel Iglesias, via trade. Bauer was a bigger contributor to last year’s expanded-playoff participants, but Iglesias’s absence has the larger ripple effect, as it will leave that closing job, which he had held down for four seasons, open to the likes of righty Lucas Sims, lefty Amir Garrett, and new addition Doolittle. Also, of the 13 players the Reds added to their 40-man roster from outside the organization this winter, the majority are likely to contribute out of the bullpen, if at all, this season.
In addition to Doolittle, the Reds acquired righty Noé Ramirez from the Angels in the Iglesias trade. They signed former Phillies reliever Edgar García to a major-league deal. They made a busted-prospect swap with the Rockies that netted righty Jeff Hoffman, who, at 28, seems well into the salvaging-his-career-in-the-pen stage of his career, as was Robert Stephenson, the player for whom he was traded. Other newly-arrived marginal starters who could wind up emerging in the pen include former Astros Cionel Pérez and Brandon Bailey and former Blue Jays righty Hector Perez (no typo there, Pérez uses and accent on his last name, Perez does not). Meanwhile, Nate Jones, who was tied with Garrett for the second-most relief appearances on last year’s team, has gone to the Braves. Also gone are Stephenson, Cody Reed, Archie Bradley, Tyler Thornburg (still unsigned as a free agent), Brooks Raley, Pedro Strop, and aspiring two-way player Matt Davidson, all of whom combined for 43 relief appearances last year.
Big Battle: Shortstop
When the A’s traded for Elvis Andrus, I made reference to them losing a game of musical shortstops this offseason, but the Reds were the real losers. The problem is that the Blue Jays, who weren’t even supposed to be playing, snuck in and stole a chair (Marcus Semien, who will move to second base), as did the Twins (Andrelton Simmons, who pushes Jorge Polanco to second base). So, while the Rangers set out an extra chair (Isiah Kiner-Falefa, moving over from third base), the league was still one short, and the Reds were left standing.
Now, without having acquired a replacement for Freddy Galvis (now an Oriole to replace José Iglesias, who is now an Angel to replace Simmons, the stolen chair), the Reds have to sort through their in-house options, which are not all that encouraging. Only two Reds other than Galvis played shortstop for the major-league team last year. One of them was Cuban prospect José García, who made 19 starts at short and hit .194 with one walk, no extra-base hits, and 26 strikeouts. García is a talented player, but he had never played above High-A before and clearly needs to learn how to hit more advanced pitching before getting another big-league chance. The other was Kyle Farmer, who made 10 starts at the position. The problem there is that Farmer is not a shortstop. He’s a 30-year-old catcher/utility man. Yes, he acquitted himself well at the position last year, but that doesn’t mean he should be making 120-plus starts out there.
Who else do they have? Former first-round pick Alex Blandino is still on the 40-man, but he didn’t even crack the major-league roster last year and he hasn’t played as many as 20 games at short since 2015, a reflection of the fact that he’s overextended at the position. The Reds added shortstop Kyle Holder in December’s Rule 5 draft, but he’s 27 and has never played above Double-A. They just plucked infielder Max Schrock off waivers from the Cubs, but Count Orlok (I’m going to make that nickname stick) is more of a second/third/outfield utility man who has played just 12 games at short as a professional. Nick Senzel has played all of eight innings at short as a pro. That’s it for the 40-man. The Reds haven’t announced all of their non-roster invitees yet. Of those they have, the only one relevant here is Dee Strange-Gordon, but he hasn’t played more than a handful of games at short in any single year since 2013.
The battle here isn’t so much between shortstops, but a battle find a shortstop. The Reds just don’t have one and may have to bring in outside reinforcements before the season starts.
Big Question: CF Nick Senzel and LF Aristides Aquino
What the Reds have here are two very talented players who lack an obvious place to play and are aging faster than their right-handed bats are maturing. Aquino was a sensation in 2019, slugging .576 with 19 home runs in 225 plate appearances, but he did most of that slugging in August. The league seemed to figure him out by September, when he hit just .196/.236/.382 with 34 strikeouts in 110 plate appearances. Last year, Aquino found himself blocked in the outfield corners and shuttled back and forth between the alternate training camp and the majors. He never got his bat going and is now heading into his age-27 season.
Senzel was the second-overall pick in the 2016 draft, but found himself blocked at third base by Eugenio Suárez, and is now blocked at second by Mike Moustakas. He moved to center in 2019 and struggled defensively. Last year, he seemed to have a better feel in the field, but for the fourth time in four “full” professional seasons, he struggled to stay healthy. Senzel’s list of maladies since 2017 now include vertigo, a torn tendon in his right index finger, surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow, a torn labrum in his right shoulder, a hyperextended left elbow, a sprained left ring finger, a pulled groin, and an “unspecified illness” in the middle of a pandemic. Senzel will turn 26 in June.
What can the Reds get out of these two this year? Will Senzel be the full-time centerfielder, or will he have to platoon with Shogo Akiyama? Will Aquino comprise even the short side of a platoon in left, or be sent back to Triple-A now that there is a Triple-A again? If given opportunities, will they hit? Will Senzel stay healthy? We won’t have all of those answers before Opening Day, but from the opportunities they are given in camp and the quality of their play, we can get a sense of the roles they might play to start the season. We’ll also get to find out if Senzel can avoid injury for even the month and a half prior to the season.
NRI That-Guy: 2B/OF Dee Strange-Gordon
First off, yes, Strange-Gordon. Though he played most of his career as Dee Gordon, Strange-Gordon has always been his legal last name, and he restored his mother’s last name to his official baseball moniker in September.
Strange-Gordon didn’t hit much in three years in Seattle—just .266/.293/.343 (77 OPS+)—but he’s a former two-time All-Star, has won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, and is the active leader in stolen bases with 333 (at a 77 percent success rate). He’s also a player who has some experience at shortstop, having come up at the position (though, as I mentioned above, he last played it regularly in 2013). He also has a big personality in a very little body, so while he won’t make the Reds better, he could make them more fun.
Sneak Peak: LHP Nick Lodolo?
As mentioned above, the Reds haven’t released their full list of non-roster invitees yet. The list we do have contains just 12 players, most of them with major-league experience. What’s missing is the category of players who would qualify here. Lodolo, the seventh-overall pick in the 2019 draft, is the Reds’ top prospect, a 6-foot-6 lefty out of Texas Christian University who is already 23 and seems likely to move quickly. I expect he will be among the team’s NRIs, but, as of publication, I can’t confirm that he will be.
St. Louis Cardinals
Location: Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, Jupiter, FL
New Duds: 3B Nolan Arenado
The list of the most significant players to change teams this offseason starts with either Arenado or new Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor. Whatever order you put them in, they are one and two. Of the two, Arenado has the more radical change in wardrobe, going from the Rockies’ black and purple to Cardinal red. Thus, Arenado is arguably the “New Duds” champion of the offeseason, the player everyone is most curious to see in his new uniform.
Big Change: Arenado
The Cardinals added just three players from outside the organization to their 40-man roster this winter: third-string catcher Ali Sánchez, minor-league journeyman righty Johan Quezada, and five-time All-Star Nolan Arenado. This was not a hard choice to make.
Arenado is a massive change. He is one of the best players in baseball, the rare player who combines a middle-of-the-order bat with elite play in the field. His presence supercharges the middle of the Cardinals’ lineup and restructures their defense, with Tommy Edman and Matt Carpenter scrambling for position now that third base is otherwise occupied and the elite glove in their infield shifting from second (the departed Kolten Wong) to third. Arenado also instantly becomes one of the faces of the franchise. If Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright represent the recent past, and Jack Flaherty represents the immediate future, Arenado represents the team’s present (particularly given the chances of him opting out of his contract come November).
Amazingly, this is the second time in three years that the Cardinals have added one of the league’s best players via trade, and Arenado will be younger this year than Paul Goldschmidt was when he arrived from the Diamondbacks in 2019.
Big Battle: Left field
Erdman should settle in at second base, replacing the departed Wong. Carpenter, who finished ninth in the NL MVP voting in 2018 but has an 89 OPS+ since and is now 35, may have to settle into a reserve role (his only significant experience in the outfield, in the majors or minors, was 13 starts as a rookie in 2012). That leaves left field open for Tyler O’Neill, who won a Gold Glove at the position last year. However, O’Neill also posted a 68 OPS+ last year, which largely undermined his value in the field. Could Lane Thomas threaten his job in camp? What about Justin Williams, who came over with Génesis Cabrera in the Tommy Pham trade? Williams hits left-handed; could he force a platoon? Will Carpenter attempt to insert himself into the competition to avoid a significant loss in playing time? Thomas and Williams are both a year younger than O’Neill and have plenty of tools of their own. It will be interesting to see just how interesting this gets.
Big Question: RHPJordan Hicks
When we last saw Jordan Hicks on a mound, it was June 2019. The young fireballer had ascended to the Cardinals’ closer job and was averaging, averaging, 101 miles per hour on his sinker, per Statcast, and reaching 104 mph with the pitch, per BrooksBaseball.net. Then came Tommy John surgery, the pandemic, and Hicks’ wise decision, as a person with diabetes, to opt out of last season. It has now been 20 months since we have seen Hicks throw a competitive pitch. Does he still have that elite heat? As a sophomore in 2019, he was improving upon both his strikeout and walk rates relative to his rookie year. Can he pick up where he left off, or will he be starting from scratch, relearning how to be an effective major-league pitcher? Will he slot right back into closing games, or will he have to climb back over Andrew Miller, Giovanny Gallegos, and others to reclaim the role?
While we’re on the subject of absurdly talented young right-handers and their post-Tommy John comebacks, we won’t learn as much about Elizabeth, New Jersey’s Alex Reyes this spring as we will about Hicks, but his health and control will be worth watching as he ramps up to the regular season. If Hicks is undiminished, and Reyes, who can also scrape triple-digits, can harness his still-elite stuff, the Cardinals’ bullpen could be dominant this season.
NRI That-Guy: OF Matt Szczur
The Cardinals tend to populate their list of non-roster invitees with in-house talent. Indeed, this spring, just five of their 28 non-roster invitees are new to the organization, and, of those five, just one, 30-year-old catcher Tyler Heineman, played in the major leagues last year (Heineman made 50 plate appearances for the Giants). The player on that list most familiar to Cardinals fans, however, is likely former Cubs outfielder Matt Szczur (whose awesome that-guy last name is pronounced SEE-zur, like the Roman general). Szczur—a 31-year-old from Cape May, New Jersey—hasn’t appeared in the major league since 2018, but he spent parts of four seasons with the Cubs and played 39 games against the Cardinals, hitting .250/.311/.464 with three home runs, including two off Jerome Williams on August 12, 2016, the only multi-homer game of his major-league career.
Sneak Peak: LHP Matthew Liberatore
The Cards’ top prospect is outfielder Dylan Carlson, but he’s already part of the major-league team, slated to start in right field this year, so we go down a spot, where we find third baseman Nolan Gorman and Liberatore in a virtual tie. The Cardinals already have a pretty good third baseman named Nolan, so let’s turn our attention to Liberatore, who was drafted 16th overall by the Rays in 2018 (three spots ahead of Gorman, both taken out of Arizona high schools) then shipped to the Cardinals last January in the deal that sent outfielders José Martínez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay.
The scouting reports I’ve read on the 6-foot-4 Liberatore are a bit discordant. The Baseball Prospectus annual raves about his curveball and suggests front-of-the-rotation potential. Baseball America agrees on the potential but doesn’t make excessive mention of the curve. Meanwhile, in writing up the Cardinals’ top 10 prospects on their website, BP was much more lukewarm about Liberatore as a whole. That speaks to how far away he is from his potential. Again, he was drafted out of high school and, due to the pandemic, has yet to have a full professional season. That will change this year, and Cardinals fans (and prospect watchers) will get a sneak peak this spring.
Milwaukee Brewers
Location: American Family Fields, Phoenix, AZ
New Duds: 2B Kolten Wong
Wong isn’t just the only regular the Brewers added this offseason, he’s a player the Brewers took from an intra-division rival. As a Cardinal over the last eight years, Wong played nearly a full season worth of games against the Brewers (111 games, 410 plate appearances) and hit .282/.354/.427 with 16 stolen bases and four triples. He arrives in Milwaukee having won the last two NL Gold Gloves at second base and looking both for a third and to prove to Cardinals that they never should have declined his $12.5 million option for this season.
Big Change: Ryan Braun is gone
Only Hall of Famers and franchise icons Robin Yount and Paul Molitor have compiled more wins above replacement as a Brewer than Ryan Braun’s 46.9 (per Baseball-Reference). In his 14 years in Milwaukee, Braun won the Rookie of the Year, the 2011 NL MVP award, and five Silver Sluggers, made six All-Star teams, hit 352 home runs, stole 216 bases, and hit .330/.368/.491 across five posteasons (as a franchise, the Brewers have only made the playoffs seven times). Yes, things soured when he badly mishandled performance-enhancing-drug revelations in 2013, but he stuck around for another seven years and three postseasons and never had a below-average season at the plate. Technically Braun, whose $15 million option was declined in November, is still a free agent. However, just last week, Braun told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that he is “not currently interested in playing.” With Braun gone, the longest-tenured Brewers are Orlando Arcia and Brent Suter, both of whom debuted in August 2016, the oldest is Lorenzo Cain (35 in August), and the face of the team is now, indisputably, Christian Yelich.
Big Battle: Catcher, Third Base
In the last game the Brewers played, Game Two of the Wild Card Series against the Dodgers, their catcher and third baseman were Jacob Nottingham and Luis Urías, respectively, but both were the right-handed portion of a platoon. Lefties Omar Narváez and Eric Sogard started against a righty in Game One. All but Sogard are still on the team, but Manny Piña is back from a torn meniscus and could reclaim the right-handed share of the catching from Nottingham. Then again, Nottingham is eight years younger than Piña, has a more powerful bat, and may be a player the Brewers would prefer to establish in the majors. Narváez, meanwhile, had a brutal year at the plate last year, so maybe the team would rather just let Piña and Nottingham share the job. Some combination of those three will be behind the plate to start the season, but in exactly what measure could be determined this spring.
Similarly, Luis Urías was the key player the Brewers got in the November 2019 trade that sent centerfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to the Padres, but Urías also had a lousy 2020, and the Brewers have stocked up on hot-corner alternatives this winter. Utility men Daniel Robertson and Tim Lopes, both 27 and on the 40-man roster, are capable of playing the position, as is incumbent reserve infielder Mark Mathias, and, while I was typing this, the Brewers brought back Travis Shaw on a non-roster deal, which put a platoon in play, as Shaw is a lefty and the rest are right-handed. Urías has the inside track, but the Brewers have options if the 24-year-old doesn’t look ready.
Big Question: Who will get the upper hand at first base?
Signing Wong pushed Keston Hiura to first base. Losing the designated hitter (which, absurdly, still hasn’t been officially announced though reporting continues to confirm it) has done the same to Dan Vogelbach. Hiura’s a righty, and Vogelbach is a lefty, so they make a natural platoon. However, Hiura is a homegrown prospect who is four years younger than Vogelbach and, though he was a lousy fielder at second, Hiura is more athletic and should ultimately be better at his new position. So, the Brewers might prefer not to have Hiura limited to the short side of a platoon. However, Hiura didn’t hit much last year, and he led the NL in strikeouts, punching out in nearly 35 percent of his plate appearances, up from his already worrisome rookie-year rate. Meanwhile, Vogelbach, the big meaty slugger, slugged just .391. Both will have to step up this spring to prove worthy of the bulk of the playing time at their shared position.
NRI That-Guy: 3B/1B Travis Shaw
Shaw hit .258/.347/.497 with 63 home runs for the Brewers over the 2017 and ’18 seasons, but his bat went ice cold in 2019, and the Brewers non-tendered him that December. He caught on with the Blue Jays last year and was closer to league average at the plate but was non-tendered again. Now, he’s back with the Brewers on a minor-league deal that, according to Mark Feinsand, will pay him between $1.5 million and $3 million if he makes the roster and gets significant playing time on one or both of the infield corners. The deal also allows Shaw to opt out on March 15 if he hasn’t been added to the roster by then.
Sneak Peak: SS Brice Turang or CF Garrett Mitchell
Like the Reds, the Brewers have not announced the bulk of their NRIs, but one or both of these two could well be among them. Turang and Mitchell are the only Brewers prospects to have made a top-100 prospects list this winter. Turang was the team’s first round pick (21st overall out of a Los Angeles-area high school) in 2018. Mitchell, who, at 22, is a year older, was their top pick (20th overall out of UCLA) in 2020. If Mitchell is in camp, it will be his first professional exposure. Turang, the son of former Mariners outfielder Brian Turang, reached High-A as a teenager in 2019. Both are compelling athletes, but both are far from finished products.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Location: LECOM Park, Bradenton, FL
New Duds: LHP Tyler Anderson
There is absolutely no reason to be excited about seeing Tyler Anderson in a Pirates uniform, but I took the time to Photoshop him into one, anyway. Anderson is by far the most experienced major-leaguer the Pirates have added to their 40-man roster this offseason, and perhaps the only one Pirates fans might recognize as a player they’ve seen before. Even that might be a stretch, though, because Anderson has never pitched against the Pirates. He did start playoff game for the Rockies in the 2018 Division Series and pitched well (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K, though Colorado lost the game and the series). So, he had that little bit of national exposure, which is more than he’s likely to have in Pittsburgh.
Big Change: Stripped bare
Just when you thought the team was stripped to the studs, the Pirates stripped out the studs, sending Josh Bell to Washington and Joe Musgrove to San Diego. Then, just to make sure no one was having any fun, they dropped Trevor Williams from the roster and let him sign with the Cubs. The highest-paid player on the team is now first baseman Colin Moran, who will make $2.8 million this year, and (though this was already true before those moves) the only financial commitment they have for 2022 is the $3 million they are going to spend to buy out Gregory Polanco’s option and let him leave town, as well.
Big Battle: Centerfield
On Tuesday, manager Derek Shelton said that switch-hitter Cole Tucker will get the majority of his playing time at shortstop this year. That could come as the strong side of a platoon with Erik González or Kevin Newman, both right-handed hitters, but what’s most clear from that piece of news is that centerfield will be available for the taking. The job will be former Blue Jays prospect Anthony Alford’s to lose in camp, but lefty-hitting non-roster invitee Brian Goodwin will be looking to take away strong-side platoon at-bats, and fellow righty Jared Oliva, who is a year younger than the 26-year-old Alford, will apply pressure from within the 40-man roster.
Big Question: SS Oneil Cruz
Six-foot-seven shortstop Oneil Cruz is one of the Pirates’ top prospects, and he will be in camp as a member of the 40-man roster. However, in the Dominican Republic last September, the SUV Cruz was driving hit the back of a motorcycle carrying three people, all of whom died in the accident. Cruz was arrested and released on $34,000 bail, and he remains in legal jeopardy, to say nothing of the psychological impact of the accident on a young man who wasn’t yet 22 when it happened. I’m not going to weigh in on the facts and assignment of fault in the accident, as those are subject to dispute. For our purposes here, it’s sufficient to be aware that one of the Pirates’ top prospects is dealing with the aftermath of a traumatic event and facing potential imprisonment in his home country, which could have implications for his immigration status. His status doesn’t seem likely to change before Opening Day, and he’s not likely to make the Opening Day roster, even if he can play through his current situation, but every Pirates fan should be aware of Cruz’s situation.
NRI That-Guy: C Tony Wolters
The Pirates have a good handful of that-guys among their non-roster invitees. So, since I already mentioned Brian Goodwin above as a candidate to steal some playing time in centerfield, let’s go with Wolters here. After all, not many players have a game-winning hit in a Wild Card Game to their credit, which Wolters does. In his five years with the Rockies, Wolters posted a miserable 61 OPS+, but he was good enough behind the plate to be above replacement level on the aggregate. He will challenge fellow left-handed-hitting catcher Michael Perez for the backup catching job in camp, though Perez has the advantage of already being on the roster.
Sneak Peak: 2B Nick Gonzales
Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is the Pirates’ top prospect, and a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, but he’s already installed at third base for the major-league club. For a sneak peak, look for the team’s top pick from last year’s draft, shortstop Nick Gonzales (consensus rank: 57). Drafted seventh overall out of New Mexico State University, the 5-foot-10 Gonzales has drawn comparisons to Alex Bregman in terms of pure hitting ability and competitive fire, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Transaction Reactions
Red Sox sign RHP Hirokazu Sawamura (TBA/2yrs + dual option)
Sawamura is a 33-year-old Japanese righty reliever whose control abandoned him to such a degree last year that the Yomiuri Giants traded him, after nine-plus seasons, to the Chiba Lotte Marines. He was better with the Marines, but the walk rate was still a bit high. Sawamura throws in the mid-90s, but, per Baseball Prospectus, his splitter is the pitch to watch. My expectations are not high.
Phillies to sign UT Brad Miller (~$3M/1yr)
It’s ironic that the first team to give the defensively challenged ex-shortstop Miller the bulk of his playing time at designated hitter was in the National League. Last year’s Cardinals mostly just let Miller hit, and he did, to the tune of a 120 OPS+ (.232/.357/.451). Over the last two years, which includes his previous stint with the Phillies, he has hit .247/.343/.510 with 20 home runs in 341 plate appearances. Miller could always hit, and he knows how to wear his socks, but despite his supposed versatility, he has been significantly below average at every position except left field. Sadly, he’s on his way back to a non-DH version of the NL via this still-pending return to Philadelphia.
Brewers re-sign LHP Brett Anderson ($2.5M/1yr)
In 2019, Anderson reached 30 starts and qualified for the ERA title for just the third time in his then-11 seasons. With just 60 games to get through in 2020, could he have another healthy season? Nope. Anderson opened and closed the season with a blister issue on his left index finger, and, in early September, was scratched from a start with a tight right hip. He’s a league-average lefty when he’s healthy, but those three seasons (2009, 2015, and 2019) are the only ones in which he has reached even 20 starts. For $2.5 million, he’s just depth for the Brewers, who already had Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter, Josh Lindblom, and Adrian Houser in the rotation with lefty Eric Lauer trying to break in.
Pirates sign LHP Tyler Anderson ($2.5M/1yr)
Anderson was superficially respectable for the Giants last year, but behind his roughly league-average run-prevention (98 ERA+) was some awful pitching. Anderson struck out just 6.2 men per nine innings while walking 3.8 for a 1.64 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.39 WHIP. He also induced ground balls at close to half the league-average rate. So the Giants had a pitcher with bad control who struck out almost no one and gave up a ton of fly balls. That league-average thing was a fluke; deserved run average tells us he deserved to allow 6.36 runs per nine innings. As picked over as the Pirates’ rotation may be, Anderson should have to fight to earn a spot this spring. If he does, he’ll have to make some serious improvements to keep it.
Rangers acquire RHP Josh Sborz from the Diamondbacks for minor league RHP Jhan Zambrano
Sborz, a typical mid-90s sinker/slider righty reliever, was designated for assignment by L.A. to make room for Trevor Bauer. Now, he floats over to Texas to see if he can grow some moss in the Rangers’ bullpen. The Dodgers get Venezuelan teenager Zambrano, who has yet to pitch in the States, in return.
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Closing Credits
This issue required a quick turnaround due to Presidents’ Day bumping our usual Monday issue to Tuesday. So, I had to streamline it a bit (though I cut no corners on the content that is included, I assure you). There’s a reason The Cycle normally comes out every other day during the week: it takes me more than one day to write these things!
That quick turnaround put me in mind of a song that, both lyrically and musically, captures the mad rush we sometimes get sucked into as we try to keep up with our daily obligations. It’s the final song on Reggatta de Blanc, the unfortunately titled second album by the Police: “No Time This Time.”
The Police are one of my all-time favorite bands, and have been since I was an MTV-obsessed kid watching the three of them clown around in the videos for hits like “Don’t Stand So Close To Me” and “Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic.” Their occasional appropriation of reggae rhythms (which is what that album title, a faux-French translation of “White Reggae,” is celebrating) has little to nothing to do with my love for the band. (Ironically, another one of my all-time favorite bands, the Clash, both criticized that appropriation and made even greater—though, they would claim, not incorrectly, more authentic—use of reggae and dub sounds in their music. Adding to that irony is that those reggae sounds aren’t what I like about the Clash, either. With the exception of certain slices of perfection, such as “(White Man) In Hammersmith Palais,” I like the Clash despite their affinity for Jamaican music.)
What I like about the Police is Sting’s songwriting and vocal delivery (I always thought he sounded Austrian as a kid), the brilliant syncopation of Stewart Copeland’s drumming, and Andy Summers’ unique and evocative guitar textures. I’m also drawn to the band’s combination of intellectualism and humor and the constant tension between Sting’s pomposity and Copeland’s palpable desire to deflate it.
The Police made just five albums before that tension tore them apart, and Reggatta de Blanc is easily the weakest of the bunch. It very much suffers from second-album syndrome, with the band having put many of its best pre-contract songs on its debut and needing to pad out the follow-up, released less than 12 months later, with instrumentals and songs written by the drummer. Stewart Copeland is one of my all-time favorite drummers, but he wasn’t much of a songwriter, particularly compared to the bass player. “No Time At All” has the punk energy that Copeland brought to some of the band’s earliest work (including his own compositions “Fall Out” and “Nothing Achieving”), but it’s a Sting tune, so it adds to that urgency a soaring melody and a clever, wordy lyric.
Opening with a great, textured snare roll by Copeland, the song takes off like a shot with a rapid tempo and the guitar and bass picking out hurried eighth notes, almost stumbling over themselves to keep up with Copeland. Sting’s voice enters bathed in a phasing effect conveying a sort of delirium amid the frantic instrumentation. The tension builds during the prechorus, Copeland’s cymbal hits making vocal sound punchy, then releases into the shouted chorus: “No time at all! No time this time!”
The song is unrelenting for its three minutes and 20 seconds, only pausing as a tease amid the descending harmonies of the outro then relaunching with a flurry of a fill from Copeland. It’s no wonder I always seem to listen to all five Police albums every time I listen to one. When you end an album with a shot of adrenaline like this, you can’t help but want another hit.
In the meantime, that prechorus says it all for your very tired, but very grateful, host:
If I could I’d slow the whole world down
I’d bring it to its knees, I’d stop it spinning ‘round
But as it is I’m climbing up an endless wall
Not time at all! No time this time!
The Cycle will return on Friday with Spring Training Previews for the AL East teams and (if time allows) some of the items I had hoped to include in this issue.
In the meantime, please help spread the word!