The Cycle, Spoke #6: What to Watch, Week 2
Some highlights from Week 1 and a viewer's guide to Week 2 of the 2023 MLB season
After opening up the season by watching five well-pitched games, I ran into more blow-out games than I would have liked over the weekend. I watched Spencer Turnbull get lit up on Saturday in his first start since June 2021, and Chris Bassitt get lit up by the Cardinals on Sunday, performances that resulted in the two worst game scores on the season to this point (13 for Turnbull, 4 for Bassitt). On Monday, I took passing looks at Tommy Hunter and Michael Kopech turning close games into blowouts, tuning in just in time to see the latter allow four home run in one inning, before attending the Yankees’ 8–1 laugher against the Phillies that night with my wife and daughter (though we did enjoy our trip to the ballpark). Tuesday afternoon’s Diamondbacks–Padres game wasn’t lop-sided, but it was high-scoring (8–6 after Padres reliever Luis García gave up four in the top of the eighth to take the loss). Fortunately, Wednesday’s Aaron Nola–Gerrit Cole matchup lived up to its billing, with both starters working into the seventh in a game the Yankees won 4–2. I’ve now seen 15 of the 30 teams play full games this season, but it will take more effort to get the other 15 in as the season advances and I struggle to find compelling reasons to watch the Nats, A’s, Royals, etc.
Meanwhile, the Rays extended their season-opening winning streak with a 7–2 win over the Nationals on Wednesday, and remain the only team without both a win and a loss, going 6–0 thus far. Of course, it helps that they have played the Tigers and Nats, and they now head back home to face the 2–4 A’s this weekend.
It is, of course, too early to make any meaningful observations about any team or player, but I can highlight some of the best individual game performances to this point. So here are those:
Best Individual Game Performances of the First Week
Top Game Score:
85: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, Tuesday, April 4, vs. Twins
9 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 100 pitches, CG, SHO, W
Alcantara walked four in 5 2/3 innings on Opening Day, but his second start, on Tuesday, was the first (and still only) complete game of the season. Alcantara bested Kenta Maeda’s strong return from UCL internal-brace surgery (5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K), in a game the Marlins won 1–0 on a second-inning solo homer by Avisaíl García off Maeda.
83: Jeffrey Springs, Rays, Sunday, April 2, vs. Tigers
6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K, 81 pitches, W
Springs, who signed an extension with the Rays in late January, allowed only a two-out walk in the second inning in his season debut while tying Logan Webb’s Opening Day start in the Bronx for most strikeouts in a game thus far this season.
Most Total Bases:
13: Adam Duvall, Red Sox, Saturday, April 1, vs. Orioles
4-for-5, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Duvall’s second home run in this game ended the wildest comeback of the season thus far. The Orioles led this game 3–0, 7–1, and 8–5, but the Red Sox clawed back to make it 8–7 O’s heading into the bottom of the ninth. Closer Félix Bautista got the first two outs in the bottom of the ninth, then got Masataka Yoshida to fly out to left fielder Ryan McKenna, but McKenna one-handed the ball, and it hit off the heel of his glove and dropped for an error. That brought Duvall to the plate, and, two pitches later, he delivered a walk-off home run over the Green Monster, but only barely, so everyone had to wait for the replay to confirm the Red Sox win.
12: Trayce Thompson, Dodgers, Saturday, April 1, vs. Diamondbacks
3-for-4, 3 HR, 8 RBI, K
Thompson’s performance drew more headlines than Duvall’s on Saturday as he hit three home runs off three Diamondbacks pitchers in a 10–1 Dodgers win. His three homers and eight RBI remain the most of either in a single game this season.
I often mention that hitting for the cycle is 10 total bases neatly arranged but far from the best game a hitter can have. There hasn’t been a cycle in the majors yet this season, but the two performances above were better than a cycle, as were these:
C.J. Cron going 4-for-5 with a single, a double, and two homers (11 TB)
Joey Gallo going 3-for-4 with a double, two homers and a walk (10 TB plus a walk)
Austin Hayes going 5-for-5 with two singles, two doubles, a homer, and a stolen base (10 TB, plus an extra base taken, and five times on base)
Also worth noting: Aldey Rutschman reached base six times in six trips on Opening Day, going 5-for-5 with a walk and a home run.
With that, let’s get on to what to watch over the next week . . .
This Weekend
Series to Watch
Cardinals @ Brewers: The National League Central should be a two-team race, if the Brewers can make it one, and these are the two teams. The Brewers’ chances of making this a race have increased in the early going, as they are 5–1 to the Cardinals’ 2–4. Having just swept the Mets, Milwaukee brings a five-game winning streak into this three-game (Friday through Sunday) set and has averaged 8.75 runs per game over its last four contests. The Cardinals, meanwhile, just got swept at home by Atlanta, and manager Oliver Marmol has publicly accused center fielder Tyler O’Neill of a lack of effort for an awkward play at the plate on Tuesday, benching O’Neill on Wednesday. A strong showing in this series could put Milwaukee in the driver’s seat in the division in the early going, and the Brewers seem to have the advantage in the pitching matchups, particularly with Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta starting the bookend games.
Padres @ Braves: This is a four-game matchup of potential pennant contenders, as the Padres and Braves were my picks to win the two strongest divisions in the National League coming into the season. The Braves are off to a hot start at 5–1 coming off their sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis. The Padres are just 3–3 having split series with the Rockies (four games) and Diamondbacks (two) thus far, all of those games coming in San Diego. The Padres’ schedule doesn’t let up any time soon, as they follow this series with sets against the Mets, Brewers, then Braves and Diamondbacks again, so this stretch will be an early test for a team with high expectations that is off to a middling start.
Note: With Max Fried (hamstring) on the injured list, Jared Shuster back in Triple-A, Bryce Elder already deployed on Wednesday, and Ian Anderson (elbow) on the IL in Triple-A, the Braves will either have to go deep on their rotation depth chart or throw a bullpen game on Friday.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks: I wrote last week that we’d know more about the Diamondbacks than any other team at this point in the season because the hopeful contenders were opening up against the top two teams in their division. Well, the D’backs split four in L.A., then split two in San Diego, so, if we’ve learned anything, it’s that this upstart Arizona team can hang with the big boys. We’ve also learned that Arizona is going to be a lot of fun to watch, as the D’backs are tied for third in the majors with nine stolen bases in 10 attempts through six games. Five of those steals came against the Padres on Tuesday, a game in which Arizona scored the tying run in its eighth-inning comeback on a squeeze bunt. The Snakes now rematch with the Dodgers for four games starting with their home opener tonight.
Mariners @ Guardians: This matchup of two expected contenders has increased in interest because of what happened when these two teams met last week: the Guardians took three of four. The Mariners then dropped two of three to the Angels, going 2–5 in their opening homestand (fortunately, for them, the Astros have also scuffled and are just a game ahead in the early going). This three-game set opens on Friday with the Guardians’ home opener and the Mariners looking for revenge.
Thursday, April 16
Ominous weather forecasts have already prompted four teams (the Mets, Orioles, Phillies, and Twins) to postpone their scheduled Thursday home openers, eliminating 40 percent of an already shortened schedule and leaving just five games. The early game is a rubbernecker’s delight, as Chris Sale and Spencer Turnbull, both looking to stage comebacks from seasons lost to injury, are now looking to also come back from dismal season debuts that left them with ERAs over 20.00. They face off in the Tigers’ home opener at 1:10 pm ET. The Rockies play their home opener against the Nationals at 4:10 pm ET, but the real games to watch are the last two on the schedule, and ambitious fans have an outside chance of squeezing both in:
Blake Snell vs. Spencer Strider, Padres @ Braves, 7:20 pm ET, MLBN1
Snell wasn’t sharp in his season debut, but he did strikeout nine against just one walk in 4 1/3 innings, he kept the ball in the park, and two of the three runs he allowed were runners he bequeathed to the bullpen. Strider, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, was sharp, also striking out nine but in six scoreless frames while allowing just six baserunners. Strider faced the Padres twice early last year, but this will be his first start against San Diego.
Dustin May vs. Merrill Kelly, Dodgers @ Diamondbacks, 10:10 pm ET
This is a rematch of the second game of the season for both teams. In that contest, May threw seven scoreless innings, the deepest he has ever pitched in a major-league game, while throwing just 84 pitches. Kelly didn’t allow a run, either, but didn’t make it out of the fourth inning, walking four in his short outing and needing the bullpen to strand two of his runners. Both starters are working on five day’s rest.
Friday, April 7
Friday brings home openers for the Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Guardians, Twins, Pirates, Giants, and Angels.
Meanwhile, despite his awful showing and reported arm fatigue in his season debut, Madison Bumgarner has passed all of the Diamondbacks’ medical tests and appears set to re-match with Clayton Kershaw on Friday night. So that game at least has some name appeal, but the more compelling matchup is this one:
Jack Flaherty vs. Brandon Woodruff, Cardinals @ Brewers, 8:10 pm ET
Woodruff was typically excellent in his season debut, striking out eight against one walk and three hits over six innings, with only an Ian Happ solo homer in the run column. Jack Flaherty, who is attempting a comeback season of his own, didn’t allow a hit or a run through five innings in his debut, but he walked seven and hit a batter. That was a weird outing, and it will be very interesting to see which aspect of it repeats on Friday, his lack of sharpness, or his ability to work out of the many jams he pitched his way into.
Saturday, April 8
Saturday brings anticipated second starts from Kodai Senga and Noah Syndergaard (both of whom were sharp in their season debuts) and from Shintaro Fujimanmi and José Berríos (both of whom were awful). But the most compelling pitching matchup, to me, is this one:
Luis Garcia vs. Joe Ryan, Astros @ Twins, 2:10 pm ET
This Astros–Twins series just missed making my Series to Watch list, but I’ll carve out a space for this matchup. These two are not aces, but they’re both compelling 26-year-old righties who have emerged as stalwarts in deep rotations. Ryan was sharp in his season debut against the Royals, allowing only one run on a solo home run in six innings while striking out six against two walks. Garcia was less so, but pitched out of some jams, pitched into the sixth, and also faced a tougher opponent in the White Sox.
Sunday, April 9
Padres @ Braves, Seth Lugo @ Dylan Dodd, 7:10 pm ET, ESPN
When in doubt, go with the ESPN game on a Sunday night. Lugo and Dodd were both excellent in their season debuts (which, in Dodd’s case, was his major-league debut). Lugo, returning to starting after two years of pure relief for the Mets, struck out seven Rockies in seven innings, allowing just one run on a Ryan McMahon solo homer, walking no one, and throwing just 93 pitches. The 24-year-old Dodd, the Braves’ third-round pick in 2021, went just five innings but also allowed just one run and walked no one against the tougher Cardinals lineup. The Braves know Lugo well from his time with the Mets. The Padres have never seen Dodd before.
Next Week
Series to Watch
White Sox @ Twins: A compelling matchup of expected AL Central contenders.
Yankees @ Guardians: A matchup of last year’s AL East and Central champions and a re-match of last year’s Division Series, which the Yankees won in five games.
Padres @ Mets: A matchup of the NL’s two big spenders, both off to middling starts thus far.
Brewers @ Diamondbacks: A matchup of teams that could be jockeying for position with one another in the wild-card race later this season.
Dodgers @ Giants: I don’t think this year’s Giants are a good team, but I had to flag the first classic-rivalry series of the season.
Pitchers in italics below have not been officially announced as the starters for those games.
Monday, April 10
None of the pitchers below have been announced yet, but in projecting the rotations forward, Monday seems likely to offer Dylan Cease vs. Kenta Maeda in Minneapolis at 2:10 pm ET and Julio Urías vs. Logan Webb in San Francisco at 9:45 pm ET. The must-watch game, in my book, really for the entire week, is this one:
Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber, Yankees @ Guardians, 6:10 pm ET
This is a potential Game 1 playoff matchup, with two perennial Cy Young contenders toeing the rubber. Cole has been dominant thus far, striking out 19 in 12 1/3 innings with the only run charged to him coming after he left his second start. Bieber threw six scoreless in his first start of the season, then struck out seven in a quality start in his next turn, but, incredibly, those two games are the Guardians’ only two losses on the season as of this writing (Bieber got a no-decision in both). Things don’t get easier for Bieber in this game, but he should be up to the challenge.
Tuesday, April 11
Shohei Ohtani and Jacob deGrom will be on-turn on Tuesday, and I think there’s a great deal of potential in the likely Jesús Luzardo vs. Aaron Nola matchup in Philadelphia at 6:40 pm ET, but when you factor in the teams they’re playing for, the game of the day is likely to be this one:
Lance Lynn vs. Pablo López, White Sox @ Twins, 7:40 pm ET
López has been tremendous in his first two starts for Minnesota, allowing just one run in 12 1/3 innings while striking out 16 against four walks. He needed just 88 pitches to get through seven innings against the Marlins in his last outing but took a no-decision in a Twins loss after Luzardo matched him inning-for-inning (I told you that was going to be a good one). Lynn’s second start of the season is today against the Giants, but I remain optimistic about his ability to build on his strong finish to last season and to put up a good showing in this matchup of AL Central rivals.
Wednesday, April 12
I have to be honest, of the projected matchups for Wednesday, nothing really piques my interest. Lucas Giolito vs. Sonny Gray in Minneapolis at 1:10 pm ET could be worthwhile if you’re up for another White Sox–Twins game after Lynn vs. López on Tuesday. Logan Gilbert vs. Marcus Stroman in Chicago at 2:20 pm ET could also be good, and Clayton Kershaw should face Alex Cobb in the nightcap in San Francisco at 9:45 pm ET. However, in every case we’re talking about the third start of a pitcher who won’t make his second start of the season until tomorrow (Friday), so I’m hesitant to recommend any one over the other. Before making your choice from among those three, check to see how those six starters did this Friday, and if Wednesday’s game is a rubber game for any those series (particularly White Sox–Twins).
Enjoy! See you next Thursday.
MLB Network’s national broadcasts are subject to local blackouts and regional alternates, so I can’t guarantee that this game will air in your market.