The Cycle Issue 27: Season’s Previews III
Eastern Division previews, sticky stuff ban & strikeout rates, Eloy Jiménez, the McCullers extension, roster decisions, highlights, weekend sched. & much more!
This is a free issue of The Cycle. Free issues will happen on occasion, but they won’t be regular, and they won’t be frequent. To read every issue of The Cycle, which publishes three days a week and contains all the news and analysis you need to keep up with the 2021 Major League Baseball season, upgrade to a paid subscription here:
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
I complete my team-by-team previews with the American and National League East, as we are now less than a week from Opening Day!
Also:
Exhibitionism: Wednesday and Thursday’s action
On Deck: The weekend’s schedule
Newswire: The sticky stuff ban and its impact on strikeouts; Dr. Bobby Brown (1924-2021)
Aches and Pains: Eloy Jiménez lost for the year? Other key injuries that will impact the season
Roster Decisions: Teams getting down to final decisions
Transaction Reactions: Astros extend McCullers, Gio González retires
Feedback
Closing Credits
Before we get started today, I have a favor to ask. To help grow The Cycle’s readership and keep it viable as we get into the regular season, I’m asking everyone who receives this newsletter via email (that’s paid subscribers and those on the free list who are getting today’s free issue), please think of one person you know who does not receive The Cycle, but who you think might enjoy it, and forward this issue to them.
This is not a chain-letter situation. People receiving this issue from a subscriber need not forward it further, but if everyone reading this can simply forward this free issue to one other person, it will double its reach. For those who receive it, or who are on the free email list but not yet paid subscribers, I will be offering a 10 percent Opening Day discount for new subscribers next week. So, if you enjoy this issue, you can use that discount (which will be posted at cyclenewsletter.substack.com over the weekend) to subscribe and read Monday’s issue and beyond. Thanks!
Of course, if you want to simplify the process, you can just give your potential Cycle reader a gift subscription:
Season’s Previews
These season previews were a heavy but rewarding lift, and their conclusion today is yet another sign that Opening Day is right around the corner. If you missed them, I broke down the AL West and Central on Monday and the NL West and Central on Wednesday. Today, we finish up with the eastern divisions.
If you want the full preamble, check out Monday’s issue. The key things to remember are: The park factors are from The Bill James Handbook. Deserved winning percentage is from Robert Au of Baseball Prospectus. It starts by calculating how many runs a team should have scored and allowed (after correcting for every outside factor under, and including, the sun) then figures out an expected record from there using the more familiar Pythagorean method. Rosters are not intended to represent Opening Day rosters but more of a general snapshot of the roster each team is taking into the season, so you will see some currently injured or delayed players listed as active. In general, I’m pretty confident about roughly 22 of the 26 players listed for each team. The last few spots are close to pure guesses. Batting orders are based in large part on what we have seen managers run out during Spring Training. There are no predictions in these previews. Most likely I’ll have some next week.
Also, for the NL East, note that the National League teams are losing the designated hitter. Thus, in the “who is replacing whom” section, a significant number of plate appearances are being returned to pitchers, which looks bad on paper, but its a downgrade that affects all 15 NL teams.
American League East
Tampa Bay Rays
2020 Record: 40–20, .667
2020 Deserved WPct: .531
Manager: Kevin Cash
Front Office: Matthew Silverman (president), Erik Neander (senior VP, baseball operations/GM)
Home Ballpark: Tropicana Field
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 95, RH Avg: 95
LH HR: 95, RH HR: 86
Who is replacing whom:
Randy Arozarena will consume Hunter Renfroe’s playing time
Francisco Mejía is replacing Michael Perez
Michael Wacha is replacing Blake Snell
Rich Hill is replacing Charlie Morton
Chris Archer is replacing John Curtiss and Yonny Chirinos
Collin McHugh is replacing Aaron Slegers
Chaz Roe will consume most of Nick Anderson’s innings
Ryan Sherriff and Cody Reed will consume Aaron Loup’s innings
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – Manuel Margot (RF)
L – Austin Meadows (DH)
R – Randy Arozarena (LF)
L – Brandon Lowe (2B)
L – Ji-Man Choi (1B)
R – Willy Adames (SS)
L – Joey Wendle (3B)
L – Kevin Kiermaier (CF)
R – Mike Zunino (C)
Bench:
R – Yandy Díaz (IF)
R – Mike Brosseau (UT)
L – Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (1B/3B/OF)
S – Francisco Mejía (C)
Rotation:
Tyler Glasnow (R)
Ryan Yarbrough (R)
Michael Wacha (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Chris Archer (R)
Bullpen:
Peter Fairbanks (R)
Diego Castillo (R)
Chaz Roe (R)
Josh Fleming (L)
Ryan Thompson (R)
Cody Reed (L)
Ryan Sherriff (L)
Collin McHugh (R)
Injured list:
OF – Brett Phillips (left hamstring, should return in April)
RHP – Oliver Drake (right flexor tendon strain, will miss first two months)
RHP – Nick Anderson (partially torn tendon in pitching arm, will miss first half)
LHP – Colin Poche (Tommy John surgery, out for the year)
RHP – Yonny Chirinos (Tommy John surgery, out for the year)
LHP – Jalen Beeks (Tommy John surgery, out for the year)
Notes on the roster: Ji-Man Choi could open the year on the injured list due to a knee problem. He, Cody Reed, and Brett Phillips are out of options.
My take: The Rays won at a 108-win pace last year on their way to the second pennant in franchise history, but their Pythagorean record, based on runs scored and allowed, had them as more of a 97-win team (that is, very good but not historically so). Deserved winning percentage docked them another 11 wins, portraying their true performance level as that of an 86-win team. The deserved stats thought the Rays’ run prevention was legit, but it wasn’t buying them as an above-average offense, which makes it particularly worrisome that the Rays have clearly downgraded on the pitching side of things this winter.
There’s just not a positive spin to put on replacing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton with Michael Wacha and what little appears to be left of the 41-year-old Rich Hill. If the latter seemed like he fit the Rays’ well because of their reliance on and creativity with their bullpen, that was undermined this week when Tampa Bay’s most dominant reliever, Nick Anderson, was lost for at least half the season with a torn ligament in his pitching arm.
The Rays are a good team. They won 96 games two years ago and 90 the year before that. I’m excited to see what Randy Arozarena can do over a full season, and they have the top prospect in all of baseball, Wander Franco, banging on the door along with a host of talented young starting pitchers who could upgrade the rotation mid-season. Still, I think it’s a given that the Rays won’t repeat what they did last year, and the replacement parts in that rotation, and the potential strain that could place on the bullpen, worry me quite a bit.
New York Yankees
2020 Record: 33–27, .550
2020 Deserved WPct: .597
Manager: Aaron Boone
Front Office: Brian Cashman (senior VP, GM)
Home Ballpark: Yankee Stadium
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 103, RH Avg: 100
LH HR: 108, RH HR: 106
Who is replacing whom:
The Yankees hope Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can reclaim playing time from Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, and Mike Ford, and that Gleyber Torres can reclaim some from Tyler Wade
Corey Kluber is replacing Masahiro Tanaka
Jameson Taillon is replacing J.A. Happ
Domingo Germán is replacing James Paxton and, at least for now, Deivi Garcia
Darren O’Day is replacing Adam Ottavino
Justin Wilson is replacing Jonathan Holder
Aroldis Chapman is reclaiming some innings from Luis Avilán
Tyler Lyons, or someone like him, is replacing Zack Britton for the first half of the season
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – DJ Lemahieu (2B)
R – Aaron Judge (RF)
S – Aaron Hicks (CF)
R – Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
R – Luke Voit (1B)
R – Gleyber Torres (SS)
R – Gio Urshela (3B)
R – Gary Sánchez (C)
R – Clint Frazier (LF)
Bench:
L – Brett Gardner (OF)
L – Mike Tauchman (OF)
L – Wade Taylor (IF)
R – Kyle Higashioka (C)
Rotation:
Gerrit Cole (R)
Corey Kluber (R)
Jameson Taillon (R)
Jordan Montgomery (L)
Domingo Germán (R)
Bullpen:
Aroldis Chapman (R)
Chad Green (R)
Darren O’Day (R)
Justin Wilson (L)
Jonathan Loaisiga (R)
Luis Cessa (R)
Nick Nelson (R)
Tyler Lyons (L)
Injured list:
RHP – Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery, could return mid-year)
LHP – Zack Britton (bone chip removed from elbow, out three to four months)
Notes on the roster: Luis Cessa, Kyle Higashioka, Mike Tauchman, and Gary Sánchez are among the players out of options. Tyler Lyons is a non-roster invitee, but his chances of making the roster increased when Justin Wilson left Tuesday’s game with an apparent injury. So far the news on Wilson has been encouraging, but the Yankees have not released an official diagnosis of his arm injury, and he still might open the season on the injured list.
My take: The Yankees won at a 90-win pace last year, and the advanced winning percentages and just a quick eyeballing of their roster both tell you that they underperformed. In both cases, the offense fell a little short both of what its actual performance should have yielded and what the players in the lineup were capable of. Gary Sánchez was awful. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both missed half the season with yet more injuries, Gleyber Torres had a down year as he re-adjusted to being a full-time shortstop, slugging just .368, and the bench contributed very little outside of Brett Gardner and backup catcher Kyle Higashioka. Torres’s rebound is the most likely improvement, but Sánchez can’t hit .147 again (he’ll lose his job if he does), and Judge and Stanton reportedly altered their conditioning this winter to favor athleticism over bulk in the hope of staying healthy. If those two can stay healthy and hit in the heart of the lineup with a rebounding Torres, that alone should make the Yankees’ a far more productive lineup, even with the expected correction due DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit.
The question then becomes what of that starting rotation. Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon have combined to make 15 starts over the last two years. Taillon is trying to become the rare pitcher to endure a starter’s workload after a second Tommy John surgery. Kluber is trying to prove he has something left at 35. Domingo Germán has been dominant in camp, but he, too, is returning from a full year of inaction due to violating the league’s domestic violence policy (he was suspended for 81 games), and he will be tested by full-throated hostile crowds and a full-season’s workload. Even Gerrit Cole is suspect given MLB’s intent to crack down on pitchers using sticky substances to increase their spin rates (see Newswire below), and the bullpen is thinner than it has been in recent years due to the injuries to and departures of Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Tommy Kahnle.
The upside of this team remains huge, but another disappointing, 90-ish win season is not at all unlikely.
Toronto (via Dunedin) Blue Jays
2020 Record: 32–28, .533
2020 Deserved WPct: .462
Manager: Charlie Montoyo
Front Office: Mark A. Shapiro (president & CEO), Ross Atkins (executive VP, baseball operations & GM)
Home Ballpark: TD Ballpark, Dunedin, FL / Rogers Centre
Bill James Park Indexes (Rogers Centre 2017-2019):
LH Avg: 98, RH Avg: 99
LH HR: 109, RH HR: 113
Who is replacing whom:
George Springer is consuming much of Randal Grichuk’s playing time plus Derek Fisher’s
Marcus Semien is replacing Travish Shaw and Jonathan Villar
Steven Matz is replacing Chase Anderson
Robbie Ray is consuming Taijuan Walker’s starts
Nate Pearson is consuming Matt Shoemaker’s starts
Ross Stripling is consuming Chase Anderson’s innings
David Phelps is replacing Anthony Bass
Tyler Chatwood is replacing Shun Yamaguchi
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – George Springer (CF)
L – Cavan Biggio (3B)
R – Bo Bichette (SS)
R – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
R – Teoscar Hernández (RF)
R – Marcus Semien (2B)
R – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF)
L – Rowdy Tellez (DH)
R – Danny Jansen (C)
Bench:
R – Randal Grichuk (OF)
R – Jonathan Davis (OF)
R – Santiago Espinal (IF)
R – Alejandro Kirk (C)
Rotation:
Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)
Robbie Ray (L)
Steven Matz (L)
Nate Pearson (R)
Ross Stripling (R)
Bullpen:
Jordan Romano (R)
Rafael Dolis (R)
David Phelps (R)
Tyler Chatwood (R)
Ryan Borucki (L)
Tanner Roark (R)
Francisco Liriano (L)
Julian Merryweather (R)
Injured list:
RHP – Thomas Hatch (right elbow inflammation, ETA TBD)
RHP – Patrick Murphy (strained A/C joint in right shoulder, could miss most of season)
RHP – Kirby Yates (likely Tommy John surgery, out for the year)
Notes on the roster: Francisco Liriano is a non-roster invitee. Backup catcher Reese McGuire is out of options, but Alejandro Kirk is ascendant and could even take a significant share of the starts behind the plate and encroach on Rowdy Tellez’s time at designated hitter. Nate Pearson will likely start the year on the injured list with a groin strain but should return by mid April.
My take: The Blue Jays snuck into the expanded playoffs last year, but they were outscored by 10 runs on the season, and deserved winning percentage saw them as a 75-win team over a 162-game schedule. The reason? The pitching, and defense, was awful. Runs on either side of the ledger can tip the balance—baseball isn’t played to a certain run total, just score more than you allow—so George Springer and Marcus Semien will still make the Blue Jays a better team, but they won’t help the specific things that ailed them last year. Springer a better fielder than Grichuk in center, but not by a lot, and Semien’s arrival has prompted both him and Cavan Biggio to adapt to new positions, which could require some growing pains in the infield.
As for the pitching: Steven Matz, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, re-upping Robbie Ray? These are not moves that suggest an improved pitching staff, and losing would-be closer Kirby Yates to Tommy John surgery a week before Opening Day doesn’t help matters. There’s certainly upside in guys such as 2017 first-rounder Nate Pearson and some of the team’s other young arms, who could provide in-season upgrades as the year goes along, but I’m not at all enthusiastic about the staff with which the Jays are starting the year. The Blue Jays should be applauded for making a big effort this offseason, and it will be fun to see Springer and Semien in their lineup with all that young talent, but the Jays only did half the job this winter.
Baltimore Orioles
2020 Record: 25–35, .417
2020 Deserved WPct: .455
Manager: Brandon Hyde
Front Office: Mike Elias (executive VP & GM)
Home Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 101, RH Avg: 100
LH HR: 112, RH HR: 121
Who is replacing whom:
Trey Mancini is reclaiming his playing time from Renato Núñez
Freddy Galvis is replacing José Iglesias and Andrew Velazquez
Yolmer Sánchez is replacing Hanser Alberto
Maikel Franco is devouring Rio Ruiz’s playing time
Dean Kremer is consuming Asher Wojciechowski’s starts
Matt Harvey is replacing Tommy Milone
Jorge López and Keegan Akin are splitting Alex Cobb’s starts
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
S – Cedric Mullins (CF)
S – Anthony Santander (DH)
R – Trey Mancini (1B)
R – Ryan Mountcastle (LF)
R – Maikel Franco (3B)
R – Austin Hayes (RF)
S – Freddy Galvis (SS)
L – Chance Sisco (C)
S – Yolmer Sánchez (2B)
Bench:
L – DJ Stewart (OF)
L – Rio Ruiz (1B/3B)
R – Pat Valaika (UT)
R – Pedro Severino (C)
Rotation:
John Means (L)
Keegan Akin (L)
Dean Kremer (R)
Jorge López (R)
Matt Harvey (R)
Bullpen:
Cesar Valdez (R)
Cole Sulser (R)
Paul Fry (L)
Tanner Scott (L)
Shawn Armstrong (R)
Dillon Tate (R)
Travis Lakins Sr. (R)
Tyler Wells (R)
Injured list:
SS – Richie Martin (left hamate surgery, could return in early April)
RHP – Hunter Harvey (oblique strain, won’t be back before mid-May)
1B – Chris Davis (lower back strain, likely to miss all of April, possibly more)
Notes on the roster: Tyler Wells is a Rule 5 pick. The Orioles also have Rule 5 RHP Mac Sceroler in camp, but he hasn’t pitched nearly as well as Wells this spring. Jorge López, Cesar Valdez, and Shawn Armstrong are among those out of options. Matt Harvey was just added to the roster and awarded the fifth spot in the rotation on Thursday.
My take: After losing 223 games the previous two years, the Orioles were shockingly close to average last year. They scored 4.57 runs per game against an MLB average of 4.65, and they ranked 16th out of 30 teams in runs allowed per game with a 102 staff ERA+. Deserved winning percentage doesn’t think they were even a 90-loss team, converting their performance to a 74-88 record. What gives?
Well, Ryan Mountcastle had a good rookie year. Anthony Santander is maturing as a hitter. José Iglesias had a wacky small-sample spike season at the age of 30, and several other young Orioles bats were only slightly below average. On the other side of the ball, Alex Cobb stayed healthy, John Means made the All-Star team (because someone from every team has to), 2016 second-rounder Keegan Akin had an encouraging debut, and the bullpen was in the top third in the league in run prevention.
Some of that will carry over (Mountcastle, Santander, and company, Means, Akin, and perhaps more to come from the farm). Some won’t (Iglesias and Cobb are both Angels, the former is due for a big correction, anyway, and the bullpen won’t repeat because no-name bullpens just don’t). The offense could get an extra boost from the return of Trey Mancini, but Renato Núñez posted a 121 OPS+ last year, so that bar is actually fairly high. I expect the Orioles to sink back down somewhat this year, likely falling back into last place, but it does seem clear that the days of the O’s being an embarrassment have passed. They’re just unexceptionally bad now.
Boston Red Sox
2020 Record: 24–36, .400
2020 Deserved WPct: .464
Manager: Alex Cora
Front Office: Chaim Bloom (chief baseball officer), Brian O’Halloran (GM)
Home Ballpark: Fenway Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 105, RH Avg: 103
LH HR: 83, RH HR: 96
Who is replacing whom:
Hunter Renfroe is replacing Jackie Bradley Jr.
Franchy Cordero is replacing Andrew Benintendi and Kevin Pillar
Enrique Hernández is replacing Jose Peraza
Marwin González is consuming some of Michael Chavis’s playing time and all of Tzu-Weil Lin and Yairo Muñoz’s
Bobby Dalbec is consuming some of Michael Chavis’s playing time and all of Mitch Moreland’s
Eduardo Rodríguez is replacing Zack Godley and various spot starters
Garrett Richards is consuming Chris Mazza’s starts plus some other spot starts
Nick Pivetta is consuming Ryan Webber’s innings
Adam Ottavino, Matt Andriese, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Garrett Whitlock are replacing various relievers including Jeffrey Springs, Josh Osich, Dylan Covey, Mike Kickham, Robert Stock, Marcus Walden, and Kyle Hart
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – Enrique Hernández (2B)
L – Alex Verdugo (CF)
R – J.D. Martinez (DH)
R – Xander Bogaerts (SS)
L – Rafael Devers (3B)
R – Christian Vázquez (C)
R – Bobby Dalbec (1B)
R – Hunter Renfroe (RF)
L – Franchy Cordero (LF)
Bench:
S – Marwin González (UT)
R – Michael Chavis (UT)
R – Christian Arroyo (IF)
R – Kevin Plawecki (C)
Rotation:
Eduardo Rodríguez (L)
Nathan Eovaldi (R)
Garrett Richards (R)
Nick Pivetta (R)
Martín Pérez (L)
Bullpen:
Adam Ottavino (R)
Matt Barnes (R)
Ryan Brasier (R)
Matt Andriese (R)
Hirokazu Sawamura (R)
Austin Brice (R)
Darwinzon Hernandez (L)
Garrett Whitlock (R)
Injured list:
LHP – Chris Sale (Tommy John surgery, could return mid-year)
Notes on the roster: Garrett Whitlock is a Rule 5 pick. Christian Arroyo, Nick Pivetta, and Austin Brice are out of options. Ryan Brasier was behind in camp and will likely open the year on the injured list, but should be back in the major-league bullpen in short order. Franchy Cordero could follow a similar path as he was delayed by COVID-19.
My take: The Red Sox’s pitching was brutal last year. Only the Rockies allowed more than Boston’s 5.85 runs per game, and barely at that. Only the Tigers had a staff ERA+ lower than Boston’s 86. Only the Pirates issued more walks per nine innings. There’s no way to paint that staff as good, but the advanced stats do say they weren’t really as bad as all that. The Bosox’s ERA last year was 5.58, but their FIP was 5.19. Deserved run average thinks they were even better than that FIP. That’s still bad, but its not devastatingly terrible. Accordingly, deserved winning percentage thinks the last-place Red Sox were actually a better team than the playoff-bound Blue Jays last year.
That might be a stretch, but with a reinforced pitching staff thanks to the healthy return of Eduardo Rodríguez (he and Mancini will have quite a race for Comeback Player of the Year) and the additions of Garrett Richards, Adam Ottavino (a surprising gift from the penny-pinching Yankees), and Matt Andriese, the Red Sox’s staff should be no more than plain bad this year (Nick Pivetta and Martín Pérez are not good, and I worry about Richards in a hitter-friendly ballpark). On the other side of the ball, slugging first baseman Bobby Dalbec appears ready for his close-up, and Kiké Hernández and Marwin González give Alex Cora two quality super-utility guys to plug holes and complete platoons, a model Michael Chavis, who is having an impressive spring, and Christian Arroyo hope to imitate.
The Red Sox should be better this year. They’ll certainly be a lot easier to watch. I’m just not convinced they’re going to be good.
National League East
Atlanta Braves
2020 Record: 35–25, .583
2020 Deserved WPct: .599
Manager: Brian Snitker
Front Office: Alex Anthopoulos (president, baseball operations & GM)
Home Ballpark: Truist Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 99, RH Avg: 105
LH HR: 93, RH HR: 94
Who is replacing whom:
Christian Pache is replacing Adam Duvall
Nick Markakis’s plate appearances are going to the pitchers
William Contreras is replacing Tyler Flowers
Jake Lamb is replacing Adeiny Hechavarria and Matt Adams
Charlie Morton is replacing Robbie Erlin and Huascar Ynoa’s starts
Drew Smlyly is consuming Sean Newcome and Tommy Milone’s starts
Ian Anderson is consuming Touki Toussaint’s starts
Mike Soroka is reclaiming his starts from Kyle Wright
The relief appearances of Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and Darren O’Day are being distributed among those who remain
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)
S – Ozzie Albies (2B)
L – Freddie Freeman (1B)
R – Marcell Ozuna (LF)
R – Travis d’Arnaud (C)
R – Dansby Swanson (SS)
R – Austin Riley (3B)
R – Cristian Pache (CF)
Bench:
L – Ender Inciarte (OF)
S – Johan Camargo (IF)
L – Jake Lamb (3B/1B)
S – Pablo Sandoval (3B/1B)
R – William Contreras (C)
Rotation:
Max Fried (L)
Charlie Morton (R)
Ian Anderson (R)
Drew Smyly (L)
Mike Soroka (R)
Bullpen:
A.J. Minter (L)
Chris Martin (R)
Tyler Matzek (L)
Will Smith (L)
Grant Dayton (L)
Luke Jackson (R)
Nate Jones (R)
Josh Tomlin (R)
Notes on the roster: Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Grant Dayton are among those out of options. Nate Jones and Pablo Sandoval are non-roster invitees. Soroka will start the season in the injured list as he’s still working his way back from the ruptured Achilles he suffered last August, but he should join the rotation by mid-April. Bryce Wilson will hold down the fifth spot until Soroka’s return.
My take: The Braves are good. They have won the last three NL East titles, won 97 games in 2019, won at a 94-win pace last year, and were every bit that good despite a rotation that was often in shambles. This winter, they have shored up that rotation by adding veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, and they anticipate full seasons from Ian Anderson and Mike Soroka (minus a couple of weeks at the start for Soroka). They’ve improved their defense by giving Cristian Pache the job in center. The only area of concern is the bullpen, which shed some very effective arms without replacing them. Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and Darren O’Day combined to post a 2.30 ERA in 66 1/3 innings last year and they have not been replaced (Greene is still available as a free agent, inexplicably). Still, these Braves are good, they’re young, they’re fun, and they are the team to beat in this division, once again.
Miami Marlins
2020 Record: 31–29, .517
2020 Deserved WPct: .466
Manager: Don Mattingly
Front Office: Kim Ng (GM)
Home Ballpark: Marlins Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 89, RH Avg: 101
LH HR: 77, RH HR: 72
Who is replacing whom:
Adam Duvall replaces Matt Joyce and consumes some of Monte Harrison’s playing time
Jazz Chisholm replaces Jonathan Villar and takes some of Jon Berti’s playing time
Starling Marte consumes Lewis Brinson’s playing time
Jorge Alfaro reclaims some playing time from Francisco Cervelli
Many of Garrett Cooper’s plate appearances go to the pitchers
Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sánchez split Daniel Castano’s starts
Elieser Hernández consumes José Ureña’s starts
Trevor Rogers consumes Jordan Yamamoto’s starts
Anthony Bass replaces Brandon Kintzler
Dylan Floro replaces Nick Vincent
John Curtiss replaces Brad Boxburger
Adam Cimber replaces Josh A. Smith
Yimi García consumes Ryan Stanek’s innings
Ross Detwiler replaces Robert Dugger and Brandon Leibrandt
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
L – Corey Dickerson (LF)
R – Starling Marte (CF)
R – Jesús Aguilar (1B)
R – Adam Duval (RF)
R – Brian Anderson (3B)
L – Jazz Chisholm (2B)
R – Miguel Rojas (SS)
R – Jorge Alfaro (C)
Bench:
R – Jon Berti (UT)
R – Garrett Cooper (1B/OF)
L – Magneuris Sierra (OF)
R – Lewis Brinson (OF)
R – Chad Wallach (C)
Rotation:
Sandy Alcantara (R)
Pablo López (R)
Sixto Sánchez (R)
Elieser Hernandez (R)
Trevor Rogers (L)
Bullpen:
Yimi García (R)
Anthony Bass (R)
Richard Bleier (L)
James Hoyt (R)
Dylan Floro (R)
John Curtiss (R)
Adam Cimber (R)
Ross Detwiler (L)
Injured list:
RHP – Jeff Brigham (unknown, 60-day IL)
Notes on the roster: Magneuris Sierra is among those out of options. The Marlins still have two Rule 5 picks in camp, righties Zach Pop and Paul Campbell. Of the two, Pop is more likely to make the roster.
My take: In terms of actual results versus underlying performance, the Marlins were the Blue Jays of the National League last year. They snuck into the playoffs with 31 wins, but were out-scored by 41 runs on the season. Deserved wining percentage thought they were a 28-win team. Pythagorean record put them at 26 wins. That DWP works out to 75 wins over a full season, which sounds about right.
The Marlins’ pitching was probably better than it looked last year. The problem was a lack of punch on offense. A full year of Starling Marte could help a lot this year, particularly given the Marlins’ other centerfield options of late, but Matt Joyce to Adam Duvall is more of a parallel move. Jazz Chisholm, for all his prospect shine, is an unproven 23-year-old. Miguel Rojas is due for a big correction after a spike year at the age of 32 (he’s the NL’s José Iglesias). There’s some optimism to be had that Corey Dickerson will rebound, and Jorge Alfaro couldn’t possibly be that bad again (70 OPS+), but the pitching is going to have to do the work if the Marlins want to make any waves again this year.
The good news is their talented young rotation (at 26, Elieser Hernández is the oldest) has significant potential. Sandy Alcantara’s 4.07 deserved run average was the highest of this quintet last year by more than a quarter of a run. There’s breakout potential for the rotation as a whole. Meanwhile, general manager Kim Ng’s primary focus this offseason was the bullpen, adding Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, John Curtiss, Adam Cimber, and Ross Detwiler (plus a couple of Rule 5 picks who I don’t think will make the roster). In their pitching-friendly ballpark, the Marlins could prove to have one of the better staffs in the division, if not the league or the majors, which would go a long way toward propping up their sub-par lineup. Still, a middling record seems to be the ceiling for this year’s catch.
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 Record: 28–32, .467
2020 Deserved WPct: .615
Manager: Joe Girardi
Front Office: David Dombrowski (president, baseball operations), Sam Fuld (VP & GM)
Home Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 102, RH Avg: 98
LH HR: 119, RH HR: 121
Who is replacing whom:
Pitchers hitting consume the at-bats of Phil Gosselin and Jay Bruce
Adam Haseley and Odúbel Herrera consume some of the playing time of Scott Kingery and Roman Quinn
Chase Anderson replaces Jake Arrieta
Matt Moore consumes the starts of Spencer Howard and some of Vince Velasquez’s innings
Archie Bradley replaces Tommy Hunter
José Alvarado replaces Blake Parker and Adam Morgan
Samuel Coonrod replaces Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – Andrew McCutchen (LF)
R – J.T. Realmuto (C)
L – Bryce Harper (RF)
R – Rhys Hoskins (1B)
R – Alec Bohm (3B)
L – Didi Gregorius (SS)
R – Jean Segura (2B)
L - Adam Haseley (CF)
Bench:
R – Scott Kingery (UT)
L – Brad Miller (IF)
L – Odúbel Herera (OF)
S – Roman Quinn (OF)
S – Andrew Knapp (C)
Rotation:
Aaron Nola (R)
Zack Wheeler (R)
Zach Eflin (R)
Chase Anderson (R)
Matt Moore (L)
Bullpen:
Héctor Neris (R)
Archie Bradley (R)
David Hale (R)
JoJo Romero (L)
José Alvarado (L)
Samuel Coonrod (R)
Connor Brodgon (R)
Vince Velasquez (R)
Injured list:
RHP – Seranthony Dominguez (Tommy John surgery, out for the year)
Notes on the roster: Vince Velasquez and Brad Miller could open the season on the injured list due to oblique strains, but both should return quickly. Adam Haseley is already back in games following a groin strain and now seems likely to break camp with the team. Roman Quinn and David Hale are out of options.
My take: Okay, here’s where all that deserved winning percentage stuff blows up in my face a little. The Phillies were the second-best team in baseball last year by that measure, with a .615 DWP. That translates to a 100-win season over a 162 games. That’s 24 wins better than the Phils’ actual winning percentage prorated over 162 games. Last year’s Phillies were outscored by five runs on the season. Their real level was 100-wins? Seriously?
Well, ask yourself this: What’s wackier, looking at last year’s Phillies and seeing a 100-win team, or the Phillies’ actual bullpen ERA last year of 7.06? Seven-point-oh-six? Teams don’t put up ERAs like that! That was obviously a fluke. Indeed, the discrepancy between the Phillies’ actual performance and their “deserved” results had a lot to do with some brutal luck in run prevention, most of it from the bullpen.
The 2020 Phillies were in the top third in the majors in starter’s ERA (4.08 against an MLB average of 4.46). Even with the bullpen factored in, their staff FIP was still better than that league-average ERA at 4.43. Their actual staff ERA, however, was 5.14. Here we have a clue. Indeed, the Phillies were an absolutely brutal defensive team last year. They were dead last in the majors in defensive efficiency (the rate of turning balls in play into outs). The deserved-runs stats correct for defense and tell us the Phillies actually had the best pitching staff in baseball (with Aaron Nola leading the NL with a 2.58 deserved run average). There’s our discrepancy.
The trick is, the Phillies haven’t altered their defense at all since last year. So, while the bullpen’s awful luck should correct itself, in part by shedding many of the worst offenders (the ten Phillies relievers to post an ERA of 8.00 or higher last year are all gone), there’s not much hope that the team will turn more balls in play into outs, particularly at the infield corners and in the outfield. Still, if the bullpen can come closer in line with the rotation in terms of luck and defensive support, and the offense can keep doing its thing, the Phillies should at the very least climb back over .500 for the first time since 2011. To do much better than that, however, they might need to find someone other than Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura who is as good at catching the ball as they are at hitting it.
New York Mets
2020 Record: 26–34, .433
2020 Deserved WPct: .585
Manager: Luis Rojas
Front Office: Sandy Alderson (president), Zack Scott (acting GM)
Home Ballpark: Citi Field
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 92, RH Avg: 89
LH HR: 97, RH HR: 107
Who is replacing whom:
Francisco Lindor is replacing most of Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario
James McCann is replacing Wilson Ramos
The pitchers are consuming Robinson Canó’s plate appearances
Jonathan Villar is replacing some of Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario and all of Todd Frazier
Kevin Pillar is replacing Jake Marisnick
Albert Almora Jr. is replacing Billy Hamilton and Guillermo Heredia
Marcus Stroman is replacing Rick Porcello
Taijuan Walker is replacing Michael Wacha
Joey Lucchesi and Carlos Carrasco are replacing Steven Matz and Seth Lugo’s starts
Trevor May is replacing Jared Hughes
Aaron Loup is replacing Chasen Shreve
Jacob Barnes is replacing Justin Wilson
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
L – Brandon Nimmo (CF)
S – Francisco Lindor (SS)
L – Michael Conforto (RF)
R – Pete Alonso (1B)
L – Dominic Smith (LF)
L – Jeff McNeil (2B)
R – J.D. Davis (3B)
R – James McCann (C)
Bench:
S – Jonathan Villar (UT)
R – Kevin Pillar (OF)
L – Luis Guillorme (IF)
R – Albert Almora Jr. (OF)
R – Tomás Nido (C)
Rotation:
Jacob deGrom (R)
Marcus Stroman (R)
Taijuan Walker (R)
David Peterson (L)
Joey Lucchesi (L)
Bullpen:
Edwin Díaz (R)
Miguel Castro (R)
Trevor May (R)
Jeurys Familia (R)
Aaron Loup (L)
Robert Gsellman (R)
Jacob Barnes (R)
Mike Montgomery (L)
Injured list:
RHP – Carlos Carrasco (grade 1 right hamstring strain, likely out until May)
RHP – Seth Lugo (bone spurs removed from pitching elbow, will miss at least the first two months)
OF/1B – José Martínez (torn meniscus in left knee, out until July)
RHP – Noah Syndergaard (Tommy John surgery, could return mid-year)
Restricted list:
2B – Robinson Canó (162-game PED suspension, Stanozolol)
Notes on the roster: Tomás Nido, Miguel Castro, and Jacob Barnes are out of options. Mike Montgomery is a non-roster invitee.
My take: The Mets are a less extreme version of the Phillies. They have a better lineup and a better pitching staff, but their fielding is nearly as bad and could sink their high hopes for 2021 just as it did their more modest hopes for 2020. Deserved winning percentage tells us last year’s Mets had the talent of a 95-win team, but they lost at a 92-loss pace in part because of lousy fielding. That wasn’t all, though. The lineup didn’t score as many runs as its off-the-bat results would suggest, and the pitching staff, like the Phillies’, was undermined by some fluky-bad results, in this case in the rotation (see Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo).
Those four are all gone from the rotation, replaced by Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, Joey Lucchesi, and the promise of Carlos Carrasco and, eventually, Noah Syndergaard. The lineup has been upgraded at two very difficult spots to upgrade, shortstop and catcher, and the bench is loaded with quality defensive caddies who could help the bullpen lock down wins. The Mets did by far the best job of upgrading their team this winter. If they can stay healthy and someone other than Francisco Lindor figures out how to turn balls in play into outs at a respectable rate, they’ll be dangerous, possibly in the division, but definitely in the wild-card hunt.
Washington Nationals
2020 Record: 26–34, .433
2020 Deserved WPct: .487
Manager: Dave Martinez
Front Office: Mike Rizzo (GM & president of baseball operations)
Home Ballpark: Nationals Park
Bill James Park Indexes (2018-2020):
LH Avg: 109, RH Avg: 100
LH HR: 114, RH HR: 110
Who is replacing whom:
Josh Bell is replacing Eric Thames and Howie Kendrick
Kyle Schwarber is replacing Adam Eaton
Starlin Castro is reclaiming his playing time from Luis V. García
Alex Avila is replacing Kurt Suzuki
Ryan Zimmerman is reclaiming some playing time from Asdúbal Cabrera
The rest of Cabrera’s plate appearances are going to the pitchers
Stephen Strasburg is reclaiming his starts from Austin Voth
Jon Lester is replacing Aníbal Sánchez
Joe Ross is replacing Erick Fedde
Brad Hand is replacing Sean Doolittle and a variety of other relievers
Projected 26-man roster
Lineup:
R – Victor Robles (CF)
R – Trea Turner (SS)
L – Juan Soto (RF)
S – Josh Bell (1B)
L – Kyle Schwarber (L)
R – Yan Gomes (C)
R – Starlin Castro (2B)
R – Carter Kieboom (3B)
Bench:
L – Ryan Zimmerman (1B)
R – Josh Harrison (UT)
L – Andrew Stevenson (OF)
L – Yadiel Hernandez (OF)
L – Alex Avila (C)
Rotation:
Max Scherzer (R)
Stephen Strasburg (R)
Patrick Corbin (L)
Jon Lester (L)
Joe Ross (R)
Bullpen:
Brad Hand (L)
Daniel Hudson (R)
Tanner Rainey (R)
Wander Suero (R)
Kyle Finnegan (R)
Will Harris (R)
Luis Avilán (L)
Austin Voth (R)
Notes on the roster: Joe Ross appears to be winning the fifth-starter competition, but all three combatants, adding Austin Voth and Erick Fedde, are out of options, though I doubt all three will make the roster. Luis Avilán is a non-roster invitee. Will Harris has been sidelined by a small bloodclot in his pitching arm and could open the year on the injured list. Tanner Rainey was slowed by a strained muscle near his collarbone in camp but should be ready for Opening Day. Perhaps most intriguingly, Carter Kieboom could be playing his way out of his third-base job in camp. If he gets demoted, Starlin Castro would slide over to third and Luis García would start at second, though García hasn’t hit much in camp, either, so I don’t expect that change to happen.
My take: The Nationals weren’t a typical last-place team last year. They were only outscored by eight runs on the season. Deserved winning percentage put them on a 79-win pace. This year, they have a healthy Stephen Strasburg back, upgraded at closer with Brad Hand, and think they’ve rejuvenated Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom have had great springs. The problem with those last two is they’re lousy in the field, and this was yet another NL East team that was near the bottom of the defensive-efficiency leaderboard last year. That could be murder on Jon Lester, who looks done and doesn’t get many strikeouts anymore. Even if Bell and Schwarber do hit, there’s maybe half a good team here. The Nationals have too much talent to be terrible, but they have too many holes to be good
Exhibitionism: Days 25 and 26
Wednesday
Christian Yelich homered for the second consecutive day, this one a grand slam:
Bo Bichette and Austin Riley were unimpressed. They both hit two homers on Wednesday.
Bichette’s both went to the opposite field:
Austin Riley’s both went to dead center, the first over the batter’s eye:
The second, just to the left of it:
The most notable play of the day was the one on which Eloy Jiménez got hurt (see Aches and Pains below), but to put that out of your mind for a moment, enjoy this tumbling catch by Blue Jays’ second baseman Otto López, a 22-year-old who has already been demoted:
Keeping things positive, the play of the day was this circus act by Angels shortstop José Iglesias, who again made a seemingly impossible throw to get Royals backup catcher Cam Gallagher:
Finally, the hitters are starting to catch back up to the pitchers, but Astros prospect Luis Garcia still managed an immaculate fifth inning (nine pitches, all strikes) against the Nationals, striking out Alex Avila and Carter Kieboom swinging and Victor Robles looking. Four of the strikes, including a check-swing third strike on Kieboom, were swinging.
His reaction after the game was very charming:
Thursday
Astros pitching perfection reared its head again on Thursday, as Jose Urquidy threw five perfect frames against the Cardinals, striking out four, quite possibly nailing down the fifth-starter’s job in the process.
The other notable pitching performance of the day was Casey Mize, who did not make the Tigers’ Opening Day rotation, but had a good outing to take into the regular season, allowing just two runs in five hits in four innings, but, more impressively striking out nine against no walks against the Blue Jays’ starters.
Speaking of pitchers, Shohei Ohtani hit his fifth homer of the spring, a 350-foot flare the opposite way:
Chris Owings, who was added to the Rockies roster last weekend, hit two home runs in that game.
Elsewhere, Jorge Soler hit his fifth, but Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec put everyone else in his rearview mirror by hitting his MLB-leading seventh of the spring:
Orioles outfielder Austin Hays had a day against the Pirates, going 3-for-4 with a double, a triple, a homer, and this throw to nail Tony Wolters trying to score on a sac fly to fairly deep right field:
Also in that game, Phillip Evans made this catch at the wall:
Finally, Didi Gregorius made this brilliant over-the-shoulder sliding catch in shallow center to rob former teammate Aaron Judge of a bloop hit:
On Deck: The Weekend’s Schedule
Note: From Saturday through the final day of the exhibition schedule on Tuesday, all televised games will be free on MLB.tv.
Friday, March 26
Idle teams: Cardinals (FL),Angels (AZ)
Televised games:
Tigers @ Pirates, 1:05 pm EST, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
Red Sox @ Rays, 1:05 pm EST, Fox Sports Sun
Giants @ Cubs, 4:05 pm EST, Marquee Sports Network
White Sox @ Brewers, 4:10 pm EST, Fox Sports Wisconsin
Braves @ Twins, 6:05 pm EST, Fox Sports South, Fox Sports North
Nationals @ Mets, 6:10 pm EST, SNY
A’s @ Dodgers, 9:05 pm EST, SportsNet LA
Pitching notes: Logan Allen closes his case for a spot in the Cleveland rotation, Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Carlos Rodón for the White Sox both appear to have made their team’s rotations (Peralta’s position becoming official on Thursday), against one another, and Nick Tropeano for the Giants’ roster. Bryse Wilson takes a victory lap against Kenta Maeda. Also Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Rogers vs. Zack Greinke, and a matchup of Opening Day starters in Chris Bassitt and Clayton Kershaw.
Saturday, March 27
Idle teams: Nationals (FL),Diamondbacks (AZ)
Televised games (all free on MLB.tv):
Red Sox @ Pirates, 1:05 pm EST
Rays @ Twins, 1:05 pm EST
Blue Jays @ Yankees, 1:05 pm EST
Astros @ Mets, 1:10 pm EST
Cleveland @ Dodgers, 3:05 pm EST
Padres @ Angels, 3:10 pm EST
White Sox @ Rockies, 4:10 pm EST
Orioles @ Braves, 6:05 pm EST
Marlins @ Cardinals, 6:05 pm EST
Giants @ Mariners, 9:40 pm EST
Pitching notes: A start this Saturday puts a pitcher on regular rest for Opening Day on Thursday, so we’ll see Opening Day starters Shane Bieber,Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Woodruff, Lucas Giolito, John Means, and not-yet-announced Opening Day starters Luis Castillo and Germán Márquez. Also Blake Snell, Julio Teheran, and A.J. Puk.
Sunday, March 28
Idle teams: Astros (FL), Mariners (AZ)
Televised games (all free on MLB.tv):
Cardinals @ Nationals, 1:05 pm EST
Twins @ Red Sox, 1:05 pm EST
Braves @ Rays, 1:05 pm EST
Yankees @ Phillies, 1:05 pm EST
Tigers @ Blue Jays, 1:07 PM EST
Cubs @ Rangers, 3:05 pm EST
A’s @ Giants, 4:05 pm EST
Diamondbacks @ White Sox, 4:05 pm EST
Royals @ Rockies, 4:10 pm EST
Dodgers @ Angels, 9:07 pm EST
Pitching notes: Dallas Keuchel, Mike Minor, Andrew Heaney, and Jeff Hoffman
Newswire
MLB’s sticky-stuff crackdown
According to reports on Wednesday by Joel Sherman, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers, Major League Baseball is finally going to do something about pitchers’ use of foreign substances to get a better grip on the baseball. Somewhat surprisingly, the thing they’re doing does not involve a better-regulated method of allowing pitchers to get a better grip. Instead, it is an old-school crackdown bent on eliminating what has become a widespread and widely accepted practice within the game.
Opposing teams have long agreed to look the other way when pitchers use sticky substances to get a better grip on the ball, both because they don’t want pitchers to lose control of the ball in the direction of a batter’s head, and because they want their own pitchers to have the same advantage. The practice has become something of an open secret in the game, so much so that MLB has experimented with a new baseball with a tackier surface that would give pitchers a similar grip without the use of foreign substances (I wrote about that in Issue 2). Thus far, MLB and Rawlings have failed to produce a suitable tacky ball, but Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization have already made the switch. So, it’s quite surprising to see MLB now head in the opposite direction and try to eliminate sticky stuff entirely.
Per Rogers and Passan, MLB disciplinarian Mike Hill sent a memo to all thirty teams informing them that MLB will be paying much closer attention to the use of foreign substances this year, including taking balls out of play and sending them to a third-party lab for analysis, monitoring pitchers’ Statcast spin rates for spikes that could indicate the use of such substances, and having compliance officers in dugouts, bullpens, clubhouses, tunnels, and batting cages to look for signs of substances. Per the memo, “players are subject to discipline . . . regardless of whether evidence of the violation has been discovered during or following a game.”
Per Rogers, the idea behind the crackdown is to reduce pitchers’ advantage and, hopefully, curb the decade-long surge in strikeouts (which is, by far, the game’s biggest problem). If MLB is able to dramatically reduce the use of such sticky substances, this might prove to be the rare Rob Manfred-era policy change that actually has the desired effect.
Ironically, the pitcher who best made the case against the use of such sticky substances is also the pitcher who could have the most to lose from the new policy. When he was with Cleveland, Trevor Bauer was outspoken about how much sticky substances could increase spin rate, which can make pitches, particularly fastballs, more effective and harder to hit. Bauer claimed it gave pitchers who used the stuff an unfair advantage over pitchers who didn’t, comparing the situation to the difference between juiced and clean players in the steroid era. Bauer went as far as to hang a number on it, telling reporters in May 2018 that, at game speed, sticky stuff could increase spin rate by 200 to 300 rpm.
Bauer made these statements two days after a start in which his spin rate in the first inning was 300 rpm faster than usual and returned to normal after the first inning. It is widely believed that Bauer was experimenting with sticky substances in that first inning to drive home his point. Bauer has never denied it.
The first year of full Statcast data was 2015. Here’s the spin rate of Bauer’s fastball in the six seasons since:
Bauer won the Cy Young award in 2020 with a career-high strikeout rate of 12.3 K/9 compared to an average of 9.7 K/9 in the previous five seasons. Put another way, from 2015 to 2019, Bauer struck out 25.6 percent of the batters he faced. In 2020, with that big jump in spin rate (an increase of 364 rpm from the year before), he struck out 36 percent of the batters he faced.
Here’s another pitcher with an interesting spin and strikeout-rate history:
This graph is zoomed in to make the increase more obvious. This pitcher struck out 8.7 men per nine innings (22.7 percent of batters) from 2015 to 2017 and has struck out 12.9 per nine (36.6 percent) in the three years since. His name is Gerrit Cole, and he was traded from the Pirates to the Houston Astros in January 2018.
It will be very interesting to see how MLB treats players like Bauer and Cole, the former UCLA teammates and rivals who were both taken in the top three picks in the 2011 draft. Will they use Bauer’s pre-2020 spin rate and Cole’s pre-2018 spin rate as the baseline? Or will they grandfather in everyone’s 2020 spin rates, which will do nothing to reduce the usage of substances in 2021, but could potentially curb new adopters, such as last year’s Trevor Bauer.
One thing I’m fairly certain about: this will be an unpopular policy, as Bauer estimated that 70 percent of the league used sticky substances, and it will prove as messy and sticky a situation as the substances baseball is trying to ban.
Dr. Bobby Brown (1924–2021)
Robert William Brown was one of the most accomplished people ever to play major league baseball. Born in Seattle, he was the sun of a semi-pro ballplayer named Bill Brown and thus lived something of an itinerant life as a kid, though he did most of his growing up in Seattle and San Francisco, attending Joe DiMaggio’s alma mater in the latter, Galileo High School. Because they coincided with World War II, his college years were similar nomadic. He started at Stanford in 1942 intending to study chemical engineering. There, he enlisted in the navy and was assigned to a unit at UCLA, where he continued his studies as a pre-med student. In December 1944, he was assigned to Tulane Medical School, and he finished his degree there despite signing with the Yankees in February of his senior year.
Brown made his major-league debut that September, debuting in the same game as his roommate, Yogi Berra. From 1948 to 1951, Brown was a semi-regular third baseman, pinch-hitter, and utility infielder with the Yankees, averaging 104 games and 372 plate appearances per year while hitting .281/.369/.385 (101 OPS+) and averaging 43 walks against just 18 strikeouts per year. He shined brightest in the World Series. Brown won four pennants and four World Series with the Yankees, in 1947 and 1949–51, and he hit an eye-popping .439/.500/.707 in 46 plate appearances in those four World Series, including a key hit in Game 7 of the 1947 Classic. Throughout those years, he also attended medical school, earning his degree from Tulane in 1950. Brown never regretted his medical career, but he always wondered what kind of ballplayer he could have been had he devoted himself fully to baseball.
After the 1951 World Series, Brown interned at Southern Pacific Hospital in San Francisco. In July 1952, he was drafted into the Korean War as a battalion surgeon, ultimately serving nineteen months in Korea and Japan. Brown spent about a month and a half back with the Yankees in 1954, but that July, at the age of 29, he retired from baseball to practice medicine. Brown became certified as a cardiologist in 1958 and practiced full time until 1984, when he was 60 years old.
Brown never fully left baseball behind, however. He was interim president of the Texas Rangers for six months in 1974, taking a leave of absence from his practice in Fort Worth. Then, in 1984, Brown was named president of the American League, which, among other things, meant his signature was on American League baseballs from 1984 to 1994.
According to his SABR Biography:
Dr. Brown is a member of the Athletic Halls of Fame at Stanford, UCLA, and Tulane Universities, as well as those of Galileo High School, San Francisco Prep, and Greater New Orleans. He has received the Presidential Citation from the American Academy of Otolaryngology (1990), the Branch Rickey Award for Uncommon Service to Baseball (1992), and has been awarded three honorary doctorates (from Trinity College, the University of Massachusetts, and Hillsdale College). He was awarded the United States Coast Guard Silver Lifesaving Medal and served our country proudly during World War Two and the Korean War.
Dr. Brown is survived by three children, ten grandchildren, and 14 grandchildren.
Aches and Pains
White Sox LF Eloy Jiménez out 5 to 6 months
This is awful. Jiménez got hung up on the wall trying to catch a Sean Murphy home run in Wendesday’s game and tore his left pectoral tendon. Now, Jiménez, who will require surgery, could miss the entire regular season. That’s a huge blow to one of the games most compelling up-and-coming teams and to one of its emerging young stars. Jiménez hit .296/.332/.559 (140 OPS+) with 14 home runs in the 60-game season last year, but will now miss most and possibly all of his age-24 season.
Adam Engel is the White Sox top option to replace Jiménez in left field, but Engel will also start the season in the injured list with a strained right hamstring. Engel should return by mid-April. In the meantime, the White Sox can run Leury García out there and will give rookie Andew Vaughn a chance to play the position over the final few days of the exhibition schedule. Given that five- to six-month timetable, there is a chance Jiménez could return for the stretch run and, if Chicago makes it, the playoffs, but I worry about the quality of his at-bats in such a scenario, as he was just rounding into form as an impact major-league bat last year.
Rays RHP Nick Anderson to miss first half
Anderson has a partial tear of a ligament in his elbow (the exact ligament has not been specified) and will miss at least the first half of the 2021 season. The plan is for Anderson to rest for eight weeks, then attempt to ramp back up. Surgery has not been recommended. Anderson has been a key late-game arm for the Rays since they acquired him from the Marlins in a 2019 deadline deal with Trevor Richards for Ryne Stanek and outfielder Jesús Sánchez. In 42 regular-season appearances with the Rays, Anderson has posted some absurd numbers: 1.43 ERA, 302 ERA+, 1.50 FIP, 0.58 WHIP, 16.0 K/9, and 13.40 K/BB. He was dominant in the 2019 postseason, as well, but seemed to run out of gas in last year’s playoffs, allowing a run in each of his last seven appearances, for a 7.20 ERA over that span., including blown saves in Games 4 and 6 of the World Series. This spring, Anderson wasn’t anything special in his first three outings, and his fourth saw a sharp velocity drop, which triggered the detection of his injury. The Rays don’t tend to use a set closer, but losing Anderson is a blow to their high-leverage relief depth nonetheless.
Cardinals CF Harrison Bader out 4 to 6 weeks
Bader had been bothered by a forearm issue all spring. On Wednesday, the Cardinals labelled it a flexor strain and said Bader would be out four to six weeks. He’ll get a platelet-rich plasma injection to aid the healing, but should miss all of April. Top prospect Dylan Carlson will shift into center and the Cardinals will likely go with a platoon of Justin Williams and Lane Thomas in right. If Matt Carpenter can get his bat going, moving Tommy Edman into an outfield corner and letting Carpenter play second would be an option, but Carpenter is 1-for-33 with spring with 13 strikeouts (though he has walked seven times).
Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland out at least a month
Freeland has a left shoulder strain (I still suspect it’s a teres major injury, but the team hasn’t been that specific). Manager Bud Black called Freeland’s MRI “pretty promising.” The lefty will miss at least a month, but some of that time will be him building back up to season-ready. This injury could create an opportunity for non-roster righty Chi Chi Gonzalez, who made 16 starts for Colorado over the last two years.
Pirates LHP Steven Brault out 10 to 12 weeks
Brault, who was set to be part of the Pirates starting rotation, has a latissimus dorsi strain. He’ll be shut down for a month, then will have to build back up for the season. That puts his return in late June. Trevor Cahill will take his rotation spot for now.
Rangers OF/DH Khris Davis out for 3 to 4 weeks
Davis strained his left quad on an infield single on Tuesday. He’ll miss most of April. The right-handed Davis seemed likely to be the short side of a designated hitter platoon, at least to start the year.
Pirates RHP Blake Cederlind Tommy John surgery
We knew this was coming, but now it’s official. Cederlind, who made his major-league debut last year, will be 26 when he returns to action next year.
Roster Decisions
Angels optioned IFs Luis Rengifo and Jack Mayfield and C Anthony Bemboom; reassigned IFs Phil Gosselin and Kean Wong, C Anthony Mulrine, RHPs Jake Faria, Zac Kristofak, Packy Naughton, Jake Reed, Ben Rowen, and Austin Warren, and LHPs Reid Detmers, Thomas Pannone, and Dillon Peters
Note: Franklin Barreto’s inflamed elbow seemed to hand the Angels’ utility infield job to Luis Rengifo, but I guess not. With Rengifo’s demotion, it appears that job is going to go to non-roster utility man José Rojas, who has had a great spring, hitting .321/.487/.607 with 10 walks against just four strikeouts in 28 at-bats. A 28-year-old left-handed hitter who was born in Anaheim and drafted by the Angels out of Vanguard University of Southern California, Rojas can play first, second, third, and the outfield corners, but he doesn’t play shortstop. David Fletcher does, which means Rojas is going to have to give Fletcher some days off at second as compensation. Barreto won’t be back until May at the earliest.
Astros optioned UT Taylor Jones; reassigned Cs Korey Lee and Michael Papierski; released Steven Souza Jr. and Steve Cishek
Note: I had Jones on my projected Astros roster. He is headed to the alternate training site, meaning he’ll be among the first in line should the Astros lose a hitter to injury. I also thought Cishek might make the Astros (he’s also on my projected roster). Most likely he’ll catch on somewhere else.
Athletics optioned C Austin Allen
Note: I had Allen on my projected A’s roster, but it seems Aramis Garcia has won the backup catcher job.
Braves optioned OF Guillermo Heredia and RHPs Jacob Webb and Kyle Wright; reassigned IF Ryan Goins; released RHP Carl Edwards Jr.
Note: Write’s demotion suggests that Bryce Wilson will indeed be the fifth starter, though Mike Soroka should return to claim that spot in the rotation by mid-April.
Cardinals optioned RHP Johan Oviedo
Diamondbacks optioned C/OF Daulton Varsho; reassigned IFs Domingo Leyba and Juniel Querecuto, RHPs Miguel Aguilar and Seth Frankoff, and LHP Ryan Buchter
Note: Varsho hasn’t hit much this spring (6-for-44, .136 with 13 strikeouts against one walk), but I’m surprised to see him demoted to start the year. That will allow Ketel Marte to shift to center and Asdrúbal Cabrera and Josh Rojas to get more playing time at second base, all three of whom have had hot springs.
Dodgers select RHP Jimmy Nelson; option IF Sheldon Neuse
Note: Elbow problems and back surgery derailed Nelson’s career, the latter wiping out his 2020 entirely, but he was sharp in camp (7 IP 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K), and the fact that Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol won’t be ready for Opening Day makes room for him on a very crowded Dodgers pitching staff. I thought Neuse might make the Opening Day roster as a utility guy. His demotion could be good news for Matt Beaty.
Giants optioned UT Jason Vosler and LHP Sam Selman; reassigned OF Joe McCarthy, RHPs Silvino Bracho and Rico Garcia, and LHP Phil Pfeifer
Mariners reassigned Cs Cal Raleight and José Godoy
Mets optioned RHP Jordan Yamamoto; reassigned UT Brandon Drury, C Bruce Maxwell, and RHP Corey Oswalt; released RHP Tommy Hunter
Note: Yamamoto’s demotion would seem to hand the fifth-starter’s job to Joey Lucchesi, at least until Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard are ready to return from the injured list. Hunter opted out of his minor-league deal.
Nationals optioned RHPs Dakota Bacus and Ryne Harper
Orioles selected RHP Matt Harvey; released Wade LeBlanc
Note: Harvey beat out Félix Hernández for the Orioles’ final rotation spot, but he wasn’t necessarily good this spring. He posted a 5.40 ERA with six strikeouts and three home runs allowed in 10 innings. The most impressive thing about his line was that he walked just one batter. LeBlanc opted out of his minor-league contract.
Phillies released C Jeff Mathis and RHPs Iván Nova and Hector Rondón
Note: All three of these major-league veterans requested their releases, as none were going to make the Phillies’ Opening Day roster.
Pirates optioned IF Cole Tucker and RHPs Sean Poppen and Miguel Yajure; reassigned IF Will Craig, OF Troy Stokes Jr., and Cs Joe Hudson and Andrew Susac
Note: A first-round pick in 2014, Tucker is getting dangerously close to busted-prospect territory. He has hit .215/.260/.324 (55 OPS+) in 275 career major-league plate appearances and was 4-for-23 (.174) this spring. He’ll turn 25 in July.
Rangers optioned LHPs Kolby Allard and Joe Palumbo; reassigned Jason Martin and Spencer Patton
Note: The Rangers told non-roster invitee UT Brock Holt and rostered players C Jonah Heim, RHP Dan Dunning, and LHPs Wes Benjamin, Taylor Hearn, and John King that they have made the Opening Day roster. Holt and King were not on my projected Rangers’ roster on Monday, but both could be considered injury replacements (for Khris Davis and José Leclerc).
Rays reassigned IFs Dalton Kelly and Miles Mastrobuoni, OF Joe Odom, C Brett Sullivan, and RHP David Hess
Red Sox optioned IF Jonathan Arauz to the alternate training site
Tigers selected Julio Teheran; optioned IF Isaac Paredes and C Jake Rogers
Note: Teheran and Tarik Subal have both made the starting rotation, we well they should have.Paredes is the Tigers’ Third Baseman of the Future, but he was just 4-for-32 (.125) in camp, so the future remains in the future. For now, Jeimer Candelario will play the hot corner, making room for Miguel Cabrera to see more time in the field, though Niko Goodrum also seems likely to get a good share of the playing time at first base.
Twins optioned LHP Lewis Thorpe; reassigned C David Bañuelos, RHPs Luke Farrell, Ian Hamilton, Juan Minaya, and Glenn Sparkman, and LHP Andrew Albers; released IF Andrew Romine
Note: I had Thorpe on my projected Twins roster, but he was granted an extra option by the arbitrator, and the Twins are using it.
Yankees reassigned OFs Sócrates Brito and Ryan LaMarre, and RHPs Kyle Barraclough and Asher Wojciechowski
Transaction Reactions
Astros extend RHP Lance McCullers Jr. ($85M/5yrs)
McCullers was due to become a free agent this fall, so this is effectively a free-agent signing eight months early. That’s a nice chunk of change for a pitcher who has never stayed healthy enough to make 23 starts or throw 130 innings in a major league season. Including the minors, McCullers’s career highs are 28 starts and 157 2/3 innings split between Double-A and he majors in 2015. McCullers will look to break both of those marks in his age-27 season this year. The new contract takes him through his age-32 season.
An extreme groundballer who famously through 24 straight curveballs to close out Game 7 of the 2017 American League Championship Series, McCullers is a good pitcher when healthy. His walk rates are higher than average, but he compensates by striking out 10 men per nine innings and surpassing fly balls and home runs with his sinker/curve/changeup mix. McCullers has a career 110 ERA+, but the advanced stats suggest he’s been even better than that. His career ERA is 3.70, but his deserved run average (which includes unearned runs, as well) is 3.66, and his fielding independent pitching mark is 3.29. In 46 2/3 postseason innings, he has posted a 3.28 ERA.
Other than the long injury history, my biggest concern about McCullers stems from MLB’s new sticky-stuff policy. The Astros are known for using the stuff, and McCullers’s curve has a very high rate of spin (about 2,790 rpm over his last two healthy seasons). However, Statcast’s Active Spin leaderboard suggests that only 71 percent of that spin is contributing to the break of McCullers’s curve (the rest is “gyro-spin,” which just helps the ball travel through the air like the spiral on a football). A drop in spin would still seem likely to diminish the effectiveness of the pitch, but McCullers, who is a true student of pitching, could compensate for that with a more efficient spin axis.
More than anything else, I think this contract reflects the Astros’ awareness of how quickly good pitching can dissipate. In 2018, the Astros had a world-beating rotation, but they have since lost Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Gerrit Cole to free agency and Justin Verlander to Tommy John surgery. McCullers is the only member of that year’s starting five left, and the Astros are going to hold on to him.
Angels returned Rule 5 pick RHP Jose Alberto Rivera to Astros
The Dominican Rivera didn’t pitch in the States until he was 21. He spent two years as a swing man in the low minors, issued a bunch of walks in A-ball in 2019, then sat out 2020 because there were no minor leagues. I don’t know that the Angels thought they saw in him, but I assume it wasn’t there on closer inspection. Rivera threw one Cactus League inning, retired all three men he faced, striking out one.
Rangers exercise MGR Chris Woodward’s option for 2022
This move removes Woodward’s lame-duck status. It’s difficult to get too much of a read on Woodward as a manager given that he was a rookie in 2019 and his team was awful in the shortened 2020 and is likely to be again. He seems like a perfectly cromulent babysitter for an organization lacking in direction.
LHP Gio González retired
González held out for a contract with his hometown Marlins this winter, got into one exhibition game and was absolutely torched, giving up eight hits and two walks while getting just one out and ultimately being charged with seven runs for a 189.00 ERA. That’s an unfortunate end to a solid major-league career for the 35-year-old lefty.
Taken 38th overall in the 2004 draft with the pick the White Sox received when Tom Gordon signed with the Yankees, González was a well-regarded prospect, ranking as high as 26th on Baseball America’s annual top-100. Both despite and because of that, he was traded three times before he made his major-league debut in 2008. He went from the White Sox to the Phillies in the December 2005 Jim Thome/Aaron Rowand trade, back to the White Sox almost exactly a year later in the Gavin Floyd/Freddy Garcia trade, then was the key part of the package the Sox sent to Oakland for Nick Swisher in January 2008.
González emerged as a quality major-league starting pitcher in Oakland. In 2010 and ’11, he posted a 128 ERA and won a combined 31 games, striking out 197 men in the latter season, while also leading the majors with 91 walks. González made the All-Star team 2011, and thus headlined a trade for a change that winter, going to the Nationals four a four-player package.
González’s first season in Washington was his best. He made his second and final All-Star team, posted 2.89 ERA (138 ERA+) in 199 1/3 innings, struck out 207, led the majors in FIP, home-run rate and wins (21-8), and the NL in strikeout rate (9.3 K/9), got some down-ballot MVP votes and finished third in the Cy Young voting. Overall, he spent most of seven season with the Nationals, picking up some more Cy Young votes in 2017, compiling 86 wins and a 112 ERA+ for the Nats and appearing in four postseasons, albeit with poor results both personally and for the team.
He never did get his walks under control, however, and the end came quickly once he left Washington. He finished 2018 with the Brewers, making his final playoff appearance, and had a solid but partial season for them in 2019. Last year, he finally suited up for the White Sox, but with poor results. He never did play for the Phillies. In total, he won 131 major-league games and compiled 30 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference, in 13 major-league seasons, an impressive career by any standard.
Feedback
I want to hear from you. Got a question, a comment, a request? Reply to this issue. Want to participate in my reader survey (favorite team, place of residence, birth year)? Reply to this issue. Want to interview me on your podcast, send me your book, bake me some cookies? Reply to this issue. I will respond, and if I find your question particularly interesting, I’ll feature it in a future “Inbox.”
You can also write me at cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com, or @ me on twitter @CliffCorcoran
Closing Credits
When my wife and I moved in together, in 2001, we combined our CD collections, a standard ritual of turn-of-the-millennium cohabitation. As teenagers in the early ’90s, we had very different musical taste. I was into hard rock and guitar pyrotechnics (surprisingly little of which has made it into this section of the newsletter thus far; I should remedy that). She preferred moodier college rock and goth rock. For old-school MTV viewers: She was 120 Minutes; I was glam-era Headbangers Ball. As a result, we didn’t have much overlap when we combined our collections, just some of the more middle-of-the-road stuff (Sports, Pocket Full of Kryptonite, Storm Front, Nevermind, that might have been it). In subsequent years, when MP3s replaced CDs, I ripped all of our music into one sprawling digital amalgamation and attempted to fit as much of it as possible on my fifth-generation iPod. As a result, I finally spent some time listening to her music, and while I found some appreciation for bands like the Smiths, the Cure, and My Bloody Valentine, the band I liked most from her side of the divide was a Welch quartet called the Darling Buds.
After grunge killed hair metal, I gravitated toward power-pop for my guitar-plus-hooks fix. Matthew Sweet, for example, quickly became a favorite, and the Darling Buds do a great job of scratching that particular itch. Formed in 1986, the Darling Buds made just three records in a five year span (1988 to ’92), and my wife has all of them. The song that brings them to mind today arrives late on their debut Pop Said . . .. The song is “Spin,” and while it’s nothing special, it’s both a good example of their hooky, guitar-forward power-pop sound, and it ties into our discussion of fastball spin rates.
In your face I can see that there’s nothing
Does that mean you don't want to know
I feel kind of funny, I’m shaking
And my head starts to spin once again
You can spin with me
You can spin and you will see
Spin with me!
The Cycle will return next week with my Best of Everything preview of the season on Monday and preview and recap coverage of Opening Day in two subsequent issues.
Opening Day! Next week!
Subscribe!
Gift!
Share!
Spin!