The Cycle, Spoke #7: What to Watch, Week 3
As the unbeaten Rays streak into Week 3, here's a look at their upcoming games, some other top performers, and what's worth watching in MLB this upcoming week.
The big story in baseball right now is, quite obviously, the Tampa Bay Rays, who increased their season-opening winning streak to 12 games Wednesday night and could tie the modern record for consecutive wins to open a season with a victory over the Red Sox this afternoon. The record of 13 straight wins to begin a season (at least since the creation of the American League in 1901) was set by Joe Torre’s 1982 Braves and tied by the 1987 Brewers, the former of whom were swept in the National League Championship Series, and the latter of whom finished in third place, seven games out in their division.
The Rays’ streak has come against weak opponents—the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and now the Red Sox, all of them currently in last place in their divisions with a good chance to finish there, as well—but they haven’t just been winning, they’ve been dominating. The Rays’ run differential through their first 12 games is +65, which broke the record (set by four teams, most recently the 1974 Dodgers) by 15 runs (or 30 percent). On the season, they have averaged 7.7 runs scored per game (easily leading the majors by more than a run and a half) and allowed just 2.25 runs per game (again best in the majors, by nearly half a run).
So, this is a historic streak by any measure, and it, at least temporarily, renders my What to Watch recommendations (even more?) moot. The plan, starting at 1:10 pm ET today, should be to watch the Rays until they finally lose a game, and possibly longer. Tomorrow, the Rays move on from the Red Sox to play the first good team they’ve played all season, the second-place, division-rival Blue Jays, in what will be just the second road series the Rays have played this season. So, even if they lose this afternoon, that series will still headline the weekend.
Before I get into the schedule, I wanted to highlight a few individual game performances from the last week. On Tuesday, Luis Arraez became the first player in Marlins history to hit for the cycle, going 4-for-5 with the requisite four types of hits. As we discussed last week, there have already been a handful of single-game hitting performances better than that, led by Adam Duvall’s 13 total bases against the Orioles on April 1, but Arraez’s performance was notable, and the Marlins were the last franchise to have never had a player hit for the cycle, for whatever that’s worth.
That same night, Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle drove in nine runs in the O’s 12–8 win over the A’s, setting a new single-game high for the young season. Mountcastle drove in a run in all four of his trips to the plate in that game with, in order, a sac fly, an RBI single, a three-run homer, and a grand slam.
Meanwhile, Cardinals rookie right fielder Jordan Walker has hit safely in the first 12 games of his major-league career. The all-time record is 17, but he has already tied the record for players under the age of 21, set by the Philadelphia Athletics’ right fielder Honest Eddie Murphy in 1912. Walker will turn 21 in late May.
On the other side of the ball, Corbin Burnes had the best game score of the last week, falling one shy of Sandy Alcantara’s season-best mark with an 84 score after posting this line against the Diamondbacks:
8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 89 pitches
Three other pitchers also posted game scores above 80 in the last week Here are those three:
83: Drew Rasmussen vs. A’s: 7 IP 1 H, 0 R, 0 K, 8 K, 83 pitches
81: Nick Lodolo vs. Phillies: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB*, 12 K, 106 pitches
81: Zac Gallen vs. Brewers: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K, 96 pitches
*Note that one of Lodolo’s two walks was an intentional one ordered by his manager. Following a two-out double, Lodolo walked Trea Turner on command, then struck out Kyle Schwarber on four pitches.
Okay, on with it then
This Weekend
Series to Watch
Rays @ Blue Jays: This series will be the series to watch for at least one of two reasons. The most obvious is that, if the Rays beat the Red Sox today, they’ll enter this three-game weekend set with a chance to set the record for a season-opening win streak.
However, even if the Rays lose to Boston this afternoon, this series will see a 12–1 Rays team face their first real challenge of the season in a Blue Jays team that is entering Thursday’s action in second place in the Rays’ division, at 8–4, and bested Tampa Bay by six games in last year’s standings. This series will thus be the first real test for the team that has by far the best record in the majors in the early going, and it comes with divisional intrigue and will conclude on Sunday with a compelling matchup of 2022 Cy Young candidates Shane McClanahan (who finished sixth and is off to a great start) and Alek Manoah (who finished third). If not for a particularly good pitching matchup on Sunday (see below) I’d end this section right here.
Rangers @ Astros: The Astros and Mariners are both off to slow starts, so the Rangers and Angels will pull into the weekend tied for first in the AL West with matching 7–5 records. However, the Rangers just lost Corey Seager for at least a month to a strained hamstring. Can the Rangers take advantage of Houston’s downturn to pad that early lead in this three-game set, or will the Astros right the ship against their intrastate rivals and emerge from the weekend back ahead of the wannabe Rangers?
Brewers @ Padres: This series and the next are four-game sets that start tonight. The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central at 8–4. The Padres are in second place in the NL West at 7–6. There’s no divisional intrigue happening here, these are just two talented contenders (with good uniforms) going at it.
Twins @ Yankees: Similar story here: a four-game set staring tonight between a pair of 8–4 teams, the AL Central-leading Twins and the Yankees, who enter today’s action tied with the Blue Jays for second place in the AL East. This one, however, contains the one must-watch game of the weekend that doesn’t involve the Rays: Pablo López vs. Gerrit Cole on Sunday afternoon.
Thursday, April 13
Red Sox @ Rays, Corey Kluber vs. Jeffrey Springs, 1:10 pm ET, MLBN
The Rays attempt to tie the 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers for the longest winning streak to open a season since the creation of the American League in 1901. The matchup is favorable for Tampa Bay. Springs has been dominant thus far this season, throwing 13 scoreless innings in his two starts while striking out 19 and allowing just seven baserunners. Kluber, who led the Rays in starts last year, was roughed up by the Orioles in his first outing but was better against the Pirates his last time out. As a team, of course, the Rays are as hot as can be.
Friday, April 14
Rays @ Blue Jays, Drew Rasmussen vs. José Berríos, 7:07 pm ET
If the Rays win on Thursday, this is the obvious choice for Friday, as they’d have a chance to break the record.
If not, it’s still the game to watch for the reasons laid out above. How will the Rays respond to their first loss and their first confrontation with a very good team?
Rasmussen’s performance thus far has mirrored Springs’: 13 scoreless innings over two starts, 15 strikeouts, but bests Springs’ in that it has included no walks and just three hits (!). I’m curious to see how Rasmussen fares against the powerful Jays’ lineup, but he posted a 2.70 ERA in five starts against Toronto last year, so I’m not terribly concerned. Meanwhile, José Berríos has returned from his awful 2022 season only to be even worse in the early going, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) on 15 hits in just 9 2/3 innings through two starts. His peripherals have been solid (12 strikeouts, 4.00 K/BB, just one home run allowed), but he has been hit hard, with six of those 15 hits going for extra bases and his exit velocity against and hard-hit rates above his career highs. That suggests the Blue Jays won’t be as big a test for the Rays as we might think, at least not in this game, but it should still be worth watching.
Skeptics might enjoy Tyler Mahle vs. Nestor Cortes in the Bronx at 7:05 pm ET, Martín Pérez vs. Luis Garcia in Houston at 8:10 pm ET on MLB Network, or Freddy Peralta vs. Michael Wacha in San Diego at 9:40 pm ET.
Saturday, April 15
Rays @ Blue Jays, Josh Fleming vs. Yusei Kikuchi, 3:07 pm ET
Again, if the streak is still going, this one’s obvious. If not, this pairing of lefty hurlers might be a fairer fight for Toronto than Friday’s matchup. Fleming is in italics above because this is his day to pitch, but the last time around the Rays used an opener for him, so he may not technically be the starter. Fleming got the assist of an opener (Jalen Beeks in that case) because he was roughed up in his first proper start against the lowly Nationals. Following Beeks, Fleming allowed just one hit in four scoreless innings against Boston. Kikuchi was good in his first start against the Royals and bad in his second against the Angels, but he handled the Rays well last year (2.45 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance), so this isn’t as unfavorable a matchup for him as it might seem. If you stayed away from Friday’s game because of the apparent pitching mismatch, make this the one Rays–Jays game you watch this weekend.
Sunday, April 16
Pablo López vs. Gerrit Cole, Twins @ Yankees, 1:35 pm ET
By this point the Rays are either 15–0 or have suffered their first loss. Either way the record business has been settled and you can divert your attention to this elite pitching matchup. We didn’t wind up getting Cole vs. Shane Bieber last week, but this one is official. Cole has been great thus far, posting a 1.40 ERA across three quality starts with 22 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings and, particularly notable after he led the AL in home runs allowed last year with 33, no home runs allowed. López has allowed one home run but has otherwise been even better, with a 1.35 ERA in a major-league leading 20 innings with 26 strikeouts and a 5.20 K/BB. López completed seven innings in each of his last two starts with 18 strikeouts against two walks in 14 2/3 innings in those outings. In his last turn, against the White Sox (a game I watched), the first four men he faced reached base, two of them scoring. The then retired 23 in a row, and could have kept going as he had just 98 pitches when he was pulled with two outs in the eighth. I cannot wait to see these two face off in the Bronx on Sunday. If I didn’t have my own game to play in (Opening Day in my old-man baseball league!), I’d be looking up ticket prices right now.
Next Week
Series to Watch
Atlanta @ Padres: Believe it or not, this three-game set (Monday through Wednesday) concludes the season series between these two teams, though there’s a decent chance they could meet again in the postseason. San Diego took three of four from Atlanta last weekend, with Atlanta’s only win coming via a walk-off in a 7–6 game (which I watched), but those three Padres wins represent all but one of Atlanta’s loses on the season (as of this writing).
Mets @ Dodgers: Too bad this series isn’t happening in New York on Jackie Robinson Day (which is this Saturday). Instead, we get three in L.A. soon after. As I type this, both teams are 7–6 and in second place in their divisions. Pitching matchups are TBD, but Kodai Senga vs. Noah Syndergaard, the projected matchup in Wednesday afternoon’s finale, has a lot of appeal.
Blue Jays @ Astros: You’ve likely noticed by now that next week doesn’t have much intradivisional intrigue. Still, a matchup of expected contenders is always worth watching, and its possible the fortunes of these two teams may have leveled out some with the Astros coming off the Rangers series and the Jays coming off their showdown with the Rays. Kevin Guasman vs. Cristian Javier in Monday’s opener on ESPN is the one to watch.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals: The Cardinals got roughed by Atlanta and Milwaukee (combined 1–5 against those two, 4–2 against their other opponents—the Jays and Rockies—thus far) and are looking to right the ship this weekend by hosting the Pirates for four games then welcoming he Diamondbacks, who are currently in first place in the West, but with a negative run differential. This three-game set will be a good test for Paul Goldschmidt’s two teams. Catch one (or both) of the first two games; Wednesday’s likely pitching matchup (Madison Bumgarner vs. Jake Woodford) is the dud of the set.
Brewers @ Mariners: Two teams that came into existence in the 1970s and have combined for zero World Series championships but hope for contention this year play three in Seattle. See Corbin Burnes face Julio Rodríguez and the rejuvenated Jarred Kelenic on Monday. See Logan Gilbert against Milwaukee’s compelling rookies Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Joey Wiemer on Tuesday. See Kolten Wong and Jesse Winker face their old teams. See how long the Brewers can hold on to first place in their division and if the Mariners can follow Houston back up the standings after a poor start.
Monday, April 17
Monday also offers Shohei Ohtani vs. Chris Sale in Boston in the Patriot’s Day game at 11:10 am ET, which is 8:10 am for the Angels fans back home. I’d rather the one I mentioned above:
Kevin Gausman vs. Cristian Javier, Blue Jays @ Astros, 8:10 pm ET, ESPN
Gausman has been great through three starts, tying Pablo López with 20 innings and a 1.35 ERA and besting him with an 8.33 K/BB. Javier hasn’t been as sharp, but he does have 14 strikeouts against just two walks on the season and has been in the vicinity of a quality start every time out thus far (an inning short in his first start, one run too many in his third). This is a Game 1 playoff matchup we could very well see in October.
Tuesday, April 18
Will you be sick of the Rays by this point? If not, the best projected pitching matchup is this:
Jeffrey Springs vs. Nick Lodolo, Rays @ Reds, 6:40 pm ET
I talked about both pitchers above. Springs hasn’t allowed a run through two starts. Lodolo turned in one of the best starts of the season his last time out. Both will start today (Thursday) before this game comes around, so adjust as necessary based on those performances, but this is one way to force a Reds game onto your schedule. They’re in the third of the league I haven’t watched yet.
Wednesday, April 19
Kodai Senga vs. Noah Syndergaard, Mets @ Dodgers, 3:10 pm ET
Mets Rotation Present vs. Mets Rotation Past in this matchup a former outerborough team and team that replaced it. That’ll work. Senga has been excellent in his first two major-league starts (1.59 ERA, 14 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings, both Mets wins). Syndergaard was sharp in his first start for the Dodgers, but was roughed up in his next turn. Interestingly, both starts came against the Diamondbacks. Did figure Syndergaard out? Might the Mets’ scouts have done the same, or will the Mets’ unfamiliarity with Syndergaard work in his benefit (ditto the D’backs with Senga). This will be Syndergaard’s first time pitching against his old team. I just so, so wish this game was in Queens.
Long distance dedication to the Rays’ hot start: