The Cycle, Spoke #5: What To Watch, Week 1
A viewer's guide to the remainder of Opening Weekend and next week's series.
So, how’d you make out on Opening Day?
I’m very happy with my choices. In the one-o’clock slot, I watched Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb combine to strikeout 23 hitters , Aaron Judge homer 422 feet to dead center on the second pitch he saw on the season, Anthony Volpe draw a walk and steal a base in (and after) his first major-league plate appearance, and Gleyber Torres hit a two-run homer, then draw a walk, steal a base, and score another run.
In the four-o’clock hour, I chose the Mets and Marlins over the Phillies and Rangers and got a 5–3 game in which both starters went well into the sixth inning instead of an 11–7 game in which both were knocked out in the fourth.
The featured seven-o’clock game was a good one, with Dylan Cease dominating for the White Sox (6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K), and Framber Valdez and the Astros’ bullpen matching him zero-for-zero until the seventh inning. Then a little back-and-forth action before the final out of the Chicago’s 3–2 win was recorded with the tying run on base in the bottom of the ninth.
Finally, I went Guardians–Mariners (with the Cleveland broadcast) over Diamondbacks–Dodgers in the nightcap. Instead of the lopsided 8–2 contest in L.A., I got an excellent six-inning pitchers’ duel between Shane Bieber (who gave up one hit in each inning but no runs) and Luis Castillo (who allowed just one hit and also no runs in his six frames) in a game the Mariners deservedly won 3–0 on an eighth-inning homer by Ty France.
Today, there are just six games on the schedule, and I plan to get my D’backs–Dodgers in at 10:10 pm, but the reason I’m back here so quickly is I wanted to complete my Opening Weekend viewer’s guide with a look at what remains of the Opening Series as well as what the schedule offers next week (through Wednesday’s games).
I should mention here that one of my primary motivations for cranking The Cycle back up is to do this sort of viewer’s-guide preview stuff (as much to allow me to organize my own thoughts about the upcoming schedule as anything else). I don’t know if anyone else is interested in that, but that’s why this newsletter is now free. I’m sure I’ll have some other things to say along the way, but for now, the mere existence of games remains the headline. So, let’s get to it.
*Note that all national broadcasts are subject to local blackouts and regional alternates so I can’t guarantee that the listed network will be carrying the listed game in your market.
Opening Weekend
Series to Watch
As I mentioned in my Opening Day preview, there aren’t any Opening Day/Weekend matchups this year that are all that exciting on their face. No matchups of likely division battles (Mets–Braves, Dodgers–Padres, Astros–Mariners, Yankees–Blue Jays, Cardinals–Brewers, etc.), nor of traditional rivals (Yankees–Red Sox, Giants–Dodgers, Cardinals–Cubs etc.). The best intra-division matchup is Diamondbacks @ Dodgers, with Brewers @ Cubs the runner-up, and Orioles @ Red Sox a distant third. There aren’t even any matchups of clear pennant favorites. The best you can do there is Blue Jays @ Cardinals, and White Sox @ Astros, and Guardians @ Mariners. It’s all a little squishy.
I’ve discovered that I really enjoy watching the entirety of a series, rather than picking out individual games and jumping around every night, but for this initial weekend, I think the best strategy might be to maximize the number of teams you can put your eyeballs on to start the season, then shift to the series-by-series plan when something better comes along. Having watched four games yesterday, if I just watch one game each day from a different series today through Sunday, I’ll have seen almost half the league (14 teams) play by time the season is just four days old. So, here are some thoughts on the games on offer today through Sunday:
Friday, March 31
Pitching Matchup of the Day
Lance Lynn vs. Cristian Javier, White Sox @ Astros, 8:10 pm ET, MLBN*
The 26-year-old Javier emerged as one of the Astros’ top starters last year, posting a 2.54 ERA (152 ERA+) in 25 starts and five relief appearances, striking out 33.2 percent of the batters he faced, and throwing 11 1/3 scoreless innings in his two postseason starts while striking out 14 and allowing just one hit (and, yes, he threw 13 of the 18 innings in the Astros’ two combined no-hitters last year, the second one coming in the World Series).
Lynn, who will turn 36 in May, had an off year last year following a knee injury, but he finished in the top six in the Cy Young voting in each of the three seasons before that, he finished last year strong (2.43 ERA and an 8.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final dozen starts), and he was sharp in the World Baseball Classic. The first game of this series on Opening Day was a good one. You could certainly do worse than to settle down and finish out the series with this matchup followed by Lucas Giolito and Jose Urquidy on Saturday at 1:10 pm, and Mike Clevinger and Luis Garcia on Sunday.
The Two-Game Plan
Mets @ Marlins (David Peterson vs. Jesús Luzardo), 6:40 pm ET, MLBN*
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers (Merrill Kelly vs. Dustin May), 10:10 pm ET
If you’re only going to watch one game, either make it White Sox–Astros or chose one involving teams you didn’t see on Thursday. However, if you want to maximize your baseball, you can get two games in if you start with Mets @ Marlins at 6:40 pm. That game should be over in time for you to pick one of the two 10 pm games. The one not listed above is Game 2 of the Guardians–Mariners series, but Triston McKenzie’s teres major strain has swapped out Mr. Sticks for burly rookie Hunter Gaddis, who was lit up in his first two major-league starts last year. So, go with Diamondbacks @ Dodgers.
Tonight’s game is be the first Arizona will play against a right-handed starter this season, which hopefully means Alek Thomas, who sat against Julio Urías on Opening Day, will be in there alongside fellow youngsters Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy . . . and righty-hitting catcher Gabriel Moreno, of course. Also watch it to see the ridiculous movement on Dustin May’s pitches. May is (hopefully) finally back to full strength after his May 2021 Tommy John surgery (he wasn’t all the way back in his six starts late last year). When he’s on, Big Red is a thrill to watch, and I’m anxious to see if he is indeed on (and, if so, what the young D’backs hitters can do against him).
Saturday, April 1
There are some notable season debuts among the pitching matchups on Saturday. Most significantly, A’s righty Shintaro Fujinami will make his major-league debut against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels at 4:07 pm ET. Tune in to see if he can find the strike zone (his control was an issue in Japan, and he walked 17 in 18 2/3 innings in Spring Training). Or don’t.
We also get Spencer Turnbull’s return from Tommy John surgery, his first start since early June 2021. He’ll do that against Zach Eflin’s Rays debut at 4:10 pm ET. Chris Sale, who threw just 5 2/3 major-league innings last year, looks to finally get back on the beam after what has really been three lost seasons in a row (though he did make his presence felt in the 2021 postseason). He’ll do that against Dean Kremer and the Orioles at 4:10 pm ET. Jack Flaherty is in a similar position coming off a season of just 36 innings for the Cardinals last year and just 23 starts in the last two years combined. He’ll face Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays at 2:15 pm ET.
Elsewhere, 43-year-old Rich Hill will drag himself back up onto a mound for his Pirates debut to face sophomore Nick Lodolo and the Reds at 4:10 pm ET, while old (but not as old as Hill) foes Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw will face off in the Diamondbacks–Dodgers game at 9:10 pm ET. If none of that grabs you enough to make you want to tune in, this might be the day to give Phillies–Rangers another chance:
Pitching Matchup of the Day
Zack Wheeler vs. Nathan Eovaldi, Phillies @ Rangers, 4:05 pm ET, FOX*
Wheeler finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2021 and, over the last three years, has posted a 2.82 ERA (149 ERA+) and 4.82 K/BB. Eovaldi, who will be making his Rangers debut, finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2021 and has a 5.65 K/BB over the last three seasons. I don’t think Eovaldi is much more than a number-two starter, if that, even on a team without Jacob deGrom, but Texas has made him a prominent part of their rotation rebuild, and Wheeler is legitimately one of the best pitchers in the game.
Sunday, April 2
The single most compelling debut on Sunday will be Kodai Senga’s major-league debut for the Mets against Trevor Rogers and the Marlins at 1:40 pm ET. In second place, by a considerable distance, will be ex-Met Noah Syndergaard’s Dodgers debut against Zach Davies and the Diamondbacks at 4:10 pm ET. (There’s an outside chance you could catch both, now that we’re in the pitch-clock era, but you would probably still need to DVR-delay the second a bit.) Also, Braves lefty Jared Shuster, a changeup specialist but not an elite prospect, will be making his major-league debut against the Nationals’ prospect-reclamation project MacKenzie Gore at 1:35 pm ET. However, my pick for what’s likely to be the best game is this:
Game of the Day:
Chris Bassitt vs. Jordan Montgomery, Blue Jays @ Cardinals, 2:15 pm ET
Bassitt is a sneaky stud. He has a 3.29 ERA (125 ERA+) in 593 2/3 innings over the last five seasons. Only 14 pitchers have posted an ERA+ higher than that in at least 500 innings over that span, and they’re all big names. Bassitt slips in right between Zack Wheeler and Blake Snell on that list. Montgomery, meanwhile, has bested a 110 ERA+ in each of his three full-length, healthy seasons (2017, 2021, and 2022), and seems to be continuing to improve despite turning 30 in December, with his 2022 besting his 2021, and his performance after the 2022 deadline deal that sent him to the Cardinals besting his showing in the first part of the season with New York.
Given that every team will have burned off its top two starters, at least, by Sunday, this is a strong matchup for the fourth day of the regular season. Also, don’t forget that this game will likely feature defending NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Matt Carpenter, top Cardinals prospect Jordan Walker, etc.
Next Week
Series to Watch
The first full week of the 2023 Major League Baseball season starts with a full slate of games on Monday. Of the 15 new series that start on Monday, these five are the most interesting, all of them three-game sets wrapping up on Wednesday:
Atlanta @ St. Louis: This is the defending NL East and NL Central champions, who are favored to win their divisions again this year.
Phillies @ Yankees: Here we have the defending NL pennant winners against the defending AL East champions with some regional intrigue. There’s real brother-versus-brother potential in central Jersey with this matchup.
Mets @ Brewers: The undercard to the Atlanta–St. Louis series, with the two top challengers in the NL East and Central facing off, this includes the Brewers’ home opener on Monday.
Diamondbacks @ Padres: The D’backs open a season that they hope will represent a big step back toward contention by taking on the top two teams in their division, first with four against the Dodgers this weekend (of which they lost the first on Opening Day), then these three against the Padres. We won’t know everything about this year’s Diamondbacks by Thursday morning, but we may know more about the D’backs and their potential this season that we will about any other team a mere seven games into this season.
Angles @ Mariners: The Angels had a better-than-expected offseason and entered the 2023 regular season with their Big Three and their offseason additions healthy. So, after opening against the rebuilding A’s, this is the first real test of whether or not anything will be different in Anaheim this year.
Notable Pitching Matchups
Note that while the majority of Monday’s probable pitchers have been announced, about a third of them haven’t, and since teams haven’t established their full rotations yet, it’s difficult to project who will make those starts or to project things further into the week. Thus, pitchers in italics below are little more than best guesses as to who will start in the listed game.
Monday, April 3
Carlos Carrasco vs. Freddy Peralta, Mets @ Brewers, 2:10 pm ET, MLBN*
Taijuan Walker vs. Nestor Cortes, Phillies @ Yankees, 7:05 pm ET, MLBN*
Watch both games, if you have time, but I think I might prefer Walker vs. Cortes, both because of Cortes’s entertaining unpredictability on the mound, and to see Walker’s first start after the Phillies signed him to a four-year, $72-million contract that was widely regarded as a overpay. Then again, the early game is the Brewers’ home opener, one of two on Monday, joining the White Sox, who host the Giants at 4:10 pm ET.
Speaking of entertaining unpredictability, Johnny Cueto will make his Marlins debut on Monday against Tyler Mahle and the Twins at 6:40 pm ET. Also José Berríos attempts to bounce back from a dismal 2022 starting with his debut on Monday against the Royals and their ace Brady Singer at 7:40 pm ET.
Tuesday, April 4
Zac Gallen vs. Yu Darvish, Diamondbacks @ Padres, 4:10 pm ET, MLBN*
ESPN has this matchup on the schedule, but it’s not official, per MLB.com. Darvish is the larger uncertainty, as this would be his season debut. Gallen will be on-turn after his disappointing Opening Day game against the Dodgers. Gallen wasn’t as bad as his final line in that game (4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 7 K), things just got away from him in the fifth inning. Through four, his line was: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K and the game was tied 2–2. Arizona ultimately lost 8–2.
One pitcher who is on the schedule for Tuesday is the Twins Kenta Maeda, who will make his first start since having UCL internal-brace surgery in September 2021. His likely opponent (in Miami at 6:40 pm ET) is defending NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara, who was uncharacteristically wild on Opening Day against the Mets, but didn’t allow an extra-base hit and came one out shy of a quality start.
Wednesday, April 5
Pablo López vs. Jesús Luzardo, Twins @ Marlins, 1:10 pm ET
Shohei Ohtani vs. Robbie Ray, Angels @ Mariners, 4:10 pm ET, MLBN*
None of these four pitchers is on the official schedule yet, but they’ll all be on-turn on Wednesday. The early game pits López against his former team and rotation-mate. López is coming off a strong debut for the Twins in a winning effort on Opening Day (5 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K). López should face the man he was traded for, Marlins second baseman and leadoff hitter Luis Arraez, to start the bottom of the first inning of that game. Arraez, for what it’s worth, went 2-for-4 with a double, an RBI, and a run scored on Opening Day (albeit in a Miami loss).
The late game is a much better showcase for Ohtani than Opening Day against the A’s, when “Tungsten Arm” O’Doyle struck again (Ohtani: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 10 K; 1-for-3, BB; A’s win 2–1). Ray isn’t likely to ever challenge for a Cy Young award again, but he’s a solid three-true-outcomes innings eater who kept his walks under control last year despite his overall regression to league average.
Getting even more speculative, with the rotations turning over somewhere around Tuesday and Wednesday, there’s an outside chance that Wednesday afternoon could give us Aaron Nola vs. Gerrit Cole in the finale in the Bronx at 1:05 pm ET and/or Logan Webb vs. Dylan Cease on the South Side at 2:10 pm. Jacob deGrom is also likely to make his second start of the season, against the Orioles at 2:05 pm. Nola and deGrom are both looking to bounce back from rough Opening Day starts, while Cole and Webb are looking to build on their excellent Opening Day outings.
I hope to be back in your inbox next Thursday morning (and around that time on a weekly basis) to preview each week’s upcoming action, but I’m not making any promises.
Roll credits!