The Cycle, Issue 99: ALCS Preview
Previewing the Red Sox’s and Astros’ battle for the American League pennant
In this issue of the The Cycle . . .
Today’s issue is all about the ALCS matchup and the recent history of the Astros and Red Sox.
American League Championship Series
Boston Red Sox (92-70) @ Houston Astros (95-67)
Schedule
Games in italics if necessary
The Season Series
The Red Sox and Astros met for seven games in quick succession in early June, four in Houston to start the month and three in Boston the next week, and it was all Astros. Houston won the first three of the four-game set in Texas by a combined score of 18–4, then the first two of the three-game set in Massachusetts by a combined score of 15–4. Even after the Sox pulled out the final game of each series, to make the final tally 5-2 Astros, Houston had still outscored Boston 42–25. June, it should be noted, was the Red Sox’s best month of the season.
Starting Rotations
Only the first two games’ starting pitchers have been announced as of this writing, and there are significant questions about what will follow for the Astros, but let’s dig in with what we know.
Boston Red Sox:
I’m surprised to see the Red Sox giving Chris Sale the Game 1 start over Nathan Eovaldi, who would have been on regular rest for tonight’s opener. Eovaldi has been far and away their best pitcher this season, could finish as high as third in the Cy Young voting, has a 1.93 ERA in 32 2/3 postseason innings for Boston, and has been excellent in both of his starts thus far this postseason, allowing just three runs in 10 1/3 innings while striking out 16 against just one walk.
Digging in a little, I think the motivation, beyond giving Eovaldi an extra day of rest and assuming that Sale and Eovaldi will wind up making two starts each regardless of who pitches first, is Sale’s home/road splits. Eovaldi has pitched better at home this season, but his ERA split is 3.47 at home and 4.21 on the road. Sale’s is 2.48 at home and 4.61 on the road. That’s in a relatively tiny sample, just six games at home and three on the road, but since 2016, Sale has a 6.38 ERA in four starts in Houston, including Game 1 of the 2017 ALCS. Starting Game 1 in Houston allows Sale to make his second start at Fenway in Game 5, while Eovaldi will get Games 2 and 6, both in Texas. The extra day of rest for Eovaldi is just a bonus. Still, the decision to start Sale ahead of Eovaldi will be heavily second guessed if the Astros win this series in five games, preventing Eovaldi from making a second start.