The Cycle, Issue 133: Put it in Play
Checking in on the Cy Young award races, the dead ball, and the impact of the sticky-stuff crackdown, plus that crazy Mets-Giants game, a viewer's guide to Week 8, and more . . .
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
Did You See That? Checking in on the season’s trends and finding a surprising amount of good news, plus that wild Mets-Giants game
On Deck: A viewer’s guide to Week 8
Awards Watch: An early look at the Cy Young races
Feedback
Closing Credits
Did You See That?
May’s Trends
Before I get to the standout individual performances from the last week, I wanted to take a moment to check in on some of the larger trends of the season. In Issue 128 on April 22, I noted that, while slugging and, thus, run scoring were down relative to last year, bating average and on-base percentage were nearly exact matches for the previous April. So, now that May is nearly over, how has this month compared to last May? First, here are the final numbers on April (with March included in the April 2021 split):
Now here’s May:
As you can see, slugging and run scoring have come up much closer to last year’s levels (though they still lag a tiny bit), so continued discussion of this year’s dead ball may prove to be moot, at least for now. However, a far more interesting thing is happening with the leaguewide strikeout rate. It was down a little in April and it is down even further in May. Last year, the strikeout rate did not increase for the first time since 2005, but it was still higher than every other year in baseball history other than 2020, and thus higher than every full season in major-league history. The last full season in which the leaguewide strikeout rate did not set an all-time record was 2007.
Thus far in 2022, the overall K-rate is 22.5 percent of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. If that holds, it will be the lowest strikeout rate in the majors since 2018, and, as the tables above show, that rate has been trending downward as we get deeper into the season. I don’t want to get too excited here (as I have written many times, I believe escalating strikeout rates are MLB’s biggest problem), but it seems as though the sticky-stuff crackdown may indeed be having its intended impact.
If that’s the case, if we can trace the drop in strikeouts to the crackdown on pitchers using sticky substances to get a better grip (and thus more spin) on the ball—and given that this trend began last season, when the crackdown did as well, I think we can, though it certainly merits closer study—what about the pitchers’ complaints/fears about the impact that will have on their control? Well, to begin with, the rate of batters getting hit by pitches is down to its lowest level since 2017 (1.03 percent, down from 1.16 percent last year and 1.23 percent in 2020). Also, walk rates are down as well, even if only slightly, to 8.5 percent from 8.7 percent last year and 9.2 percent in 2020.
The upshot of all of that is that all three three-true-outcome rates are down in the early going this year, thus we are seeing more balls in play than we have in any of the last three seasons. The rate of balls in play is still lower than any season prior to 2019, but that trend line has finally been reversed, though it remains to be seen if any of these trends are able to persist through the hot summer months.