The Cycle, Issue 130: Ferry Tale Beginning
Kelsie Whitmore integrates the Atlantic League, the return of the Explanatory Wins standings, the Mets' no-no, plus highlights from the last week, a viewer's guide to Week 5, and more . . .
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
Did You See That? The Mets’ no-hitter, Dylan Cease’s dominance, the hottest and coldest bats of the last week, and other news around the league, featuring Robinson Canó and a certain former Dodgers pitcher.
On Deck: A viewer’s guide to Week 5.
Explanatory Wins Standings
The National Pastime: Kelsie Whitmore integrates the Atlantic League
Feedback
Closing Credits
Did You See That?
This was a slightly shortened week due to the bulk of this week’s series turning over on Thursday rather than Friday, so we only have six days to review, and they weren’t the most thrilling six days of the still-young season. There was no real standout single-game hitting performances. Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber cracking two homers and a single in a lopsided loss to the Mets on Sunday and drawing a couple of inside pitches in the ninth, resulting in Mets reliever Yoan Lopez getting a punitive suspension, was the closest we came.
The Mets were the single-game standouts on the other side of the ball, turning in the season’s first official no-hitter last Friday. That no-hitter, a five-pitcher combined no-no started by 26-year-old breakout performer Tylor Megill, was also just the second in Mets history, though one can quibble with both distinctions.
Remember, the Rays held the Red Sox hitless through the first nine innings of their game on April 23, but failed to score and lost the no-hitter in the tenth. Also, I put a mental asterisk on the first no-hitter in Mets history, pitched by Johan Santana against the Cardinals on June 1, 2012. Cardinals center fielder Carlos Beltran hit a double down the third-base line in the sixth inning of that game, but the ball was ruled foul by third base umpire Adrian Johnson. You can see the ball hit the foul line behind third base on the replay (at about 25 seconds here), but the call wasn’t reviewable, so it went as strike one, and Beltran grounded out to third on the next pitch. The contrast between Santana’s no-hitter (which included a double incorrectly ruled foul) and Armando Galarraga’s 28-out perfect game two years earlier (in which the first-base umpire blew an easy out call on the 27th batter) remain foremost in my mind whenever anyone questions the use of replay review in Major League Baseball.
None of that diminishes the accomplishments of Megill and company last Friday, however. Megill worked five innings, followed by Drew Smith, Joely Rodríguez, Seth Lugo, and Edwin Díaz. The first three pitchers walked six batters, but Lugo and Díaz were perfect, with Díaz, who later said he was the only reliever who entered the game aware that a no-hitter was in progress, striking out Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto to secure the no-no and the 3–0 Mets win.
The best individual pitching performance of the week came from mustachioed White Sox righty Dylan Cease, who held the Angels to just two baserunners, a double and a hit batter, while striking out 11 over seven innings. His game score for that outing, also a 3–0 win, was 86, the third-best of the season behind Walker Buehler’s complete game and Clayton Kershaw’s seven perfect innings.
Over the last six days as a whole, Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez has been the hottest hitter, going 8-for-18 (.444) with two doubles, four homers, and three walks for a 1.746 OPS. The Astros Yordan Alvarez has also been red hot, with four homers and five walks of his own for a 1.430 OPS. On the other side of things, sophomore Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh has undermined his hot start by going 0-for-17 with 13 strikeouts in his last five games, likely making Jo Adell wonder why he was the one who was returned to Triple-A this week. Meanwhile, it seems teams have stopped pitching to José Ramírez, who walked eight times in 24 plate appearances over the last week.
In other news, the entire Yankee roster travelled to Toronto to take two of three from the Blue Jays, ending speculation about Aaron Judge’s vaccination status. Rosters reverted to 26 players (with a maximum of 13 pitchers) on Monday, resulting in a series of cuts, most notably the Mets designating 39-year-old Robinson Canó for assignment. Unrelated to Monday’s roster changes, the Royals and Twins called up hitting prospects MJ Melendez and Jose Miranda, respectively. Miranda, incidentally, is Lin-Manuel’s cousin.
The biggest news, however, may be that MLB finally handed down it’s punishment to Trevor Bauer, suspending him for 324 games, the equivalent of two seasons, effective last Friday, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until after the start of the 2024 season, when he’ll be 33 and his current Dodgers contract, which was effectively voided with this suspension, will have expired. I don’t want to rehash the allegations against Bauer, but it is worth noting that a third accuser came forward during MLB’s investigation and said she would testify in a hearing if Bauer appeals the suspension. I’ll just say that I believe his accusers and that MLB wouldn’t have given him the longest suspension ever under the Joint Domestic Abuse, Sexual Assault, and Child Abuse policy if its investigation hadn’t given the league good reason to do so. I am happy to be rid of him, and I suspect the Dodgers are, as well.
On Deck
This Weekend
Note that all pitching matchups are probable and subject to change.
Series to Watch:
Cardinals @ Giants: Believe it or not, this is the only series of the weekend that will open with both teams sporting a winning record. The Cards and Giants both open this four-game set at 14-10. They also sport the two best run differentials among NL teams not currently in first place. That 14-10 is good for second-place in the Central for St. Louis, but only third in the West for San Francisco. The Giants enter this series hoping a return home will change their fortunes after suffering a quick, two-game sweep in L.A. and losing five of their last six. The Cardinals fattened up on the Royals this week, but dropped five of eight prior to that trip to Kansas City. Still, if the playoffs started today (and, reminder, they are five months away), both of these teams would be participants. To me, this matchup will always be a rematch of the 1987 NLCS. Do you think any of the Giants would be willing to do a one-flap-down home run trot as a tribute? Joc Pederson seems like the most likely candidate.
Marlins @ Padres: Two other series this weekend pit a team currently at .500 against a winning team. You can safely ignore the other, Rockies at Diamondbacks. This set is far more compelling, both because the Padres are legitimately good (unlike the 14-10 Rockies) and because the Marlins are legitimately compelling (unlike the 13-13 Diamondbacks). Miami and San Diego have also both had outstanding starting pitching in the early going, and the final three matchups in this four-game set are all worth catching. After Jesús Luzardo and Nick Martinez face off Thursday night we get Sandy Alcantara against Yu Darvish on Friday, Pablo López against Sean Manaea on Saturday, and Trevor Rogers against Joe Musgrove on Sunday.
Mets @ Phillies: The Phillies enter this four-game set six games behind the first-place Mets having already dropped four of six against New York this season, and separated their series in Queens last weekend from this one in Philly with a pair of losses at home to the Rangers. So maybe shouldn’t be as compelled by this matchup as I am, but it’s early in the season, the Phillies do still have a positive run differential despite their 11-14 record, and . . . okay, fine, live in between these two cities, so maybe I have a little regional bias sprinkled on top. There’s plenty of star power in this series, and the regional rivalry doesn’t hurt. Pitching matchups: Taijuan Walker vs. Aaron Nola; Max Scherzer vs. Kyle Gibson; Chris Bassitt vs. Zach Eflin, and Carlos Carrasco vs. Ranger Suárez.
Brewers @ Braves: Two perennial playoff teams, with the current and defending NL Central leaders against the defending World Series champions. Sure, the Braves are off to another lousy start and their run differential is below water, but we both know they’re better than that. The Brewers, meanwhile, trail only the Dodgers and Yankees in both record and run differential. This one’s just three games, but it offers Corbin Burnes against Max Fried on Saturday. That’s one worth watching. Speaking of . . .
Thursday, May 5
Shohei Ohtani vs. Rich Hill in the 1:35 pm ET finale of the Angels–Red Sox series in Boston is likely to be the most entertaining matchup of the day, but both the Pitching Matchup and Game of the Day is the opener of the Cardinals-Giants series at 9:45 pm ET, which pits Miles Mikolas (1.52 ERA, 6.25 K/BB after five starts with 14 1/3 innings pitched over his last two) against Logan Webb (four quality starts in five turns).
Friday, May 6
Pitching Matchup of the Day
Kevin Gausman vs. Shane Bieber, Blue Jays @ Guardians, 7:10 pm ET
We’re only a sixth of the way through a very long season, but this could be a matchup of Cy Young contenders. Bieber won the award in the shortened 2020 season. Gausman finished sixth in the NL voting last year, and both are off to strong starts.
Game of the Day
Marlins @ Padres, Sandy Alcantara vs. Yu Darvish, 9:40 pm ET
Darvish’s season thus far has consisted of four quality starts and one total disaster, but three of the quality starts have come since the disaster, and it could be argued that, on the whole, he has out-pitched Alcantara on the season, despite his higher ERA. Guardians fans could make an argument that their 11-13 team, which has a higher run differential than the 12-12 Marlins, is more compelling than Miami’s and that the Gausman-Bieber matchup should also be the Game of the day. I’m not sold, however. I say, let the Fish have their day in the sun before they start to rot.
Saturday, May 7
Pitching Matchup and Game of the Day
Corbin Burnes vs. Max Fried, Brewers @ Braves, 7:20 pm ET
Both of these pitchers needed another week or two of Spring Training, but in his last three starts, Fried is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA, and the only walk he has issued all year came in the third inning on Opening Day. Burnes, meanwhile, has a 1.30 ERA over his last four starts with 39 strikeouts against four walks in 27 2/3 innings. That works out to a 39 percent strikeout rate over those four starts (he faced exactly 100 batters in those games) and a 9.75 K/BB. Burnes, the defending NL Cy Young award winner, has racked up at least 6 2/3 inning pitched and 8 strikeouts in each of his last four starts and has an active streak of three straight double-digit strikeout games.
Sunday, May 8
Pitching Matchup of the Day
Walker Buehler vs. Marcus Stroman, Dodgers @ Cubs, 7:08 pm ET, ESPN
Buehler has an active 14-inning scoreless streak that includes the only complete game thrown by a starting pitcher this season (two turns ago, in Arizona). Stroman has rebounded from a couple of ugly mid-April starts to allow just two earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched and is coming off holding the Brewers scoreless on two hits over seven frames in his last outing and has an eight-inning scoreless streak of his own.
As for the Game of the Day, there’s nothing as compelling as this pitching matchup, but the results between now and Sunday could change that.
Next Week
Series to Watch:
Blue Jays @ Yankees: This is just a quick two-game set in the Bronx on Tuesday and Wednesday, not enough for the Blue Jays to close their current three-game deficit in the loss column, but these are still the top two teams in what is arguably baseball’s toughest division, so any meeting between them is noteworthy. The Jays and Yanks split four games in the Bronx during the season’s first week and the Yankees just took two of three in Toronto this week. From here, the starters project as Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos for the Jays and Jameson Taillon and Nestor Cortes for the Yankees.
Rays @ Angels: Next week’s other matchup of teams currently sporting .600 records pits the current AL West leaders against the defending AL East champions, two teams separated by just a half game in the overall standings heading into this weekend. This three game set appears likely to pit veterans Corey Kluber and Noah Syndergaard against one another on Monday, youngsters Shane McClanahan and Reid Detmers on Tuesday, and should conclude with Shohei Ohtani’s next start, against Josh Fleming, on Wednesday.
Astros @ Twins: Here, again, we have a current division leader, the 15-10 Twins, against a defending division champion, the 14-11 Astros. Houston just swept the division-rival Mariners, dominating them by a 14–2 score in that series, and will have some runway to build momentum for this matchup via four-game weekend set at home against the Tigers. The Twins have an even longer runway, heading into this series off seven games against the Orioles and A’s. This three-game set runs Tuesday through Thursday, and the pitching matchups heavily favor the Astros, particularly Justin Verlander vs. Chris Archer in the middle game.
Guardians @ White Sox: These two AL Central rivals enter this weekend tied in the standings, but 25 runs apart in differential. The weird thing is, it’s the White Sox, the almost universal pick to repeat as division champs, who trail in that latter category with a -18 to Cleveland’s +7. The Sox have been laid low by injuries, but they could get third baseman Yoán Moncada and set-up man Joe Kelly back during this three-game set, and they have won four of their last five, two of those against the first-place Angels, so perhaps things are looking up. Cleveland has also won four of five, but has been extremely streaky all season and has four games against the Blue Jays between now and this set next week. Cal Quantrill vs. Lucas Giolito on Tuesday is the pitching matchup to catch in this set.
Monday, May 9
I hesitate to recommend anyone watch this year’s Reds, but with just nine games on Monday and a lack of compelling pitching matchups, the Brewers-Reds game at 6:40 pm ET offers Luis Castillo’s return from the injured list with Brandon Woodruff on the bump for Milwaukee, though I’d certainly understand if you’d rather take your chances with the veterans Kluber and Syndergaard in Anahim at 9:38 pm ET.
Tuesday, May 10
I’ll take Cal Quantrill vs. Lucas Giolito at 8:10 pm ET on the Southside on Tuesday, though Aaron Nola vs. Robbie Ray in Seattle has its appeal, as well.
Wednesday, May 11
There’s no real standout matchup projected for Wednesday, but that is Shohei Ohtani’s turn in the Angels rotation, so Rays and Halos at 7:07 pm ET is the place to be.
Thursday, May 12
There are just eight games next Thursday, three of them kicking off new series. Gerrit Cole vs. Dallas Keuchel in Chicago is a compelling matchup of former rotation mates and past Cy Young contenders on likely playoff teams, but Keuchel’s Cy Young season feels like part of another career at this point and he has been lousy thus far this season. The best matchup here might be the Phillies’ Zach Eflin vs. Clayton Kershaw at 10:10 pm ET in Los Angeles, but projecting pitching matchups a week out is a bit foolish.
Explanatory Wins Standings
At the start of last season, I introduced a new method of assigning wins and losses, which I called Explanatory Wins. The basic idea is that, to more accurately represent why a team won or lost a given game, rather than forcing a win or loss on a single pitcher, I instead assigned the decision to the starting pitcher, the offense (as a group), or the bullpen (as a group). The methodology is a bit subjective—my decisions are informed by Win Probability Added, but do not adhere strictly to any statistical measure or qualifications—but carefully considered.
The easy decisions are in extremely low- or high-scoring games. If a game ends 11–10, the team that won did so because its lineup outscored the other, and the team that lost did so because it’s pitching couldn’t make 10 runs hold up. Similarly, in a 2–1 game, the team that lost did so because it couldn’t scrape out second run, while the team that won did so because it held the other team to that single tally (deciding between giving the decision to the starter or the bullpen depends on their respective innings pitched and runs allowed, though I do consider what happens with inherited runners if those other factors are close). Close games in which both teams score close the league-average number of runs, say a 5–4 decision, can be tricker, ditto blowouts. Often sequencing matters there. If a team scores seven runs in the first inning and wins 12–2, the lineup gets the win and the opposing starter gets the loss. If they win 12–2 but 10 of their runs came in the last two innings, the pitching gets the win and the opposing lineup gets the loss for failing to do any meaningful damage when the game was close. WPA is most helpful in those 5–4 games, as it’s hard to give any team credit or to dock them for a roughly league-average result. Again, sequencing can matter. Blow a lead late, that’s the bullpen’s loss. Hold the other team down after four early runs, that could be a bullpen win, etc.
For those who want more explanation, I went into more detail on this in Issue 31 last year. For the rest of you, I wanted to present the season-to-date Explanatory Wins standings for all 30 teams, along with the individual Explanatory Wins and Losses Leaders among pitchers. The teams in the table below are listed according to their overall winning percentages (with ties broken by run differential). Bold (black) text are MLB bests. Red text are MLB worsts. T is for total decisions by that unit (lineup, rotation, bullpen). The below is through Wednesday night’s games:
Beyond the individual team results above, it’s worth noting that the distribution between the three categories conforms to that of previous seasons, despite the lower run-scoring environment of the last month and the shorter outings for starting pitchers following the abbreviated Spring Training. Thus far, as is typical for this system, the decisions are distributed evenly between the lineups and the pitching staffs (due to a pitching win typically—but not necessarily—corresponding to the opposing lineup’s loss, and vice versa), while two thirds of the pitching decisions have gone to starting pitchers (reflecting the typical 6/3 distribution of innings in a game), though starters have only thrown about 55 percent of the innings thus far this season (which is corresponds almost exactly to a 5/4 inning split).
Individual Explanatory Wins and Losses Leaders:
Wins:
4-0: Alek Manoah (TOR), Tylor Megill (NYM), Michael Wacha (BOS)
3-0: Dylan Cease (CWS), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Max Fried, Kyle Wright (ATL), Tony Gonsolin (LAD), Brad Keller (KCR)
3-1: Chris Bassitt (NYM), Julio Urías (LAD), Steven Matz (STL)
Losses:
1-3: Dylan Bundy (MIN)
0-3: Josh Fleming (TBR)
0-4: Reiver Sanmartin (CIN)
The National Pastime
Kelsie Whitmore, RHP/OF, Staten Island FerryHawks
The best thing that happened in baseball in the last week, in my opinion, was Kelsie Whitmore starting in left field for the Atlantic League’s Staten Island FerryHawks on Sunday. Technically, Whitmore is the first woman ever to play in a major-league-affiliated league, and while that distinction is a bit of a technicality that overlooks some key pioneers for women in baseball, what Whitmore is doing is no less impressive or important as a result.
As you likely know, the Atlantic League is an independent partner league of MLB, meaning that its teams aren’t part of the minor-league farm system, but that the league has a working relationship with major-league baseball and is often a testing ground for some of the league’s new rules. As such, its not necessarily any closer to the properly affiliated minor leagues or MLB than the independent Northern and Western Leagues, in which Ila Borders spent four years as a pitcher from 1997 to 2000. After all, Darryl Strawberry played 29 games in the Northern League in early 1996 before returning to the Yankees for their championship run that season. It’s certainly not any closer to the major leagues than the Negro American League was in 1953 and 1954, when Toni Stone, Mamie “Peanut” Johnson, and Connie Morgan played for the Indianapolis Clowns. After all, Hank Aaron had played for the Clowns in 1952 before the Braves signed him that June, and Major League Baseball recently recognized the NAL as a major league, though only through 1948. However, the Atlantic League is closer to the majors than former Pacific Association, to which the Sonoma Stompers belonged when Whitmore, Stacy Piagno, and Anna Kimbrell played for them in 2016.
A native of southern California, Whitmore was the only girl on her high school baseball team in Temecula Valley and played on the U.S. national women’s baseball team from 2014 through 2019. She spent parts of the 2016 and ’17 season with the Stompers, at one point pitching to catcher Kimbrell to form the first female battery in a previously all-male professional league. The Stompers were sort of a stop-over between high school and college for Whitmore, however. She went to Cal State Fullerton on a softball scholarship, but she would also train with Fullerton’s baseball team. In October 2021, she joined the Portland Pickles of the West Coast League, a collegiate summer baseball league through which major leaguers such as Nick Madrigal and Keston Hiura have previously passed. Whitmore signed with the FerryHawks in April, and though she actually made her Atlantic League debut as a pinch-runner on April 22, and Sunday was her third game with the team, it was her first start for the team, which drew headlines.
Whitmore, is a switch-hitter who can pitch and play the outfield. She is also 5-foot-6, 130 pounds, will turn 24 in July, has an upper-70s fastball, and did little to impress with the Stompers, going 2-for-26 without an extra-base hit and failing to strike out a batter in three innings on the mound, all spread over two seasons. Of course, that was both a miniscule sample and came seven-to-eight years ago, when Whitmore was a teenager. Whitmore went 0-for-2 with a hit-by-pitch in her start on Sunday and was pinch-hit for before her final plate appearance of the game, but I remain very curious to see what she can do in that league.
The Atlantic League is more often a place to find former, rather than future, major leaguers (Whitmore is the second-youngest player on the FerryHawks). I saw Rickey Henderson play for the Newark Bears in that league in 2003. He was 44, but still Rickey Henderson, and not yet finished in the major leagues. Whitmore’s teammates include Julio Teheran, who was in the Tigers’ rotation last year before suffering a season-ending injury, and her manager is former Mets All-Star Edgardo Alfonzo. Like lefty pitcher Genevieve Beacom of the Melbourne Aces, who became the first woman to play in the Australian Baseball League earlier this year, Whitmore is on the team because she has the ability to play the game at that level. I just hope she gets enough of a chance to show what she really can do. I also hope she inspires enough young girls that I get to see a woman take the field as a player in the major leagues in my lifetime.
As for Whitmore’s long-term future, in the modern game, which includes a female general manager in the major leagues (the Marlins’ Kim Ng), a female manager in the pro-ranks (Rachel Balkovec of the Single-A Tampa Tarpons), and a growing number of women in major-league front offices and on major- and minor-league coaching staffs, I think Whitmore has a real chance to make baseball her career.
Feedback
I want to hear from you. Got a question, a comment, a request? Reply to this issue. Want to interview me on your podcast, send me your book, bake me some cookies? Reply to this issue. I will respond, and if I find your question particularly interesting, I’ll feature it in a future issue.
You can also write me at cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com, or @ me on twitter @CliffCorcoran.
Closing Credits
In honor of Kelsie Whitmore, and in solidarity with the majority of the population, whose basic human rights appear to be on the precipice of being impinged by the nation’s highest court, let’s end today with a howling, stomping, inspirational anthem of defiance from a band with a knack for such things, and one of my personal favorites, Sleater-Kinney. “Step Aside” is one of the inarguable bangers from the trio’s sixth studio album, 2002’s One Beat, which I had the privilege of reviewing for Alternative Press upon its release. The album itself is at times weighed down by the reverberations of the September 11 terrorist attacks (it was recorded in early 2002), but, much like Bruce Springsteen on The Rising, another 2002 album whose tone was altered by that seismic event in American history, Sleater-Kinney had the talent and emotional and intellectual intelligence to write about that event in a meaningful way. Unlike Springsteen, however, they also had sufficient remove, perhaps in part because they are a west-coast band, to widen their scope behind the immediate aftermath of that tragedy.
“Step Aside” isn’t tied to any moment in history. It’s title doubles as a dance floor and a political instruction, and it is very much from the move-their-feet-and-their-minds-will-follow school of musical activism. My daughter says it’s a bop. Corin Tucker brings it home here:
Janet, Carrie, can you feel it?
(Knife through the heart of our exploitation)
Ladies, one time, can you hear it?
(Disassemble your discrimination)
When violence rules the world outside,
And the headlines make me want to cry,
It’s not the time to just keep quiet
Speak up one time to the beat . . .
Below, I’ve included both the album version and a performance of the song from Late Night with Conan O’Brien from October 2002. I’ve included the latter because I absolutely love Sleater-Kinney as a live band (I’ve seen them a handful of times dating back to the All Hands on the Bad One tour, including at Irving Plaza about two weeks before the Conan appearance below), and I’m still not over drummer Janet Weiss leaving the band, so I’ll take any excuse to watch live footage from her time them.
The Cycle will return next Friday. Until then, shake a tail for peace and love.