The Cycle, Issue 126: Opening Day 2022
A viewer's guide to Opening Day and the first week of the 2022 season, full-standings predictions, new faces in new places, Spring Training stats leaders, and more
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
On Deck: A viewer’s guide to Opening Day and the rest of the first week of the 2022 MLB season
Prognostication Station: My picks for how all 30 teams will finish this season
New Duds, Vol. II: Familiar faces in new places, plus two new caps!
Final Spring Training Leaders: A few notable leaders in the least meaningful stats of the year
Feedback
Closing Credits
On Deck
Thursday, April 7: Opening Day
A pair of weather-related postponements has reduced Thursday’s schedule to seven games, but there are still many treasures to be had on Opening Day, chief among them the mere fact that baseball is back, and we have a full 162-game schedule stretched out before us. Well, that and Shohei Ohtani.
The Early Game
Brewers @ Cubs (Corbin Burnes vs. Kyle Hendricks), 2:20 pm ET, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
The Red Sox–Yankees game, which was to kick of the season and be the marquee matchup of Opening Day, has been preemptively postponed to Friday due to a forecast of a better-than-90-percent chance of rain in the Bronx. Watching Corbin Burnes kick off the follow-up season to his Cy Young campaign and Seiya Suzuki make his major-league debut are pretty good consolation prizes, however.
Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe are the new names in the Brewers’ lineup, and the Cubs have a new-look bullpen set to follow Hendricks into the game. Hendricks himself is looking to bounce back from his worst major-league season, but home runs were a major source of his struggles last year, and he allowed six in just 11 1/3 innings this spring. Maybe Hendricks and Christian Yelich can exchange some home-run mojo, as Yelich, looking to rediscover his power stroke after two down seasons, slugged just .333 this spring.
4pm games
Mets @ Nationals (TBA vs. Patrick Corbin), 4:05 pm ET
Guardians @ Royals (Shane Bieber vs. Zack Greinke), 4:10 pm ET, MLB.tv free game of the day
Pirates @ Cardinals (JT Brubaker vs. Adam Wainwright), 4:15 pm ET
Cardinals fans will certainly want to see Adam Wainwright kick off the final season for teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols, the latter returning to his original team for the first time since the 2011 World Series. However, the game to watch here is the Guardians-Royals tilt. In addition to being the first official game in Cleveland Guardians history, it will feature the major-league debut of one of the game’s truly elite prospects, Royals third baseman Bobby Witt Jr., and offers a Cy Young vs. Cy Old pitching matchup of 2020 AL winner Shane Bieber and the 38-year-old Zack Greinke, returning to his original team for the first time since 2010.
After missing roughly half of last year with a subscapularis strain in his right shoulder, Bieber, who was still very good when healthy in 2021, is looking to reestablish himself as a Cy Young contender in the American League. Greinke is 38 and back in a Royals uniform for the first time since his age-26 season. Greinke is always entertaining on the mound, either because of his creativity as a pitcher or the quirks of his personality. Witt, meanwhile, is a five-tool stud who hit .406/.441/.781 with three homers, two stolen bases, and just three strikeouts in a dozen Spring Training games, .286/.362/.581 after a mid-season promotion to Triple-A last year and, over the full 2021 season, had 33 home runs and 29 stolen bases in the minors. The 22-year-old is widely considered one of the top two prospects in all of baseball and should be starting at third base for Kansas City on Opening Day.
Late games
Reds @ Braves (Tyler Mahle vs. Max Fried), 8:08 pm ET, ESPN 2
Astros @ Angels (Framber Valdez vs. Shohei Ohtani), 9:38 pm ET
Padres @ Diamondbacks (Yu Darvish vs. Madison Bumgarner), 9:40 pm ET
Here we have the defending World Series champions (Braves) and AL pennant winners (Astros), and a couple of wily veterans matching up in Arizona, but the game to see, and now the Game of the Day, is in Anaheim. It also happens to be the only fully national broadcast of the day, on ESPN2.
Defending AL MVP and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani begins his follow-up season by taking the mound for the Angels against those defending champion Astros. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are back from last year’s injuries, reuniting the Angels’ three stars in the lineup for the first time since May 17 of last year, and the new designated hitter rule will allow Ohtani to remain in that lineup for the full game, even after he is removed as a pitcher. There is considerable upside in the Angels’ batting order (though the probability of reaching much of it is slim), and the Astros are the team they are chasing as they try to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2014. On the Astros side, shortstop Jeremy Peña, who raked in camp, will make his major-league debut.
Friday, April 8: Opening Day, Part II
Thursday’s postponements swell Friday’s schedule to 13 games, including eight Opening Day contests, giving Friday more Opening Day games than Thursday.
Opening Games:
Red Sox @ Yankees (Nathan Eovaldi vs. Gerrit Cole), 1:05 pm ET, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
White Sox @ Tigers (Lucas Giolito vs. Eduardo Rodríguez), 1:10 pm ET
A’s @ Phillies (Frankie Montas vs. Aaron Nola), 3:05 pm ET
Orioles @ Rays (John Means vs. Shane McClanahan), 3:10 pm ET
Mariners @ Twins (Robbie Ray vs. Joe Ryan), 4:10 pm ET
Dodgers @ Rockies (Walker Buehler vs. Kyle Freeland), 4:10 pm ET, MLB.tv free game of the day
Marlins @ Giants (Sergio Alcantara vs. Logan Webb), 4:35 pm ET
Rangers @ Blue Jays (Jon Gray vs. José Berríos), 7:07 pm ET
The forecast in the Bronx for Friday is clear, so we should get that big Red Sox–Yankees matchup here, and that eclipses the White Sox–Tigers game as the Game of the Day on Friday. The Mariners-Twins game above is also rescheduled from Thursday, as Minneapolis is expected to get snow overnight Wednesday night followed by rain Thursday afternoon, then possibly more snow, while Friday is supposed to be dry and above 40 degrees.
Last year, the Red Sox and Yankees finished with identical 92-70 records. Per Baseball Prospectus’s deserved wins (derived from their deserved runs stats), the two teams really were that closely matched, with Boston “deserving” to win 90.4 games to the Yankees’ 90.2. With the playoffs expanded to include a third wild-card this year, it’s very possible, even likely, that the top four teams in the American League East will all reach the postseason, but the battle for the division, and a likely bye in the best-of-three first round, will be a fierce one. Boston and New York should be right in the thick of that battle all season.
That AL East action begins with the very first game of the 2022 regular season and two of the top four finishers in last year’s AL Cy Young voting (the Yankees’ Cole was second, Boston’s Eovaldi was fourth) taking the mound. Those two also happened to be the starting pitchers in the last game these two age-old rivals played against each other: last year’s AL Wild Card Game, which may prove to be the final one-game playoff in American League history. The Red Sox won that one 6–2, with Eovaldi dominating for 5 1/3 innings, Xander Bogaerts hitting a two-run home run off Cole in the bottom of the first, and Alex Verdugo driving in three runs after Cole was bounced from the game in the third. In addition to that ongoing storyline, Thursday’s opener should also mark Trevor Story’s Red Sox debut and Josh Donaldson’s Yankees debut.
Elsewhere, the Tigers look to carry over last year’s surprising success against the defending and presumed AL Central champion White Sox. Detroit went 68-61 (.527) from May 8 of last year through the end of the season, an 85-win pace that would put the Tigers in wild-card contention if they were to sustain it for all of 2022, and were aggressive this offseason, adding Javier Báez, Opening Day starter Eduardo Rodríguez, and, earlier this week, Austin Meadows, among others. Those three will make their Tigers debuts on Friday game. Also making his debut will be top prospect and 2020’s top draft pick Spencer Torkelson.
Other notable debuts in the games above include Freddie Freeman’s Dodgers debut, which comes opposite Kris Bryant’s Rockies debut. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien will debut as the Rangers’ double-play combination, the later facing the team he turned in a MVP-quality performance for last year, while his former A’s teammate, Matt Chapman, will debut as, effectively, Semien’s replacement with the Blue Jays (assuming everyone is up on their vaccinations, of course). Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos’s Phillies debuts will accompany what should be Bryson Stott’s major league debut. Defending AL Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray will make his Mariners debut, with Julio Rodríguez making his major-league debut behind him, and Carlos Correa and Gary Sánchez making their Twins debuts in the opposing lineup.
Also:
Brewers @ Cubs (Brandon Woodruff vs. Justin Steele), 2:20 pm ET
Mets @ Nationals (Max Scherzer? vs. TBA), 7:05 pm ET
Reds @ Braves (Reiver Sanmartin vs. TBA), 7:20 pm ET
Astros @ Angels (Jake Ororizzi vs. TBA), 9:38 pm ET
Padres @ Diamondbacks (Sean Manaea vs. Merrill Kelly), 9:40 pm ET
The Mets-Nationals game (at 7:05 pm ET) and Astros-Angels game (at 9:38 pm ET) will be the first to air on Apple TV+ (no subscription required). Max Scherzer, who has been battling a tight hamstring but had a successful bullpen on Tuesday, is projected to make his debut for the Mets, but has not been officially announced as the starter. If he does start, that’s enough to make that game the must-see in prime time. The attraction of Scherzer facing his former team is dimmed by the dearth of players remaining from start of the 2021 season, but Scherzer vs. Juan Soto is appointment television (or streaming, or whatever). Sean Manaea will make his Padres debut in the nightcap against the Diamondbacks
Notable Weekend Games
Saturday, April 9
Freddy Peralta vs. Marcus Stroman, Brewers @ Cubs, 2:20 pm ET
Justin Verlander’s first game since July 24, 2020, Astros @ Angels, 9:07 pm ET, MLB.tv free game of the day
Sunday, April 10
Hunter Greene’s major-league debut, Reds @ Braves, 1:36 pm ET
Michael Kopech’s transition to the rotation begins, White Sox @ Tigers, 1:10 pm ET
Next Week
Series to Watch:
Mets @ Phillies: This is the first head-to-head series in what could be a very exciting three-team National League East race. These two teams both spent big this offseason, the Phillies adding Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and a trio of veteran relievers, including ex-Mets Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia. The Mets, of course, added Max Scherzer (who, if he makes that Friday start, would return in the Wednesday finale of this series), Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Chris Bassitt (whose rotation spot will likely miss this series), among others. Last year, these two nearly split the season series, with Philadelphia winning 10 of 19 and outscoring the Mets by just four runs over those 19 games. This year will be the last (for now) in which these two rivals face each other that many times in the regular season.
Blue Jays @ Yankees: The AL East is just going to be relentless this year, with the top four teams each playing each other 19 times, that’s 114 games this year that, at least from our perspective heading into the season, will have a cachet similar the Yankees’ season-opening sets against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Last year, the Blue Jays had the fourth-best record in the division, but still won 91 games, and Baseball Prospectus’s deserved wins (based on their deserved runs statistics) tell us the Jays were actually the division’s best team.
Last year’s Jays took 11 of 19 from the Yankees, outscoring them by 11 runs in those games. They did all of that while playing at three different home ballparks. This year, the Jays will open in Toronto and, hopefully, play all 81 games there, but only vaccinated players will be able to travel to Toronto to play them. This four-game series is in the Bronx, so vaccination status won’t be an issue, which only makes it all the more imperative for the Yankees to capitalize on that homefield advantage.
Padres @ Giants: Heading into the season, I’m not quite sure what to expect from these two teams. I think the Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL West, once again. However, looking at last year’s deserved wins, the Giants weren’t a total fluke, coming in at 96 deserved wins, and the Padres weren’t nearly as bad as their on-field results, coming in at 91 deserved wins. I think both have a lot of variability going into this season, but I also think they’re obviously better than the Rockies and Diamondbacks, and possible wild-card contenders. This head-to-head series may not teach us much about their quality relative to the rest of the league, but it will be fun to see the two of them go up against each other, even if Fernando Tatis Jr. won’t be a part of the action.
Prognostication Station
I don’t much like making predictions, but, if taken in the right spirit, as a lark, little more than an educated guess given the many changes in circumstance that will occur over the next sixth months that cannot be foreseen, then I suppose they can be fun. I also appreciate that giving my predictions can help frame our conversation heading into the season, as they’ll give you a sense of the teams on which I’m bullish or bearish.
In that spirit, here are my predictions for the standings for the six divisions, plus the pennant and World Series winners. Playoff teams are in italics.
AL East
Blue Jays
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
The Blue Jays’ rotation is what makes me bullish on them this year. Matt Chapman and Kevin Gausman aren’t likely to fully replace what Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray did last year, but full seasons of José Berríos and Alek Manoa, plus Yusei Kikuchi stabilizing the fifth spot, give the Jays the best rotation in the league to go with the league’s best lineup (per this year’s Best of Everything). Mix in the fact that the Jays had the best deserved winning percentage in the American League last year (.601) and won’t have to change home ballparks every two months this year, and I think this could be a breakout season for this Blue Jays team.
AL Central
White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Royals
Guardians
Last year, the White Sox were the only team in this division with a winning record. They finished 13 games ahead of the second-place team, while the last-place team was only seven games out of second place. I see the division having a similar structure this year, with the Twins and Tigers struggling to reach .500 and having no relevance to the wild-card races other than as late-season spoilers, and the White Sox running away with the division.
AL West
Astros
Mariners
Angels
Rangers
A’s
I see the Mariners and Angels as wild-card contenders that fall just short of the postseason yet again, which is my hedge against what I see as the extreme variability of their potential outcomes, as well as a sop to their recent history. The Rangers and A’s will be quite a distance behind them.
Of the three division winners in the AL, I think the Blue Jays and White Sox will have the best records and thus get the bye in the first round of the playoffs, with the Astros, who have now lost George Springer and Carlos Correa to free agency over the last two offseasons without actively replacing either, forced to muck it up with the three wild-card teams from the AL East.
NL East
Braves
Mets
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals
I think the Mets and Phillies will be pretty close together, but not as close to the defending champion Braves, who have less collapse potential. The Marlins, who are significantly better than they were a year ago, will be closer to .500 than to the Nationals, who have gotten worse.
NL Central
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
The AL Central is pretty bad, overall, but the White Sox are a legitimately excellent team. I like the Brewers a lot, but I’m not sold on their lineup and think they will be the division winner with the weakest record in either league despite their soft intra-division competition. The Cardinals have a pitching problem. The Cubs are caught in between. The Reds did this to themselves, and the Pirates are hopeless.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks
The Dodgers don’t look like a 106-win team again, largely because their rotation is thinner and their depth there less impressive. Still, they look more like a 106-win team than the Giants, who I think will fall back below 90 wins despite the solid work they did reconstituting their rotation and the underrated potential of Carlos Rodón’s move from a hitter’s park in Chicago to a pitcher’s park in San Francisco. The Padres, meanwhile, were far better than their final record last year, and could make a big surge once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns, likely in mid-to-late June.
World Series: Blue Jays over Dodgers
I’m not getting cute here. I’m just picking what I already established I believe are the best teams in each league. I give the Jays the edge in the Series for reasons that will likely be irrelevant come October because of injuries, deadline additions, and the like, so let’s just say I think this is Toronto’s year.
New Duds, Vol. II
Last year, I compiled a collage, arranged roughly geographically, of the most notable new-but-familiar faces on each of the 30 teams, to give you a first look of sorts at these familiar players in their new uniforms. This year, it took a little longer for all of those faces to find their new places, and even longer for MLB.com to update all of their headshots, so you’ve likely already seen them in their new duds in exhibition games. Still, just in time for Opening Day, I was able to complete this year’s collage, which includes two familiar faces returning to familiar places (Zack Greinke’s headshot reminds me of Adam Scott in Severance), and a couple of new caps: the Guardians’ new home cap (on backup catcher Luke Maile, who appears likely to be the only outside addition to break camp with Cleveland), and a new home alternate for the Diamondbacks (on new closer Mark Melancon). Enjoy!
Final Spring Training Leaders
Spring Training statistics are ultimately meaningless. For example, the team with the best record last spring was the Miami Marlins (they won 67 games during the regular season), Randy Dobnak led in two pitching categories (he had a 7.64 ERA during the regular season), and Kevin Newman wowed everyone by hitting .606 (his regular-season average was .226). Still, leaderboards are always fun, and The Cycle’s reduced schedule prevented me from including the exhibition game highlights I featured last year. So, since they’re all we have right now, here are the leaders* in the major categories this spring:
*The Phillies and Rays, who start their seasons on Friday, have one game remaining on Wednesday. Every other team has concluded its exhibition schedule.
Batting
Home Runs: 7 – Kyle Higashioka, Yankees
Walks: 10 – Ji Man Choi, Rays
Hits: 17 – Edward Olivares, Royals
Doubles: 6 – Tony Kemp, Sean Murphy, A’s
Triples: 2 – Riley Greene, Tigers; Nick Allen, A’s; Brett Auerbach, Giants; Kyle Isbel, Adalberto Mondesi, Royals
Stolen Bases: 4 – Tyler Wade, Brandon Marsh, Angels; Jake Fraley, Reds; Andrés Giménez, Guardians; Greg Allen, Pirates; Thairo Estrada, Giants; Danny Mendick, White Sox
Rate Stats (minimum 15 at-bats)
AVG: .609 – Max Schrock, Reds (23 ABs)
OBP: .630 – Shrock
SGL: 1.231 – Higashioka (26 ABs)
Fewest strikeouts, min. 15 ABs:
Pitching
Strikeouts: 22 – Nick Pivetta, Red Sox (15 2/3 IP)
Rate Stats (minimum 5 IP)
ERA: 0.00 – Devin Smeltzer, Twins (11 IP, most among the many pitchers with 0.00 ERAs)
WHIP: 0.14 – Sandy Alcantara, Marlins; Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks (7 IP)
K/9: 18.90 – Colin Holderman, Mets (14 Ks in 6 2/3 IP)
K/BB: 20/1 – Aaron Nola, Phillies (14 1/3 IP)
Best Record
Cardinals, 9-5 (.643)
Feedback
I want to hear from you. Got a question, a comment, a request? Reply to this issue. Want to interview me on your podcast, send me your book, bake me some cookies? Reply to this issue. I will respond, and if I find your question particularly interesting, I’ll feature it in a future issue.
You can also write me at cyclenewsletter[at]substack[dot]com, or @ me on twitter @CliffCorcoran.
Closing Credits
Have I used Generation X’s “Ready Steady Go” as a Closing Credits song yet? I feel like I have, but I don’t have a master list of the songs I’ve used (I should make one), and it may be that I was saving it for exactly this issue. Either way, having used The Reducer’s “Let’s Go” last year, this is the next best thing.
Generation X, for those who are unaware, was a first-wave London punk band that formed in 1976. The band predated the Douglas Coupland novel that gave my generation its name by 15 years (my first fifteen years on this planet, coincidentally). In fact, the name of the band inspired the title of Coupland’s novel. The band itself took it’s name from a 1964 book on British youth culture by Jane Deverson and Charles Hamblett, the latter’s surname happening to be my preferred pronunciation of Shakespeare’s greatest play.
The primary creative forces in Generation X, the band, were guitarist Tony James, who would later form Sigue Sigue Sputnik and play bass for Sisters of Mercy, and singer William Broad, a.k.a. Billy Idol. Generation X put out three albums during their initial run with Idol, and “Ready Steady Go” was the first single from the first album, released in February 1978.
Generation X were big fans of the Who, and that’s plainly evident on “Ready Steady Go,” which both picks up on the slashing attack of early Who singles like “Can’t Explain” and echoes the lyrics of the Who’s “The Seeker” in the third verse. That verse doesn’t mention the Who, but it shouts out the Rolling Stones, the Beatles, and “Bobby Dylan.”
Ready Steady Go! (the phrase is a British version of “on your mark, get set, go”) was also the name of a British rock-and-pop program on the Independent Television network (ITV) in the mid ’60s. The Who appeared on that program during its run, and they released an EP in 1966 called Ready Steady Who soon after, though the music contained therein, including a cover of the Batman theme and the delightful oddity “Bucket T,” is not from their appearance on the show. The cool, young, female presenter on that show was Cathy McGowan, who is mentioned twice as an object of affection in the lyrics of the Generation X song.
“Ready Steady Go,” the Generation X single, didn’t have a huge impact upon its release, and Generation X, the band, are now generally considered also-rans in the initial wave of UK punk, a band that was a little to in touch with its classic-rock influences and pop instincts to be as transformative as the Sex Pistols or the Clash. However, both of those attributes served Idol well in his solo career, which he launched with a remix of Generation X’s “Dancing With Myself” in 1981 and an accompanying video that was perfectly timed, released mere months before the launch of MTV.
The next proper issue of The Cycle, should arrive toward the end of next week, near the transition from the second series of the season to the third. In the meantime, happy baseball, everyone!