The Cycle, Issue 110: Eastern Division Hot Stove Previews
The top offseason needs of the teams in the NL & AL East, plus quick takes on the Hall of Fame’s Early Baseball & Golden Days Era Committee ballots, & the weekend’s qualifying offer & option decisions
In this issue of The Cycle . . .
Hot Stove Previews: NL East and AL East
Hall of Fame Eras Committees: Quick takes on the 20 candidates on the Early Baseball and Golden Days ballots
Transaction Reactions: Option decisions, qualifying offers, plus Dusty Baker, Seiya Suzuki, and a surprising waiver claim
Shameless Self Promotion: The MLBTR Newsletter
Feedback
Closing Credits
Hot Stove Previews
This week, I will take you on a trip around the league to check in with each of the 30 teams and their biggest needs at the start of the offseason. I start today with the Eastern divisions and the defending champion Atlanta Braves.
A quick note on the header material below. Deserved Winning Percentage, which was provided courtesy of Robert Au of Baseball Prospectus, is the “deserved” stats equivalent of the old third-order wins, as it determines how many runs each team deserved to score and allow over the course of the season, after correcting for a myriad of external factors, then determines a team’s deserved winning percentage by applying the Pythagorean formula to those run totals (I have taken the additional step of translating those winning percentages into a 162-game record to make the comparison to the team’s actual 2021 results more intuitive).
Also, for the second year in a row, National League teams are heading into the offseason, and likely to spend a significant portion of that offseason, not knowing if they will have a designated hitter in their lineup in the coming year or not. My general impression is that NL teams are assuming that the universal DH will be in place in 2022, so I have included mention of potential designated hitters in the write-ups for the NL teams, where appropriate, but I have not gone as far as to task any NL team with adding a player with the explicit intention of filling the DH role.
National League East
Atlanta Braves
2021 record and result: 88-73 (.547), 1st in NL East, Won World Series
Deserved Winning Pct: (90-72) .558
Runs per Game (NL Rank): 4.91 (3rd)
Runs Allowed/G (NL Rank): 4.07 (4th)
Free Agents: 1B Freddie Freeman, OFs Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Joc Pederson, IF Ehire Adrianza, LHPs Drew Smyly and Grant Dayton, RHPs Chris Martin, Jesse Chavez, and Josh Tomlin
2022 Goal: Repeat as World Series champions
Biggest Need: To re-sign Freddie Freeman
The Braves won the World Series this year despite a variety of absences, but the offseason won’t be long enough to restore those losses. Ronald Acuña Jr. should return early in the 2022 season, but, following the anterior cruciate ligament tear in his right knee suffered in July, he might not be ready by Opening Day. Given Mike Soroka’s inability to return from his initial Achilles injury, suffered last August, the Braves should not plan on his return from the reoccurrence of the same injury this past June. Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna seems likely to avoid prison via his acceptance of a pretrial diversion program, but he’s still likely to incur a lengthy suspension from MLB and may not be welcomed back by the Braves, despite the $53 million they still owe him over the next three seasons (some of which will be alleviated by his unpaid disciplinary suspension).
Having inked Charlie Morton to a one-year extension in early September, the Braves should have enough starting pitching depth with Max Fried, Morton, and Ian Anderson supported by the usual cascade of talented young arms, including overlooked World Series hero Kyle Wright, fellow righties Huascar Ynoa, Touki Toussaint, and late-season call-up Spencer Strider, and lefties Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller. In the bullpen, the big four from their postseason run—Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter, and Luke Jackson—remain in place. On the other side of the ball, they extended catcher Travis d’Arnaud at the end of August, and have youngsters Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson in the infield.
That just leaves first base and the outfield as areas of acute need. In the outfield, they still have one year of team control over Adam Duvall, top prospect Cristian Pache now has a year-plus of triple-A under his belt, and there’s hope for 140 games or so of Acuña, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to retain postseason stars Jorge Soler or Eddie Rosario, with Soler’s return all the more likely if the DH comes to the NL next year.